SIMULATION AND ANALYSIS ON OBSERVATIONAL ERRORS OF CLOUD INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE WITH TRMM PR AND GROUND-BASED RADAR*

In order to explain theoretically the observational biases of reflectivity and structure of precipitation systems by TRMM Precipitation Radar (TRMM PR) and ground-based radar,the effects of wavelengths,incident direction of radar waves and radar beam width on the reflectivity observation are simulated.The results show that the error due to the different wavelength and incident direction of radar wave is within 2.0 dB,TRMM PR can observe a larger reflectivity than ground-based radar in echo center.TRMM PR smoothes the cloud structure,overestimates and underestimates reflectivity by 3-5 dB in strong and week echo areas,respectively.Beam width and long distance from TRMM PR to target cause it to overestimate the large echo area and area integrated rainfall amount,and to underestimate the averaged refleetivity.The theoretical results above can only explain part of observational facts,meaning that the comparison of observation results between TRMM PR and ground-based radar is complicated,the attenuation of radar wave within precipitation area is the main factor to affect the observed result.     

TRMM降水数据在气象干旱监测中的应用研究

针对热带降雨计划卫星(TRMM)的降水数据在气象干旱监测中还未有应用的现状,论文利用TRMM 3843降水数据产品,以2008年10月～2009年2月间我国北方冬麦区气象干旱为监测实例,采用降水距平百分率指数对干旱的空间演变过程进行了监测.监测结果显示:(1)累积降水距平百分率,由于充分考虑了前期降水的累积效应,其气象干旱监测结果与实际情况极为吻合.(2)在2008年10月～2009年2月期间,我国北方冬麦区气象干旱先后经历了一个不断加重到逐渐缓解的过程.其中,2009年1月份的干旱程度最高,干旱核心区主要分布在北京南部,天津、河北中南部,山西大部,陕西北部,山东西部,河南中北部,湖北北部以及安徽北部等广大区域;至2009年2月底,受多次有效降水过程的影响,我国北方冬麦区的抗旱压力则得到极大缓解.(3)TRMM降水数据较地面气象站点观测,具有较好的时空连续性,在全国性及区域性宏观气象干旱监测中具有较好的应用前景.     

TRMM卫星的闪电观测资料在中尺度数值模式中的Nudging同化应用研究

在以往研究的基础上,本文提出一种利用TRMM卫星闪电观测资料改善中尺度数值模式水物质初始场的Nudging同化技术,这是把物理初始化方法与Nudging同化方法相结合的一种技术.根据TRMM卫星闪电观测水平分布,对水汽和云凝结物进行Nudging同化,对积云对流参数化方案进行调整,改变模式初始水汽和云凝结物场的含量,以...     

TRMM 3B42降水产品在秦巴山区的适用性研究

利用1999～2016年秦巴山区范围内的81个气象站实测逐日降水资料,对TRMM 3B42卫星降水数据在秦巴山区的适用性进行了评估。结果表明:TRMM 3B42数据在月、季、年尺度上具有较高的精度,3～11月精度较高,1月略低,四季中冬季精度较低。TRMM所反映的降水变化过程与实测降水过程基本一致,但在降水量上存在一定差异,TRMM有略微高估降水的特征。按不同雨量等级对比,发现卫星资料对中雨及以上级别的降水具有较高的精度,无雨及小雨精度略低,原因是TRMM对0.1～0.9mm微量降水的探测能力较弱。无雨、小雨、暴雨日TRMM估计与站点实测具有相反的年际变化趋势,中雨、大雨日具有相同的年际变化趋势。研究结果对秦巴山区资料缺乏地区的气象过程研究具有重要的应用价值。     

四川盆地及周边地区TRMM 3B42数据精度检验

多源信息融合的流域水文模拟及预报技术,是目前水文预报发展的一个重要方向。以易发生长江流域特大洪水的四川盆地及周边地区为研究区域,从单个站点及子流域降水量相关性、降雨空间分布和相对误差等方面对TRMM卫星3B42产品探测精度进行了检验分析。结果表明:研究区TRMM 3B42数据与地面观测数据在日、月尺度上具有较高的相关性(R >0.5),3 h尺度相关性较差(R<0.5),且3 h和日尺度在降水量峰值拟合上存在较为明显的数值偏差和时间上的提前或延迟;不同时间尺度下两组数据的空间分布特征总体具有较好的一致性;两组数据2008—2010年降水量序列均值相对偏差在±10%的概率密度百分数为32.26%。总体上研究区TRMM 3B42数据呈现高估(四川盆地大部分区域),局部出现低估(四川盆东南及地周边地区);研究区3 h尺度TRMM 3B42数据探测精度明显低于日尺度,高程变化对TRMM 3B42数据的探测精度具有一定影响。因此,针对该区域TRMM 3B42数据3 h和日尺度数据序列精度相对较差的问题,应用该卫星数据进行3 h尺度流域水文模拟及预报研究时,就需要对该区域卫星数据和地面观测数据进行融合,充分发挥两种数据的优势。     

TRMM/TMI资料在热带气旋强度估计中的应用研究

利用2007—2009年热带降雨测量卫星（TRMM）的微波成像仪（TMI）观测到的亮温资料,计算9个通道（10、19、37、85 GHz的水平和垂直极化通道及21 GHz的垂直极化通道）的亮温和极化修正温度（PCT）在不同范围内的最大值、最小值、平均值和区域阈值与热带气旋强度之间的关系。结果表明：亮温信息可较好地反映热带气旋的强度,单个参数与热带气旋最大风速的相关性最好可达到0.83,线性拟合的均方根误差接近业务误差;低频通道的亮温相对于高频通道可更好地估计海上热带气旋强度;位于台风中心0.5°～1.5°度范围之间的亮温与气旋强度的相关性较好,圆形区域的相关性好于圆环区域;对于位于海上的热带气旋,区域亮温的最小值与热带气旋强度的关系最好;低频通道（除10 GHz外）,阈值位于260～280 K区间的亮温与热带气旋强度的相关性较好。     

中国大陆TMPA降水产品气候态的评估

利用逐日全国降水分析产品,对2012年12月下旬发布的最新版本的TRMM等多源卫星降水估算产品（TMPA）进行评估, 评估时间从2008年9月到2012年8月。从评估结果来看,研究产品3B42V7产品与CPAP产品具有高的相关性,两者的相关系数达到了0.94,相对误差在-0.11％左右,标准偏差约为0.53 mm·d-1。实时产品3B42RT产品与CPAP产品的相关性相对较差,相关系数为0.75,相对误差也上升到了39.3％,标准偏差为1.25 mm·d-1。3B42RT产品在我国西部高估了降水,全年的相对误差为116.60％（春夏秋冬四季分别为104.52%、 105.73%、117.64%和326.60%）;3B42V7产品的相对误差仅为0.82 %（春夏秋冬四季分别为2.25%、1.24%、-5.27%和-24.64%）。     

基于微波成像仪资料反演陆面降水

为了探讨微波亮温与降水的关系,结合时空匹配较好的TRMM卫星测雨雷达(PR)、微波成像仪(TMI)资料,用逐步回归方法,建立统计反演降水的新算式,并对新算式反演结果进行验证.结果表明:对0.1～3 mm/h和3～6 mm/h的降水来说.新算式反演结果与PR雷达反演降水相关较好;对6～10 mm/h的降水来说,新算式反演结果与PR雷达反演降水相关较差;对于大于10 mm/h的降水,新算式反演结果与PR雷达反演降水有较好的相关性,但均方根误差比较大,说明用这种方法反演降水,对于强降水中心的确定有很好的参考价值,但反演结果较实际偏小.通过对2004年7月18日发生的一次特大降水反演结果表明,卫星反演雨带的空间分布、强降水中心位置与PR雷达反演降水以及地基雷达反演降水基本一致.     

Uncertainty Reduction of Estimated Geostrophic Volume Transports with Altimeter Observations East of Taiwan

The common geostrophic estimation of ocean current velocity uses only water temperature and conductivity profiles. The geostrophic volume transport of a western boundary current, like the Taiwan Current (Kuroshio east of Taiwan), between the coast and its eastern boundary can be easily estimated based on hydrographic survey data. But the eastern boundary of the Taiwan Current is very uncertain due to extremely variable hydrographic conditions. This uncertainty is strongly correlated with the propagating mesoscale eddies originating from the interior of the western North Pacific Ocean. The uncertainty of estimated transport can be greatly reduced if eddy distribution is considered when determining the integration boundaries with the assistance of satellite altimeter measurements. Eight hydrographic surveys east of Taiwan between November 1992 and June 1996 are demonstrated in this study. The average geostrophic transport of the Taiwan Current with a reference set to 1000 dbar at 22°N between the east coast of Taiwan and 124°E is 22.9 ±14.2 Sv and changes to 22.1 ± 8.3 Sv, the uncertainty of which is nearly halved after taking account of the eddy distribution. The estimation uncertainty is insensitive to vertical displacements of the reference level within the depth range between 800 and 2000 dbar. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Seasonal patterns of rainfall and river isotopic chemistry in northern Amazonia (Guyana): From the headwater to the regional scale

We use first field-based observations of precipitation and river isotopic chemistry from a three-year study (2009–2011) in rainforest and nearby savannah in central Guyana at the northern rim of the Amazon rainforest to establish the quality of modelled or remotely-sensed datasets. Our 3 years of data capture a reduced rainfall regime in 2009 and an extended wet season in 2010, in contrast to the widely documented Amazonian floods in 2009 and droughts in 2010. Comparisons of observed precipitation with satellite derived TRMM and ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis precipitation show that both of these data sets capture the general pattern of seasonality, but substantially underestimate rainfall amounts in the primary wet season (by up to 50% and 72% respectively). The TRMM dataset is generally better at characterising the main dry season from September to December but the ERA-Interim model can overestimate precipitation in the dry season by up to 175%. Our new data on isotopic chemistry of river waters show that δ²H/δ¹⁸O values in this region are broadly consistent with interpolated global datasets of modelled precipitation isotopic signatures. The dominance of isotopically lighter water derived from the rains of the ITCZ during the wet season provides evidence of the close coupling of water chemistry of headwater rivers on the northern rim of Amazonia to the positioning of the ITCZ over the region. Our results highlight the challenge in understanding and representing local scale hydrological and biogeochemical characteristics using regional scale model data. We argue that combining point and local scale field data with larger scale model data is necessary to progress towards a comprehensive understanding of climate–hydrology interactions in Amazonia.