降水和温度MOS预报方法探讨

文中分析了庆阳地区春季降水气候特征和环流形势 ,用 1995～ 1998年 3～ 5月T10 6资料建立了该区 8县 (市 )春季降水、温度MOS预报方程 ,进行了回代检验和试报 ,并提出了模式更换后的处理方法     

回溯时间积分格式的有效性研究

采月正压准地转模式作为动力核,用Rossby-Haurwitz波函数作为理想场,同时使用回溯时间积分格式和普通中央差格式进行数值试验.结果表明,在短时积分的情况下,回溯格式能减小数值解误差1～2个量级,而且它对时间步长的增大不敏感.因此使用回溯格式可以减少积分计算量,延长积分时效.     

铁路沿线灾害性天气监测、预测、预警系统

针对铁路三防（防风，防沙，防洪）的需要，结合大风监测系统建设的实际，对恶劣天气气候条件下，如何保障列车运行安全进行了探讨，并提出铁路沿线灾害性天气监测，预测，预警系统。     

一种插值相似方法作温度预测的应用研究

将插值方法运用到短期气象预测中，其基本原理是按照相似原理将产生相似结果来作预报。对云南昆明等四站温度进行了九年定性和定量预报检验，结果表明：这种方法具有良好的预报能力，可以作要素预报应用。     

实测天然气扩散系数在地层条件下的校正

在研究天然气在地下岩石中扩散机理及扩散系数测试方法的基础上，指出了实测天然气扩散系数与地层条件下的差异，利用实测饱和水和干样条件下人造石英粉砂岩的扩散系数值的比值与其物性之间的关系，利用爱因斯坦方程产实测天然气扩散系数的饱和介质转换和温度校正方法，该方法的实际应用表明，校正结果符合地质规律，表明该校正方法是可行的。     

温度对复分解法制硝酸钾生产过程的影响

探讨以硝酸铵和氯化钾为原料、复分解法制硝酸钾工艺中 ,配料、硝酸钾结晶、氯化铵结晶等处操作温度对产量、质量、操作时间等的影响     

Comparative study of electron density from incoherent scatter measurements at Arecibo with the IRI-95 model during solar maximum

Arecibo (18.4 N, 66.7 W) incoherent scatter (IS) observations of electron density N(h) are compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-95) during midday (10/14 h), for summer, winter and equinox, at solar maximum (1981). The N(h) profiles below the F2 peak, are normalized to the peak density NmF2 of the F region and are then compared with the IRI-95 model using both the standard B0 (old option) and the Gulyaeva-B0 thickness (new option). The thickness parameter B0 is obtained from the observed electron density profiles and compared with those obtained from the IRI-95 using both the options. Our studies indicate that during summer and equinox, in general, the values of electron densities at all the heights given by the IRI model (new option), are generally larger than those obtained from IS measurements. However, during winter, the agreement between the IRI and the observed values is reasonably good in the bottom part of the F2 layer but IRI underestimates electron density at F1 layer heights. The IRI profiles obtained with the old option gives much better results than those generated with the new option. Compared to the observations, the IRI profiles are found to be much thicker using Gulyaeva-B0 option than using standard B0.     

Climate induced temperature effects on growth performance, fecundity and recruitment in marine fish: developing a hypothesis for cause and effect relationships in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and common eelpout (Zoarces viviparus)

Effects of global warming on animal distribution and performance become visible in many marine ecosystems. The present study was designed to develop a concept for a cause and effect understanding with respect to temperature changes and to explain ecological findings based on physiological processes. The concept is based on a wide comparison of invertebrate and fish species with a special focus on recent data obtained in two model species of fish. These fish species are both characterized by northern and southern distribution limits in the North Atlantic: eelpout (Zoarces viviparus), as a typical non-migrating inhabitant of the coastal zone and the cod (Gadus morhua), as a typical inhabitant of the continental shelf with a high importance for fisheries.Mathematical modelling demonstrates a clear significant correlation between climate induced temperature fluctuations and the recruitment of cod stocks. Growth performance in cod is optimal at temperatures close to 10°C, regardless of the population investigated in a latitudinal cline. However, temperature specific growth rates decrease at higher latitudes. Also, fecundity is less in White Sea than in North and Baltic Sea cod or eelpout populations. These findings suggest that a cold-induced shift in energy budget occurs which is unfavorable for growth performance and fecundity. Thermal tolerance limits shift depending on latitude and are characterized by oxygen limitation at both low or high temperatures. Oxygen supply to tissues is optimized at low temperature by a shift in hemoglobin isoforms and oxygen binding properties to lower affinities and higher unloading potential. Protective stimulation of heat shock protein synthesis was not observed.According to a recent model of thermal tolerance the downward shift of tolerance limits during cold adaptation is associated with rising mitochondrial densities and, thus, aerobic capacity and performance in the cold, especially in eurythermal species. At the same time the costs of mitochondrial maintenance reflected by mitochondrial proton leakage should rise leaving a lower energy fraction for growth and reproduction. The preliminary conclusion can be drawn that warming will cause a northern shift of distribution limits for both species with a rise in growth performance and fecundity larger than expected from the Q₁₀ effect in the north and lower growth or even extinction of the species in the south. Such a shift may heavily affect fishing activities in the North Sea.     

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

Electronic absorption spectra of Fe2+ ions in oxygen-based rock-forming minerals at temperatures between 297 and 600 K

 Polarized electronic single crystal spectra of natural Fe²⁺ ion-bearing oxygen-based minerals, in which ferrous ions enter octahedral sites of different symmetry and distortion (olivine, cordierite, ortho- and clinopyroxene, amphibole), eightfold sites in garnet (almandine) and clinopyroxene (M2), and tetrahedral sites in spinel, were studied at temperatures from 300 to ca. 600 K. In the minerals studied, the spin-allowed bands of Fe²⁺ display rather variable temperature behaviour. In most cases, due to the thermal expansion of the Fe²⁺-bearing polyhedra, bands shift to lower energies upon increasing temperature, though there are some exceptions to this rule: in cases of other than sixfold octahedral or close to octahedral coordination, in almandine and spinel the bands shift to higher energies, which can be explained by an increase in distortions of the Fe²⁺-bearing polyhedra. Splitting of the excited ⁵ E _g-level of Fe²⁺ ions usually, but not always, increases with temperature, reflecting thermally induced increase in distortion of the Fe²⁺-bearing sites in the minerals studied. Integral intensities of the bands in question do not always obey the general rule, according to which intensity should increase with temperature, when the 3d ^N-centred site is centrosymmetric, or should remain unchanged when the 3d ^N site lacks an inversion centre. The experimental results show that the response of the characteristics of absorption bands such as width, intensity and energy caused by dd transitions of Fe²⁺ in oxygen-based minerals to increasing temperature is not always uniform and is at variance with expectation. This temperature dependence cannot be used directly to solve band assignment problems, as earlier proposed in the literature. Received: 22 December 1999 / Accepted: 30 October 2000