南方大到暴雪的一种预报方法

对构成南方大到暴雪的两个特征量：降水量和积雪深度用多种预报方法从晴雨、降水性质、降水量级、冰冻及积雪厚度等不同角度分别进行预报，然后通过推理组合，最终建立暴雪预报方法。该方法除了可以得出有无大到暴雪的预报结果外，还可以得到多种中间预报结果，从而适应预报服务的多种需要。在近３年的实际使用中获得了很好的效果。     

吉林省太古宙TTG岩类固结的温度压力条件

吉林省太古宙ＴＴＧ岩类型成于变质上壳岩系麻粒岩相变质作用晚期阶段。详细的岩相学研究表明，ＴＴＧ岩类中存在岩浆结晶的绿帘石，角闪石和黑云母等。绿帘石的出现标志了一定的压条件。     

Cloud tracking using satellite data for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events in the Mediterranean area

The use of cloud tracking techniques and storm identification procedures is proposed in this paper with the aim of predicting the evolution of cloud entities associated with the highest rainfall probability within a given meteorological scenario. Suitable algorithms for this kind of analysis are based on the processing of digital images in the thermal infrared (IR) band from geostationary satellites: a selection of such algorithms is described in some detail together with a few real case applications. Three heavy rainfall events have been selected for this purpose with reference to the extreme meteorological situation observed during Fall 1992 and 1993 over the Mediterranean area. A window from 30 to 60 °N and from 20 °W to 30 °E has been identified for the analysis of data from the radiometer on board the ESA Meteosat platform. In conclusion, the suitability of cloud tracking techniques for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events is discussed provided that the former are associated with proper modeling of small scale rainfall distribution.     

Rainfall-runoff forecasting methods,old and new

Here we review the main thrusts of rainfall-runoff modelling with an eye toward the advantageous use of the massive date sets being accumulated and the modern computers capable of dealing effectively with such sets.More than a tutorial, this study is aimed at providing a unifying structure for analyzing available techniques. The closing section draws attention to the existence of an alternative methodology.     

Forecasting extreme events in the tropical Indian Ocean sector climate

Prospects for forecasting climate variability over the tropical Indian Ocean sector, specifically extreme positive events of the Indian Dipole Mode (IDM), with lead times of a season or more are investigated using the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled-model system. The coupled system presents biases in its climatology over the Indian Ocean sector, which include (i) warmest sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) occurring in the central equatorial basin rather than on the eastside with the eastern (western) tropical SSTs up to 1 °C too cool (warm), (ii) a too northwest lying InterTropical Convergence Zonal over the ocean in boreal fall, (iii) a thermocline shallower (deeper) than observed west of Sumatra-Java (north of Madagascar), (iv) a delay of about a month in the onset (cessation) of the southwest (southeast) monsoon in the west (east) in boreal spring (fall). These biases affect the effectiveness of the SST-clouds-shortwave radiation negative feedback, the sensitivity of SST to wind-stress perturbations, and the character of equatorial coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. Despite these biases, ensemble hindcasts of the SST anomalies averaged over the eastern and western poles of the IDM for the decade 1993–2002, which included extreme positive events in 1994 and 1997/1998, are encouragingly good at 3-months lead. The onset of the 1997/1998-event is delayed by about a month, though the peak and decay are correctly timed. At 6-months lead-time, the forecast at the eastern pole deteriorates with either positive or negative false alarms generated each boreal fall. The forecast at the western pole remains good.     

Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

Crustacean zooplankton distribution patterns and their biomass as related to trophic indicators of 29 shallow subtropical lakes

A comparative limnological study was carried out to present a snapshot of crustacean zooplankton communities and their relations to environmental factors to test whether there is a consistent relationship between crustacean biomass and trophic indicators among lake groups with similar trophic conditions. The study lakes showed a wide range of trophic status, with total phosphorus (TP) ranging from 0.008 to 1.448 mg L⁻¹, and chlorophyll a from 0.7 to 146.1 μg L⁻¹, respectively. About 38 species of Crustacea were found, of which Cladocera were represented by 25 taxa (20 genera), and Copepoda by 13 taxa (11 genera). The most common and dominant species were Bosmina coregoni, Moina micrura, Diaphanosoma brachyurum, Cyclops vicinus, Thermocyclops taihokuensis, Mesocyclops notius and Sinocalanus dorrii. Daphnia was rare in abundance. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that except for four species (D. hyalina, S. dorrii, C. vicinus and M. micrura), almost all the dominant species had the same preference for environmental factors. Temperature, predatory cyclopoids and planktivorous fishes seem to be the key factors determining species distribution. TP was a relatively better trophic indicator than chlorophyll a to predict crustacean biomass. Within the three groups of lakes, however, there was no consistent relationship between crustacean biomass and trophic indicators. The possible reason might be that top-down and bottom-up control on crustaceans vary with lake trophic state. The lack of significant negative correlation between crustacean biomass and chlorophyll a suggests that there was little control of phytoplankton biomass by macrozooplankton in these shallow subtropical lakes.     

Stratospheric warming effects on the tropical mesospheric temperature field

Temperature observations at 20–90 km height and 5–15°N during the winter of 1992–1993, 1993–1994 and 2003–2004, from the Wind Imaging Interferometer (WINDII) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) satellite and the Sounding the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) experiment on the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite are analyzed together with MF radar winds and UK Meteorological Office (UKMO) assimilated fields. Mesospheric cooling is observed at the time of stratospheric warming at the tropics correlative with stratospheric warming events at middle and high latitudes. Planetary waves m=1 with periods of 4–5, 6–8, 10 and 12–18 days are found to dominate the period. Westward 7- and 16-day waves at the tropics appear enhanced by stationary planetary waves during sudden stratospheric warming events.     

Thermal surface characteristics of coal fires 1 results of in-situ measurements

Natural underground coal fires are fires in coal seams occurring subsurface. The fires are ignited through a process named spontaneous combustion, which occurs based on a natural reaction but is usually triggered through human interaction. Coal mining activities expose coal to the air. This leads to the exothermal oxidation of the carbon in the coal with the air's oxygen to CO₂ and – under certain circumstances – to spontaneous combustion. Coal fires occur in many countries world wide – however, currently the Chinese coal mining industry faces the biggest problems with coal fires. Coal fires destroy the valuable resource coal and furthermore lead to many environmental degradation phenomena such as the deterioration of surrounding vegetation, land subsidence and the emission of toxic gasses (CO, N₂O). They additionally contribute to the emission of green house relevant gasses such as CO₂ and CH₄ to the atmosphere.In this paper we present thermal characteristics of coal fires as measured in-situ during a field campaign to the Wuda coal fire area in south-central Inner Mongolia, China. Thermal characteristics include temperature anomaly measurements at the surface, spatial surface temperature profiles of fire areas and unaffected background areas, diurnal temperature profiles, and temperature measurements inside of coal fire induced cracks in the overlying bedrock. For all the measurements the effects of uneven solar heating through influences of slope and aspect are considered.Our findings show that coal fires result in strong or subtle thermal surface anomalies. Especially the latter can easily be influenced by heating of the surrounding background material through solar influences. Temperature variation of background rocks with different albedo, slope, aspect or vegetation cover can substantially influence the detectability of thermal anomalies. In the worst case coal fire related thermal anomalies can be completely masked by solar patterns during the daytime. Thus, night-time analysis is the most suitable for thermal anomaly mapping of underground coal fires, although this is not always feasible. The heat of underground coal fires only progresses very slowly through conduction in the rock material. Anomalies of coal fires completely covered by solid unfractured bedrock are very weak and were only measured during the night. The thermal pattern of underground coal fires manifested on the surface during the daytime is thus the pattern of cracks and vents, which occur due to the volume loss underground and which support radiation and convective energy transport of hot gasses. Inside coal fire temperatures can hardly be measured and can only be recorded if the glowing coal is exposed through a wider crack in the overlaying bedrock. Direct coal fire temperatures measured ranged between 233 °C and 854 °C. The results presented can substantially support the planning of thermal mapping campaigns, analyses of coal fire thermal anomalies in remotely sensed data, and can provide initial and boundary conditions for coal fire related numerical modeling.In a second paper named “Thermal Characteristics of Coal Fires 2: results of measurements on simulated coal fires” [Zhang J., Kuenzer C., Tetzlaff A., Oettl D., Zhukov B., Wagner W., 2007. Thermal Characteristics of Coal Fires 2: Result of measurements on simulated coal fires. Accepted for publication at Journal of Applied Geophysics. doi:10.1016/j.jappgeo.2007.08.003] we report about thermal characteristics of simulated coal fires simulated under simplified conditions. The simulated set up allowed us to measure even more parameters under undisturbed conditions — especially inside fire temperatures. Furthermore we could demonstrate the differences between open surface coal fires and covered underground coal fires. Thermal signals of coal fires in near range thermal remotely sensed imagery from an observing tower and from an airplane are presented and discussed.     

Application of wavelet transformation to determine wavelengths and phase velocities of gravity waves observed by lidar measurements

During the last two decades, important advances have been made in the investigation of gravity waves. However, more efforts are needed to study certain aspects of gravity waves. In the real atmosphere, gravity waves occur with different properties at different altitudes and, most often, simultaneously. In this case, when there is more than one dominant wave, the determination of gravity wave characteristics, such as the vertical wavelength and the phase velocity, is difficult. The interpretation of temperature perturbation plots versus the altitude and time as well as the application of the Fourier spectral analysis can produce errors.Exact knowledge of the wave characteristics is important both for determination of other characteristics, for example, the horizontal wave components, and for study of wave climatology. The wavelet analysis of vertical temperature profiles allows one to examine the wave's location in space. Up to now, gravity waves have been studied mainly by continuous wavelet transformation to determine dominant waves. We apply wavelet analysis to a time series of temperature profiles, observed by the ALOMAR ozone lidar at Andoya, Norway, and by the U. Bonn lidar system at ESRANGE, Sweden, both for determination of the dominant waves and for specifying the vertical wavelengths and the vertical component of the phase velocities. For this purpose, the wavelet amplitude spectra and the wavelet phase spectra are filtered and Hovmöller diagrams for dominant wavelengths are constructed. The advantage of this type of diagrams is that they give clear evidence for the localization of the dominant waves in space and time and for the development of their phase fronts.