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161.
分位数映射法在RegCM4中国气温模拟订正中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
将一种分位数映射法RQUANT,应用到一个区域气候模式(RegCM4)所模拟中国气温的误差订正中。从气候平均态、年际变率、极端气候及农业气候等多方面,评估了该方法对日平均气温、日最高气温和日最低气温模拟的订正效果。结果表明,该订正方法对模式模拟的日平均、日最高和最低气温气候平均态的订正效果都非常明显,中国大部分地区的订正结果与观测的偏差在±0.5℃之间。在降低极端气温指数和农业气候相关指数的模拟误差方面也有显著的效果,但对气温年际变率的订正效果有限。结合以往对降水订正的评估分析,该方法对模式模拟结果有较好的订正效果,可以应用于区域气候模式的气候变化模拟预估中,为气候变化及相关影响评估研究提供更适用和可靠的数据。 相似文献
162.
Analyzing snowfall variability over two locations in Kashmir,India in the context of warming climate
Present study focuses on examination snowfall variability over Gulmarg and Pahalgam of Kashmir Valley in India during past 31 years (1980–2010). Trends in temperature over the study area is also explored. Minimum and maximum temperature shows increasing trends which is consistent with increase in black carbon column mass density. Increase in black carbon mass density is attributed to urbanization over study area. Trends of minimum temperature is statistically significant. It is reported that snowfall over the Pahalgam shows decreasing trend except for the month of February and January. Pahalgam shows a significant decreasing trend in snowfall of about 48 mm per decade during March. Pahalgam and Gulmarg show seasonal decreasing trends of snowfall of about 15 mm and 1.8 mm per decade, respectively. These decreasing trends in snowfall are consistent with decadal increasing trends of about 1.2 °C and 0.8 °C in minimum temperature over Pahalgam and Gulmarg, respectively. Seasonal snowfall over both the regions shows decreasing trend (insignificant). Results reported in this study show a decrease of about 24.16% ± 9.86% per degree increase in minimum temperature over Pahalgam. Changing characteristics of snowfall in the context of anthropogenic warming present major challenges to the tourism and socioeconomic aspects over the Valley. 相似文献
163.
Land use and land cover (LULC) change in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta (GBD) poses significant challenges towards future environmental sustainability of the region and requires regional scale monitoring of key bio-physical variables and changes in their inter-relationship over space and time. Focusing on the southern part of the lower GBD region along the international border of India and Bangladesh, this study examined the spatio-temporal variability of LULC change and its relationship with Land Surface Temperature (LST). Furthermore, LULC-LST relationships were compared between Indian and Bangladesh part and its trend in and around big cities (with more than 1 million population) and towns (with more than 100,000 population) was investigated. Results showed that LST changes were predominantly driven by LULC changes on both sides of the border. Urban growth is the dominant form of LULC change, and the rate of land change was faster in 2005–2010 time period than 1989–2005. Over the period of 21 years, mean January LST decreased by approximately 1.83 °C in Indian part and 1.85 °C in the Bangladesh part. Areas that changed from to rural from agricultural experienced decrease in mean LST, whereas those areas that changed to urban from either agriculture or rural, experienced increase in mean LST. The relationship between LULC and LST are same on both sides of the Indo-Bangladesh border. In bigger cities like Kolkata (in India) and Khulna (in Bangladesh), there is a high spatial variability in relationship between LULC and LST compared to large towns. The LULC-LST relationship in large towns in India was influenced by proximity to Kolkata and coastal areas, whereas in Bangladesh no such influence was evident. The results and the data produced in this study are crucial for monitoring LULC changes, for developing spatial decision support system, and thus will be helpful to address the current challenges of land management in the GBD region. Changes in the LULC and LST are important indicators of GBD's environmental health and access its vulnerability and thus the present findings serve as baseline information for future studies seeking to examine the impact of differential policies on the LULC change in the region. 相似文献
164.
斜压海洋动力学的一种三维数值模式──Ⅱ.温度、盐度和垂直涡动粘性系数的计算 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
根据海水温度和盐度平流扩散方程给出一种数值计算方案并采用混合长度理论给出垂直涡动粘性系数的计算方法。对于温度和盐度方程,其平流过程采用了Lax-Wendroff格式,水平扩散采用显格式,垂直扩散采用隐格式。时间步长主要受平流过程的Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy条件限制。垂直涡动粘性系数计算依据Prandtl混合长度理论,并考虑了海水层化的抑制作用,因而其数值与流场及密度场结构有关。温度、盐度及垂直涡动粘性系数的计算与动力方程中内模态的计算同步进行。应用本模式模拟渤、黄、东海由潮流、密度流和风海流迭加而成的综合海流,得出了良好的结果。 相似文献
165.
环境因子对三种常见微藻细胞中二甲基硫丙酸含量影响的初步研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
以3种常见的海洋浮游藻类──扁藻、杜氏藻和牟氏角刺藻作为实验材料,采用正交方法设计实验条件,研究盐度、温度和光强的变化对藻类细胞内二甲基硫丙酸(DMSP)含量的影响。结果表明,3种藻类细胞DMP含量相差很大。扁藻DMSP含量最高,其次为杜氏藻,牟氏角刺藻含量最低。种间差别的影响明显高于环境条件的变化对藻细胞DMSP含量的影响。3种环境因子对藻细胞DMSP含量的影响效果不同,盐度变化引起藻细胞DMP含量的变化最为显著,其次为温度和光强。随着盐度的增加,扁藻、杜氏藻和牟氏角刺藻细胞内DMSP含量均呈上升趋势。 相似文献
166.
167.
168.
本世纪全球增暖的显著性分析 总被引:23,自引:3,他引:20
用Jones、Walace等人全球年平均气温距平和全球陆地和海洋月平均气温距平格点资料,通过相关和趋势分析及Mann-Kendal趋势检验(以下简称MKT检验)发现:本世纪全球绝大部分地区增暖是显著的,而热带、副热带海洋,尤其是印度洋近百年来增暖最稳定.北大西洋近几十年来的显著降温导致了西半球30°N以北大部分地区增暖趋势明显下降.与之相反,东半球欧亚大陆近几十年来冬季的强烈增温使地球增暖趋势大大增高,以致形成了东亚大陆和北大西洋-北美大陆东部地区在近50年来变温反相的不均衡格局 相似文献
169.
170.
广州气温与厄尔尼诺的多尺度相互联系 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
通过对广州气温距平和Nino 3、Nino 1+2区SSTA序列做小波变换,研究了广州气温变化与ENSO振荡过程之间的多尺度联系,发现它们都存在着强的十年际振荡。年际尺度的振荡为正相关,十年际风度为负相关。由于SSTA的十年际变率是由强厄尔尼诺事件的韵律产生的,因此;广州气温对强烈厄尔尼诺的响应性质上不同于对普通厄尔尼诺的响应. 相似文献