Multi-scale geotechnical features of dredger fills and subsidence risk evaluation in reclaimed land using BN

Abstract

Shanghai has the largest newly reclaimed area in China’s coastal regions, and dredger fills are universally distributed in reclaimed lands there. Multi-scale geotechnical properties of dredger fills in region-scale (>1?km²), site-scale (1?m²–1?km²), mesoscale (1?cm²–1 m²), and microscale (1?µm²–1?cm²) were studied mainly through cone penetration investigation, borehole investigation, and microscopic inspections. Dredger impact craters, soil structures, and soil textures were investigated qualitatively and quantitatively to identify the dredger fills. Ultimate land subsidence since 1 July 2018 and land subsidence velocity characterized by the land subsidence from 1 July 2018 to 1 January 2019 were evaluated in Shanghai’s typical reclaimed regions. Afterwards, Bayesian network including sixteen variables was proposed for land subsidence risk assessment. Surface subsidence, land subsidence velocity, and comprehensive land subsidence were the most sensitive to data point location and average initial void ratio of underlying strata. These three risk variables were also highly correlated to the thickness of the dredger fill layer and the reclamation time. This finding indicates that variances of the four independent variables (i.e., data point location, average initial void of underlying strata, land reclamation time, and thickness of dredger fill layer) significantly decide variances of the three risk levels.     

Digital Tide-Coordinated Shoreline

The shoreline is one of the most important features on earth's surface. It is valuable to a diverse user community. But the dynamic nature of the shoreline makes it difficult to be represented in a naturally dynamic style and to be utilized in applications. The officially used shoreline, for example in nautical charts, is the so-called tide-coordinated shoreline. It is also the shoreline that makes the computation of shoreline changes and associated environmental changes meaningful. Mapping of the tide-coordinated shoreline has been very costly. On the other hand, instantaneous shorelines extracted from different data sources may be available. Also, high-resolution satellite and airborne imagery have the capacity of stereo imaging and can be used to extract instantaneous shorelines at a high accuracy and low cost. This article proposes an approach to derivation of digital tidecoordinated shorelines from (a) those instantaneous shorelines and (b) digital coastal surface models and a digital water surface model. Some preliminary study results, analysis, and the potential of the approach are discussed.     

北京市甲型H1N1流感对气象因子的时空响应

为研究北京市甲型H1N1流感对气象因子的时空响应规律,本文结合地理探测器及空间自相关分析方法,分析北京市甲型H1N1流感的时空分布情况,基于地理加权回归（GWR）模型,建立北京市甲型H1N1流感与平均风速、降雨量、平均湿度以及平均温度之间的回归模型。结果表明,降雨量对流感传播的影响不显著,平均风速与流感的传播主要呈现正相关,平均相对湿度与平均温度与流感的传播主要呈现负相关,其中,平均相对湿度的影响更为复杂。时间上,在流感感染人数快速上升的阶段,各气象因子的影响程度较为显著,而在流感传播速度减慢的阶段,气象因子的影响减弱;空间上,各气象要素对流感传播的影响在北京市4大功能分区上存在空间分异性,这与地区地形、风带、局地气候等因素有关。     

中国人口流动重力模型回归系数的定量估算及其空间异质性研究

基于中国337个地级及以上行政区划间人口省际流动数据,对人口流动重力模型代理变量的回归系数进行实证推算。结论包括：① 在地级行政单元研究精度下,中国人口流动重力模型代理变量的回归系数呈现出明显的空间异质性,及难以预期的作用效应,因此研究精度的提升将加剧空间交互模型构建的复杂程度,同时假定重力模型回归系数的空间均质性将导致模拟结果空间差异趋势的收敛;② 中国人口省际流动距离衰减系数为1.975,337个地级及以上行政区划距离衰减系数值域为0.434~4.438。研究所展示的各省该系数值域及直辖市、省会城市结果为今后模型应用提供了基础参考数据;③ 地级行政单元下的距离衰减系数存在空间异质性与梯度特征,高值区主要分布在东北沿疆、新疆和珠三角地区,低值区主要位于中国中部和西南地区。结合以往研究成果比较,中国人口省际流动的空间衰减特征与铁路客运网络的可达性格局存在一定程度的一致性。     

中国城市创新网络的时空复杂性及生长机制研究

以国家知识产权局专利转让记录为数据源,采用大数据挖掘与分析技术、空间分析技术、复杂网络模型和负二项回归模型,系统描绘了2001~2015年中国城市创新网络的拓扑结构、空间结构和生长机制。研究发现：① 中国城市创新网络规模迅速扩张,在两极分化下涌现出显著的小世界性和等级层次性,以北京、上海、深圳为核心的核心-边缘格局不断强化;② 以三角结构为基础的中国城市创新网络的四边形格局逐渐形成,京津、长三角、珠三角是中国城市专利转移的核心三角;③ 中国城市创新网络的生长与城市科技创新实力显著相关,且受到地理距离的阻抗作用,凸显出强烈的地理邻近性,另外城市经济发展水平相似度和产业结构相似度也是影响城市创新网络生长的重要因素。     

广州市生态系统服务价值空间异质性变化

基于广州市2004―2016年土地利用分类成果,通过CA-Markov模型模拟预测2020年土地利用状况,结合格网分析法构建广州市2004―2020年的生态系统服务价值（Ecosystem Services Value,ESV）密度格网,并展开Getis-Ord热点区分析和圈层分析评估,分析广州市快速城市化进程土地利用变化对ESV变化过程和影响的空间异质性。结果表明：1）广州市快速城市化进程中,建设用地扩张占用了大量生态用地,建设用地面积从2004年的1 320 km2扩张到2016年约2 000 km2,预计2020年将达到2 263.63 km2,生态用地斑块日趋破碎化;2）2004―2016年间,广州市ESV总值累计减少了92.41亿元,年均减少约8.4亿元,预计2016―2020年其继续减少但减速会放缓;3）ESV高值区域的格网数量净减少近18%,低值区域的格网数量净增加约46%,局部区域生态系统服务功能的改善难以抵消快速城市化造成的ESV损失;4）广州市ESV变化呈现局部空间自相关现象,高冷区常年集聚分布在花都区和番禺―南沙一带,高热区从集聚分布于东北部逐渐变成为零星分布;5）ESV圈层格局从中心城区向外围区（核心区、近郊区、边缘区和外围区）呈“低―低―中―高”向“低―低―低―高”的结构特征演变,地处城市边缘的近郊区域和边缘区域逐渐形成空间异质性最突出的城乡交错带。     

植被遥感辐射传输建模中的异质性研究进展

遥感辐射传输建模是在研究电磁波与地物相互作用机理的基础上,建立遥感观测信号与地物属性、地物结构和观测几何等参量之间定量关系的模型,是理解遥感观测信号和反演地表参量的理论基础。近年来空间异质性问题引起了定量遥感领域的高度关注,高分辨率卫星及激光雷达等数据的日益丰富给研究空间异质性提供了有力支撑。在异质性植被场景遥感辐射传输建模过程中,像元内部的组分比例、3维结构、空间格局以及端元边界处的阴影效应与散射过程等方面是需要重点考虑的因素。本文在总结非均质地表空间异质性描述的基础上,分别总结了植被二向性反射与热红外辐射方向性建模研究的发展历程,以及非均质地表植被遥感建模研究的最新进展,并指出了地表遥感建模中研究异质性问题的发展方向。     

秦岭─大别造山带及其南北缘地震层析成像

利用秦岭─大别造山带及其毗邻地区３１０个地震台站记录到的区域地震２３６００条Ｐ波到时数据，重建了该区地壳和上地幔三维速度图像。结果表明：１．秦岭─大别造山带及其毗邻地区地壳和上地幔存在显著的横向不均匀性，直至１１０ｋｍ深度处依然明显。２．地壳上部的速度图像与地表地质构造密切相关：造山带隆起区显著高速；盆地及坳陷区明显低速。由速度鲜明对比勾勒出的秦岭─大别造山带南界基本上位于扬子北缘主边断裂带上。３．中地壳的速度图像表明，造山带内部的一些低速区对应于一些大型推覆构造。４．４０＋０ｋｍ深度处的速度图像反映了该区莫霍界面深度的起伏。大致以１０７°Ｅ为界，以东地区地壳厚度小于４０ｋｍ，以西地区大于４０ｋｍ，且呈现出往西地壳逐渐加厚的趋势。５．位于滦川、商县、丹凤的北秦岭构造带，上地幔顶部出现低速异常，异常速度值约为７．３９—７．５５ｋｍ／ｓ。结合地球物理测深的结果，可能是由下地壳、上地幔顶部的热过程所致。     

Analysis of induced seismicity for stress field determination and pore pressure mapping

The focal mechanisms of some one hundred microseismic events induced by various water injections have been determined. Within the same depth interval, numerous stress measurements have been conducted with the HTPF method. When inverted simultaneously, the HTPF data and the focal plane solutions help determine the complete stress field in a fairly large volume of rock (about 15×10⁶ m³). These results demonstrate that hydraulically conductive fault zones are associated with local stress heterogeneities. Some of these stress heterogeneities correspond to local stress concentrations with principal stress magnitudes much larger than those of the regional stress field. They preclude the determination of the regional stress field from the sole inversion of focal mechanisms. In addition to determining the regional stress field, the integrated inversion of focal mechanisms and HTPF data help identify the fault plane for each for each of the focal mechanisms. These slip motions have been demonstrated to be consistent with Terzaghi's effective stress principle and a Coulomb friction law with a friction coefficient ranging from 0.65 to 0.9. This has been used for mapping the pore pressure in the rock mass. This mapping shows that induced seismicity does not outline zones of high flow rate but only zones of high pore pressure. For one fault zone where no significant flow has been observed, the local pore pressure has been found to be larger than the regional minimum principal stress but no hydraulic fracturing has been detected there.     

Quantitative analysis of land surface topography

Land surface topography significantly affects the processes of runoff and erosion. A system which determines slope, aspect, and curvature in both the down-slope and across-slope directions is developed for an altitude matrix. Also, the upslope drainage area and maximum drainage distance are determined for every point within the altitude matrix. A FORTRAN 66 program performs the analysis.