洞庭盆地的第四纪构造活动

依据第四系分统等厚度图,分析了洞庭盆地第四纪构造活动的演变。早更新世及晚更新世表现为盆地东西两侧对边掀斜,沉积中心呈近南北向伸延;中更新世及全新世,迎丰桥-北景港断裂两侧断块反向扭动掀斜,以致盆地西北角和东南角掀升,并形成与此主掀升部位相应的俯伏部位,其伸延方向与主掀升部位的掀斜方向垂直     

门限自回归模型在地震预报中的应用初探

本文简要介绍了应用门限自回归方法处理浑沌时间序列,建立了浑沌时间序列自回归预报模型,并用其进行外推预报的基本方法及步骤。作者运用该方法建立了云南及滇西、滇东和滇西南等三个片区的半年最大震级序列的震级预报模型。由此预测了1991年上半年模型相应地区可能发生的最大地震震级。     

大气层结和天气尺度位温扰动对锋生的作用

文中利用半地转锋生模式考虑了三种不同大气层结廓线和两种不同水平温度对比的天气尺度位温扰动场的作用。计算结果表明,层结对锋生速度影响较小,对锋区垂直运动影响却很大;天气尺度位温扰动对锋生速度和锋区垂直运动都有相当大的影响。     

Observed advantage for negative binomial over Poisson distribution in partial duration series

The goodness of fit of the negative binomial and the Poisson distributions to partial duration series of runoff events is tested. The data have been recorded by eight hydrometric stations located on ephemeral rivers in Isreal. For each station, a number of threshold discharges are considered, by that series of nested subsamples are formed. Owing to size limitations, a Chi-square test is conducted on samples associated with low to moderate threshold discharges. Positive results, at a 5% significance level, are obtained in 30 out of the 53 tests of the Poisson distribution, and in 22 out of the 28 tests of the negative binomial distribution. The fit of the Poisson distribution to samples of conventionally recommended sizes (of 2 to 3 events per year) is found positive for five rivers and negative for the three other rivers The fit of the negative binomial distribution to these samples is found positive for six rivers, inconclusive for one river and short of data for the eighth river. Mixed results are obtained as the threshold level is raised. Therefore, no direct extrapolation is possible to samples associated with high thresholds.An indirect extrapolation is drawn through a comparison of the actual properties of the samples with those expected under a perfect fit of the distribution functions. Ranges of such properties are defined with respect to the properties of the tested samples and to the test results. The actual properties of nine of the eleven samples associated with high thresholds (i.e. mean number of events <-0.1year ^–1) are found within these ranges. This provides a hint for a probable good fit of either distribution, and particularly the negative binomial, to the occurrence frequency of high events.     

渭河盆地及邻近地区地震活动分析

运用平稳正态序列穿过理论方法对渭河盆地和陕南地区近期的地震活动趋势进行了分析和讨论,得到了较好的结果,并对该方法的结果进行了检验。     

新疆北部花岗岩类的稀土特征

新疆北部的改造系列花岗岩演化由斜长花岗岩阶段、钾长花岗岩阶段至碱长花岗岩阶段,其稀土配分组成递降曲线簇.新疆北部的同熔型花岗岩类稀土配分基本为轻稀土富集型,具Eu负异常,有递增曲线簇和递降曲线簇两种情况.深源碱性系列轻重稀土比值大、Eu负异常一般不显著.文中还叙述了新疆北部的幔分异系列花岗岩类及一些古老花岗岩的稀土特征.     

Fractal Method for Statistical Analysis Geological Data

This paper establishes the phase space in the light of spacial series data,discussesthe fractal structure of geological data in terms of correlated functions and studies thechaos of these data.In addition,it introduces the R/S analysis for time series analysisinto spacial series to calculate the structural fractal dimensions of ranges and standard de-viation for spacial series data,and to establish the fractal dimension matrix and the proce-dures in plotting the fractal dimension anomaly diagram with vector distances of fractal di-mension.At last,it has examples of its application.     

西南极菲尔德斯半岛第三纪钙碱性火山岩的生成与演化

西南极菲尔德斯半岛第三纪火山岩的岩石学和岩石化学特征表明,它们基本属于钙碱性火山岩系列,是岛弧火山作用的产物。该岩石组合中,随岩石中SiO_2含量的增加,斜长石斑晶数量减少,微量元素Cr、V丰度降低,Sr、Ba丰度下降,这些揭示了岩浆中斜长石和单斜辉石的分离结晶作用。稀土元素的系统变化也证明了这一点。主元素和微量元素的定量计算所验证了岩浆的分离结晶作用演化过程。     

On the lengths of crossing exursions: the case of a discrete normal process with underlying exponential autocovariance

An expression is derived for the probability distribution of excursion lengths above a fixed level, for the specific case of a discrete random process sampled from an underlying, continuous normal process with exponential autocovariance function. The expression can be integrated numerically for small excursion lengths, and used with time-series simulations to qualitatively reveal the form of the distribution. Such computations indicate that excursions lengths are well approximated by a Weibull distribution to at least the 0.95 probability value. The fit improves with increasing fixed level, and with decreasing time constant of the process. In addition, an expression is given for the expected number of crossings of a fixed level, analogous to well known formulae used in estimating expected values for the cases of a continuous process and a discrete stepped process.