高维PP时间序列分析在地震预报中的应用

将投影寻踪(PP)与高维时间序列分析结合起来，建立了地震PP综合预测模型。并选取祁连山地区作研究区，做了未来三个月内最大震级的短期预测，经展望式检验，合格率(预测误差≤0．5或≤10％)≥80％。中根据实际需要提出建立一定震级门限(M≥4．0)的预测具有更好的效果。本预测模型还可增加自变量、维数和改变时间尺度，并运用到其他领域中。     

邛崃4.5级地震与震后趋势判断

邛崃地震发生后，成都市地震局很快做出反应，及时开展了地震考察并做出了正确的震后趋势判断，取得了较好的社会效益。     

Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.     

Copper-Polymetal Metallogenic Series and Prospecting Perspective of Eastern Section of Gangdise

Geological, geophysical, geochemical and remote sensing comprehensive studies show that big ore-prospecting potentiality is contained in the eastern section of the Gangdise Mountains, Tibet.There are various mineralization types with dominant types of porphyry and exhalation. According to their relations with tectonic evolution, they are divided into four kinds of metallogenic series as follows:magnmtic type (Cr, Pt, Cu, Ni) and exhalation type (Cu, Pb, Zn, Ag) ore deposit series related to Neo-Tethys oceanic crust subduction action (125-96 Ma); epithermai type (Au, Ag, Pb, Zn, Sb), altered fractured rock type (Cu, Mo) and skarn rock type (Cu) ore deposit series related to arc-continental collision; porphyry type (Cu, Mo), cryptoexplosion breccia type (Cu, Au, Pb, Zn), shear zone type (Au, Ag, Sb) and skarn rock type (Cu, Fe) ore deposit series with relation to post-orogenic extensional strike-slip. From subductive complex to the north, zoning appears to be crystallization differentiation type (segregation type)-shear zone type (altered rock type)-skarn rock type, epithermai type-porphyry type-porphyry type and exhalation type-exhalation type-hydrothermai filling-replacement type.The ore deposit is characterized by multi-places from the same source, parity and multi-stage, hypabyssal rock from the deep source and poly genetic compound as a whole.     

Boreal temperature variability inferred from maximum latewood density and tree-ring width data, Wrangell Mountain region, Alaska

Variations in both width and density of annual rings from a network of tree chronologies were used to develop high-resolution proxies to extend the climate record in the Wrangell Mountain region of Alaska. We developed a warm-season (July–September) temperature reconstruction that spans A.D. 1593–1992 based on the first eigenvector from principal component analysis of six maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies. The climate/tree-growth model accounts for 51% of the temperature variance from 1958 to 1992 and shows cold in the late 1600s–early 1700s followed by a warmer period, cooling in the late 1700s–early 1800s, and warming in the 20th century. The 20th century is the warmest of the past four centuries. Several severely cold warm-seasons coincide with major volcanic eruptions. The first eigenvector from a ring-width (RW) network, based on nine chronologies from the Wrangell Mountain region (A.D. 1550–1970), is correlated positively with both reconstructed and recorded Northern Hemisphere temperatures. RW shows a temporal history similar to that of MXD by increased growth (warmer) and decreased growth (cooler) intervals and trends. After around 1970 the RW series show a decrease in growth, while station data show continued warming, which may be related to increasing moisture stress or other factors. Both the temperature history based on MXD and the growth trends from the RW series are consistent with well-dated glacier fluctuations in the Wrangell Mountains and some of the temperature variations also correspond to variations in solar activity.     

Global thermal and dynamical perturbations due to Cretaceous mantle avalanche

The numerical models of mantle convection agree to depict avalanches behaviour according to the level of endothermicity of the spinel → perovskite phase change. Their potential effects on the global thermal and dynamical states of the mantle have been computed thanks to a numerical code, which takes into account both the 400-km exothermic and the 660-km endothermic phase changes. The cycle followed by the avalanches is: local layering, destabilization of the 660-km thermal layer, travelling and spreading on the core, and reappearing of the local layering. Therefore, mantle convection is characterized by quiet periods of partial layering embedded in catastrophic events. During the avalanche, the amplitude of the surface velocity is multiplied by two, which would imply an enhanced plate tectonic and ridge activities. The global thermal effects of the avalanche are compatible with a high mantle temperature and an acceleration of Earth's rotation during the Cretaceous. They also offer a coherent explanation to locate the origin of mantle plumes both within the CMB and just below the transition zone.     

卫星测高问题的球谐级数解法

研究了球界面下卫星测高问题的解法，利用有限逼近方法得到了下列结论：若陆地部分是球冠，则卫星测高问题的解可以转换成关于球谐级数位系统的线性方程组。同时证明了常用的Stokes问题、Dirichlet问题、Neumann问题可以看成卫星测高问题的特殊情况。     

强震前大气层中温压相关特征的异常显示

对中国大陆已发生的多次7级以上强震震中区气温、气压资料进行了研究，结果表明：在大震前（30天之内），气温－气压函数的平衡状态被破坏，其相关系数（代数值）不断增大，“正弓”形可作为短临异常的标志，同时对其成因也进行了初步探讨。     

温度客观预报自动化业务系统

介绍了一以Ｔ６３数值预报产品为因子，用卡尔曼滤波方法作４８小时最高，最低温度客观预报方法及其自动化业务系统，能补充目前地市台温度预报主要依靠主观预报的不足，对温度有一定的预报能力。     

Multiresolution Flux Decomposition

Geophysical variables are orthogonally decomposed by averaging timeseries using different averaging lengths, referred to as a (Haar)multiresolution decomposition. This simple and economic decomposition isassociated with cospectra that formally satisfy Reynolds averaging rules foreach averaging length. The multiresolution decomposition provides a naturalestimate of the random error in estimating a mean turbulent flux. The Fourierand multiresolution decompositions are compared using aircraft data fromBOREAS.