投影寻踪门限自回归模型在海洋冰情预测中的应用

为预测海洋冰情时序这类非线性动力系统，提出了投影寻踪门限自回归（PPTAR）模型。用自相关分析技术确定预测因子，构造了新的投影指标函数，用门限回归（TR）模型描述投影值与预测对象间的非线性关系，并用实码加速遣传算法优化投影指标函数和TR模型参数。实例的计算结果表明，用PPTAR模型预测海洋冰情时序是可行和有效的，PPTAR模型简便，适用性强，克服了目前投影寻踪方法计算量大，编程实现困难的缺点，有助于投影寻踪方法的推广应用。为解决非线性时序复杂预测问题提供了新的途径。     

大亚湾水温层化的季节性突变

大亚湾是粤东的一个山地溺谷湾,1987～1989年间我们采用锚碇AANDERAA自记仪器,在大亚湾近湾口处C_2、C_4两站(图1)分别进行了多层次逐时水温连续观测,两次记录了夏秋之交水温分层状态演变过程的时间序列,发现每年9月上、中旬大亚湾水温层化状态有一突变,从垂直分层过度到垂直均一状态,该过度过程历时短暂,仅数天时间。     

温度对草鱼能量收支的影响

于１９９２年４月－１９９２年５月在２２，２６及３０℃，以莴苣叶为食物，不限量摄食，测定草鱼的能量收支。结果表明，草鱼摄食率及生长率均随温度上升而增加；最大摄食率与水温的关系温度对食物能分配于能量收支各组分的比例没有显著影响，在３个温度测定的平均能量收支式为：１００ｃ＝２９．８９Ｆ＋３．３０Ｕ＋５２．４８Ｒ＋１４．３４Ｇ，式中Ｃ为食物能，Ｆ为排粪能，Ｕ为排泄能，Ｒ为代谢能，Ｇ为生长能。     

Station Papa Time Series: Insights into Ecosystem Dynamics

The Northeast Pacific has one of the longest time series of any open ocean station, primarily as a result of the weathership station at Station P from the 1950s to 1981. This review summarizes our understanding of the plankton ecosystem for this station and examines interannual variability for the primary producers. The weathership era characterized a period of high temporal sampling resolution with a limited number of parameters being measured. In contrast, the post-weathership period focussed on seasonal sampling (usually three times per year), but a wider range of parameters were measured and sediment traps were deployed to estimate carbon and opal flux rates. The mixed layer depth is shallow compared to the Atlantic Ocean, ranging from 40 to 120 m in late summer and winter respectively. Nitrate, silicate and phosphate are saturating year round with only a few exceptions in the 1970s. Winter and summer Si:N ratios are the same (1.5:1). Ammonium and urea are 0.5 uM in winter and near detection limits (∼0.1 uM) in late summer. Iron is limiting (∼0.05 nM) in late spring and summer for the growth of large diatoms, but iron is co-limiting with irradiance in winter. Chlorophyll and primary productivity are low and show little seasonal variation (about 2 times). Summer chl is about 20 mg m⁻² while primary productivity ranges from 400–850 mg C m⁻²d⁻¹. The f-ratio of 0.25 does not vary with seasons and indicates that primary productivity is fueled by regenerated nitrogen (e.g. NH₄ and urea). Small cells (<5 um) are normally abundant and they utilize regenerated nitrogen produced by the micrograzers; they do not appear to be Fe-limited, but rather controlled by the micrograzers. Shipboard carboy experiments indicate that large diatoms become dominant when iron is added. Therefore top down control is exerted by the micrograzers on the small cells, while there is bottom up control of the large phytoplankton due to low Fe concentrations. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Study of evolution forecast of the area of the Huanghe River mouth

From 1979 to 1989, the current Qingshuigou course of the Huanghe River formed a sub - delta which resembles a beak extending into the Laizhou Bay. It covers 618 km2 in area. To meet the needs of developing and constructing the Huanghe River Delta and under the presupposition of keeping the current course for 15-20 a, we forecast mainly by using the OM (1, 1) model that the front border of the sub-delta will be close to 119°30'E and its area will become 923 km2by the end of the year 2000. The Huanghe River will make land 760 km2 in area.     

黄、东海秋季温、盐度垂直分布类型及其逆转现象成因的初步分析

用１９８３年１１月在黄、东海调查的水文观测资料，分析了该海区温、盐度 垂直分布类型的地理分布，详细地讨论了秋季温、盐度逆转现象的形成原因。分析 得出，在研究海区内，引起温、盐度逆转现象的原因有：（１）海面失热冷却产生的垂 直对流作用；（２）秋季季风已转变为北风，在北风（特别是北风大风）的驱动下，迫使 表层水向南向外扩张的影响；（３）深层暖平流（台湾暖流和黄海暖流）向岸向北伸展 或切入的影响；（４）在锋区，高温（或低温）高盐（或低盐）水沿等面扩展的影响。