中亚低涡背景下阿克苏地区一次强降水天气分析

为了加强对新疆暴雨过程的中尺度系统发展机理的认识,利用美国环境预测中心的FNL、欧洲中期数值预报中心的全球再分析资料、中国气象局提供的地面自动气象站观测资料、中国国家卫星气象中心提供的卫星辐射亮温（TBB）资料及WRF高分辨率数值模拟对2013年6月17—18日发生在新疆阿克苏地区的一次暴雨天气过程进行分析。结果表明,此次降水过程是发生在中高纬度“两脊一槽”的环流形势下,中亚低涡为这次暴雨的发生提供了有利的天气尺度动力及水汽条件;中亚低涡环流与天山南脉特殊地形造成的气流绕流叠加生成的中尺度辐合线是此次强降水的重要中尺度影响系统,山谷地形热力性质差异造成的下坡风推动辐合线移动,辐合线上发展的强对流引发了阿克苏地区的强降水。WRF模拟结果能够基本再现本次天气过程的降水落区、强度以及风场演变等。结合观测以及模拟资料进行的初步分析显示,西天山的阻挡导致偏南风在西天山南坡山谷附近产生堆积和辐合,山谷附近有局地的地形辐合线形成。同时,随着大尺度环流形势的调整,中亚低涡移动至阿克苏地区附近后,低涡南部的偏西气流一部分直接越过西天山变为西北风,另一部分穿过伊犁河谷转为东北风,这两支气流共同加剧了天山南脉阿克苏地区的偏北气流,促进了西天山南坡山谷附近中尺度辐合线的加强。辐合线以东的偏东气流带来的水汽在天山南脉前堆积,随着夜间山谷下坡风的增强作用,中尺度辐合线在向东南方向推进过程中不断发展加强,配合山脚堆积的水汽和辐合抬升,不稳定能量释放,对流发展,为阿克苏地区带来强降水天气。      

单砂体高部位油水倒置分布的成因机制

成藏地质条件的复杂多变控制了油水分布的复杂性和多样性,尤其是在低渗透油藏中。断层圈闭油藏和岩性油藏中存在一种类似的油水倒置分布样式,即由单砂体高部位向低部位,依次为水层、含油水层、油水同层、油层、油水同层、含油水层、水层。通过分析两种油藏类型中低渗透砂体储层高部位油水倒置的控制因素,探讨了油水倒置的两种成因机制。分析结果表明,断层圈闭为主的油藏中,造成油水倒置的主要原因是断层封闭性的历史性差异,其次是储集层物性和渗透率级差;而上倾尖灭砂体岩性油藏中,造成油水倒置的主要因素是储集层物性及其变化,尤其是储层层内非均质性。同时,分析结果进一步表明,油水倒置系统中,存在低电阻率油层。     

农户保护性耕作技术采纳行为及其影响因素研究综述

保护性耕作对于防止水土流失、改善土壤质量、保障国家粮食安全等具有重要意义。农户作为保护性耕作技术采纳的直接决策者,研究其采纳行为及其影响因素有助于促进保护性耕作技术的推广应用。基于此,论文系统梳理了国内外农户保护性耕作技术采纳行为及其影响因素的相关研究,以期为更有效的技术推广提供参考。结果发现：不同类型农户的保护性耕作技术采纳行为存在较大差异;农户保护性耕作技术采纳的研究区域较为集中;影响农户保护性耕作技术采纳行为的因素主要包括基本因素(个体特征和家庭特征)和差别因素(社会网络、风险偏好与风险感知、政府政策、心理认知及区位特征)2类。基于上述分析,论文提出了未来重点的研究方向：技术推广要考虑农户群体内的异质性;应注重各种研究理论间的融合;未来可进一步加强多学科交叉的系统研究。     

基于高斯混合模型的建筑物QuickBird多光谱影像数据分类研究

针对任何一种遥感影像数据的信息提取都有其无法逾越的理论极限,正确认识这种极限有利于明确相关算法研究的方向,降低工程应用成本.制约影像信息提取精度的"同物异谱"现象以及与之相关的影像对象"光谱异质性"问题正是科学认识这种极限的关键和切入点.城市下垫面中的建筑物屋顶材料不同,光谱反射率也不同,"同物异谱"现象严重.基于高斯混合模型的期望最大(Expectation Maximization,EM)估计算法,能为分析建筑物类内以及同一建筑物对象内部光谱异质性程度提供科学依据, 进而提高分类精度.本文以QuickBird多光谱影像为实证研究数据, 利用高斯混合模型及其EM估计算法拟合出不同材料屋顶的密度分布, 实现建筑物影像对象分类, 得到优于传统监督、非监督分类的结果.     

Recognition of shallow karst water resources and cave potentials using thermal infrared image and terrain characteristics in semi-arid regions of Iran

Shallow karst water resources and caves may influence land surface temperatures due to cold transfer property of rocks and evaporation from buried karst. The objective of this research was to develop a method for recognition of karst areas based on evaluating the surface characteristics that manifest itself by low land surface temperature in the satellite images. Investigation of thermal ETM⁺ image of the study region in Iran showed that parts of carbonate rocks that bear karst water are relatively cooler compared to areas with similar terrain conditions. Relational modeling provided useful information on spatial distribution of areas that have the potential to hold karst water resources and/or caves. Further inspection of ASTER images, along with geotechnical, geophysical and geological field surveys verified the approach. Significant correlation was found between electrical resistivity and thermal band values. The method may be used as a primary exploratory tool for shallow karst water explorations in similar areas.     

Spatial and seasonal variations of fish assemblages in mangrove creek systems in Zanzibar (Tanzania)

Spatial and seasonal variations of fish assemblage composition were studied in three non-estuarine mangrove creeks of Zanzibar (Tanzania). Fish were collected monthly for one year at three sites (lower, intermediate and upper reaches) in each creek using a seine net (each haul covering 170 m²). Density, species number and diversity of fish were all higher at sites with dense cover of macrophytes (seagrass and macroalgae) than over unvegetated sandy sites. In general, fish assemblages mainly comprised juveniles of a few abundant taxa, e.g. Mugil cephalus, Mugilidae spp. and Leiognathus equulus at sites with mud substratum and Gerres oyena, Lethrinus harak and Sillago sihama at sites dominated by macrophytes. Multivariate analyses revealed significant separations in fish assemblage composition within the two creeks where the bottom substratum differed among sites. Overall, season seemed to have little effect on density, species number, diversity index (H′) and assemblage structure of fish. Water condition variables were also relatively stable across the season, although a short-term fluctuation primarily induced by decreased salinity, occurred during the heavy rains in April and May. Fish assemblage structure was not significantly affected by any of the abiotic factors tested. However, significant regressions were found between the other fish variables and environmental variables, but since these associations were mostly species-specific and generally inconsistent, we suggest that the overall distribution patterns of fish were mainly an effect of particular substrate preferences of fish species rather than contemporary water conditions.     

沉积相控建模法的系统误差及消除方法

相控建模方法的2个关键因素是储层概念模型的建立和沉积相类型的划分,决定了储层非均质性的类型及强度,是相控模型精度的主控因素。沉积相控建模思路及工作方法决定了相控模型精度受人为影响,结合储层非均质性分析,目前常用的"优势相"方法划分沉积相具有固有缺陷,在定性分析的基础上,从模型正演的角度对这一点进行了论证。分析表明,细分地层框架是这一问题的有效解决办法。进而提出高分辨率层序地层精细格架约束下的岩石相控建模思路,在保障建模单元等时性的同时,提高储层模型的精细程度。实际工作表明,岩石相控建模方法很大程度上排除了人为划分优势相而带来的系统误差,从方法本身出发克服了相控建模方法的这一缺陷,对油田开展精细油藏描述工作具有重要的指导意义。     

Simulating damage evolution and fracture propagation in sandstone containing a preexisting 3-D surface flaw under uniaxial compression

Preexisting flaws and rock heterogeneity have important ramifications on the process of rock fracturing and on rock stability in many applications. Therefore, there is great interest in numerical modelling of rock fracture and the underlying mechanisms. We simulated damage evolution and fracture propagation in sandstone specimens containing a preexisting 3-D surface flaw under uniaxial compression. We applied the linear elastic damage model based on the unified strength theory following the rock failure process analysis code. However, in contrast to the rock failure process analysis code, we used the finite element method with tetrahedron elements on unstructured meshes. It provided higher geometrical flexibility and allowed for a more accurate representation of the disk-shaped flaw with various flaw depths, angles, and lengths through locally adapted meshes. The rock heterogeneity was modelled by sampling the initial local Young's modulus from a Weibull distribution over a cubic grid. The values were then interpolated to the computational finite element method mesh. This method introduced an additional length scale for the rock heterogeneity represented by the cell size in the sampling grid. The generation of three typical surface cracking patterns, called wing cracks, anti-wing cracks, and far-field cracks, were identified in the simulation results. These depend on the geometry of the preexisting surface flaw. The simulated fracture propagation, coalescence types, and failure modes for the specimens with preexisting surface flaw show good agreement with recent experimental studies.