分形分析方法在海冰趋势预测中的应用

根据渤海北部1966——2001海冰冰级年际变化的实际资料，利用R／S分析的原理和方法计算了H指数，建立了R(i)/S(i)与i的关系式，对渤海北部海冰趋势进行了预测分析。结果表明，利用分形分析方法进行海冰趋势预测不仅方法简便，而且结论具有客观性，可以将其作为海冰趋势预测中较为有效的一种方法。     

隶属函数的方法进行等级预报及隶属函数的构造

模糊数学在气象、水文预报领域中已经得到广泛的应用。其中，用隶属函数的方法作预报对象的多等级长期预报，能取得较好的效果。本文简要介绍用隶属函数的方法进行长期多等级预报的基本思路和步骤，重点介绍在作上述预报过程中，构造隶属函数的一种方法。     

ANN在海洋预报中的应用

人工神经网络通过神经元之间的相互作用来完成整个网络的信息处理,具有自学习和自适应等一系列优点,因而用它来进行海洋预报是可行的。针对海洋预报问题,初步建立了基于神经网络的预报分析系统,给出了应用实例。     

邓阜仙钨矿成矿构造特征及深部成矿预测

邓阜仙钨矿位于湘赣地洼系衡山地穹内地洼型花岗岩中。矿床构造为典型的脉状构造。单脉,脉列,脉群在空间上严格按一定的几何关系分布。矿脉雁列脉,侧羽脉的三维形态特征,反映它们剪切形成的机制。经我们对该区航片、卫片分析,发现NNW向构造带与环形影像带,由此而确立了NNW向矿带的新认识。结合矿化与蚀变强度的空间分布,以及发现客观存在的构造等距性、对称性、梯级面,预测出新矿床(体)的空间位置,并得到物探与工程的验证。     

温度突变对大海马(Hippocampus kuda)幼体生长、组分及酶活力的影响

以大海马幼体为实验材料,通过设置不同的温度突变组(温度从23℃突变至15℃、28℃和33℃)的方法,对其生长、生化组分以及酶活力的影响进行了研究。结果表明,实验结束后,28℃温度组的大海马幼体生长指标、蛋白含量、能值显著高于23℃对照组(P<0.05),而15℃、33℃温度组的各项指标则显著低于对照组(P<0.05);此外,温度突变组的大海马幼体的酶活力均有先升后降的趋势,在1d后出现峰值,4—6d各个温度组趋于稳定,到实验第15天时,28℃温度组的SOD、ACP活力和MDA的含量已处于23℃对照组水平(P>0.05),CAT、AKP活力显著高于23℃对照组(P<0.05)。而15℃、33℃温度组的SOD、CAT活力降至低于23℃对照组水平(P<0.05),15℃温度组的ACP、AKP活力则低于23℃对照组水平(P<0.05),MDA的含量在15℃、33℃温度组随时间延长而增加。     

华南沿海地区全新世海平面变化特征

１海平面变化特征１．１全新世中期海侵根据地层中所含硅藻属种雷州半岛海康南田乡一１５ｍ钻孔岩芯，含有丰富的硅藻，主要属种是①：具槽直链藻（Ｍｅｌｏｓｉｒａ　ｓｕｌｃａｔａ（Ｅｈｒ）Ｋｕｔｚ）、范氏回箱藻（Ｐｙｘｉｃｌｉｃｕｌａ　ｗｅｙｐｒｅｃｈｔｉｉＧｒｕｎ）、条纹小环藻（Ｃｙｃｌｏｔｅｌｌａｓｔｒｉａｔａ（Ｋｕｔｚ）Ｇｒｕｎ）、流水双菱藻（ＳｕｒｉｒｅｌｌａｆｌｕｍｉｎｅｎｓｉｓＧｒｕｎ）。上述硅藻主要是海相生活属种，今日南田乡已距离海岸线５ｋｍ。徐闻海安西侧一１８．５ｍ钻孔岩芯中的硅藻除上述属…     

广西沿海热带气旋大风数值预报探讨

本文采用旋衡风方程,推导热带气旋区域内风场和气压场的分布状况,把计算值与实测值进行回归统计,建立广西沿海热带气旋大风数值预报模式,效果较好,可供热带气旋预报中参考。     

南海温度锋的分布特征及季节变化

利用50a(1950—2007年)的SODA(Simple Ocean Data Assimilation)数据分析了南海上层温度锋分布特征以及季节变化规律。结果表明:受季风、太阳辐照以及诸多因素影响,温度锋季节变化明显,锋面结构复杂。冬季,温度锋基本沿陆架分布,存在于南海北部海区,从台湾海峡一直延伸到北部湾,发育比较显著;春季,主要出现在南海北部海区、北部湾、越南东部海岸,分布比较广泛;夏季温度锋出现概率增加,出现区域扩大,越南东部出现大面积温度锋;秋季南海中西部海域存在大面积的温度锋。     

A dipole mode at thermocline layer in the tropical Indian Ocean

Temperature data at different layers of the past 45 years were studied and we found adiploe mode in the thermocline layer (DMT): anomalously cold sea temperature off the coast of Sumatra and warm sea temperature in the western Indian Ocean. First, we analyzed the temperature and the temperature anomaly (TA) along the equatorial Indian Ocean in different layers. This shows that stronger cold and warm TA signals appeared at subsurface than at the surface in the tropical Indian O-cean. This result shows that there may be a strong dipole mode pattern in the subsurface tropical Indian Ocean. Secondly we used Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to analyze the TA at thermocline layer. The first EOF pattern was a dipole mode pattern. Finally we analyzed the correlations between DMT and surface tropical dipole mode (SDM), DMT and Nino 3 SSTA, etc. and these correlations are strong.     

Transfer-function modelling between environmental variation and mesozooplankton in the Baltic Sea

Time series of freshwater runoff, seawater salinity, temperature and oxygen were used in transfer functions (TF) to model changes of mesozooplankton taxa in the Baltic Sea from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The models were then compared with long term zooplankton monitoring data from the same period. The TF models for all taxa over the whole Baltic proper and at different depth layers showed statistically significant estimates in t-tests. TF models were further compared using parsimony as a criterion. We present models showing 1) r² > 0.4, 2) the smallest residual standard error with the combination of exploratory variables, 3) the lowest number of parameters and 4) the highest proportional decrease in error term when the TF model residual standard error was compared with those of the univariate ARIMA model of the same response variable. Most often (7 taxa out of a total of 8), zooplankton taxa were dependent on freshwater runoff and/or seawater salinity. Cladocerans and estuarine copepods were more conveniently modelled through the inclusion of seawater temperature and oxygen data as independent variables. Our modelling, however, explains neither the overall increase in zooplankton abundance nor a simultaneous decrease found in the neritic copepod, Temora longicornis. Therefore, biotic controlling agents (e.g. nutrients, primary production and planktivore diets) are suggested as independent variables for further TF modelling. TF modelling enabled us to put the controlling factors in a time frame. It was then possible, despite the inherent multiple correlation among parameters studied to deduce a chain-of-events from the environmental controls and biotic feedback mechanisms to changes in zooplankton species. We suggest that the documented long-term changes in zooplankton could have been driven by climatic regulation only. The control by climate could be mediated to zooplankton through marine chemical and physical factors, as well as biotic factors if all of these were responding to the same external control, such as changes in the freshwater runoff. Increased runoff would explain both the increasing eutrophication, causing the overall increase of zooplankton, and the changes in selective predation, contributing to decline of Temora.