Methodology for construction, calibration and validation of a national hydrological model for Denmark

An integrated groundwater/surface water hydrological model with a 1 km² grid has been constructed for Denmark covering 43,000 km². The model is composed of a relatively simple root zone component for estimating the net precipitation, a comprehensive three-dimensional groundwater component for estimating recharge to and hydraulic heads in different geological layers, and a river component for streamflow routing and calculating stream–aquifer interaction. The model was constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE code and by utilising comprehensive national databases on geology, soil, topography, river systems, climate and hydrology. The present paper describes the modelling process for the 7330 km² island of Sjælland with emphasis on the problems experienced in combining the classical paradigms of groundwater modelling, such as inverse modelling of steady-state conditions, and catchment modelling, focussing on dynamic conditions and discharge simulation. Three model versions with different assumptions on input data and parameter values were required until the performance of the final, according to pre-defined accuracy criteria, model was evaluated as being satisfactory. The paper highlights the methodological issues related to establishment of performance criteria, parameterisation and assessment of parameter values from field data, calibration and validation test schemes. Most of the parameter values were assessed directly from field data, while about 10 ‘free’ parameters were subject to calibration using a combination of inverse steady-state groundwater modelling and manual trial-and-error dynamic groundwater/surface water modelling. Emphasising the importance of tests against independent data, the validation schemes included combinations of split-sample tests (another period) and proxy-basin tests (another area).     

基于DEM的河流多尺度显示研究

进行了基于DEM的河流多尺度显示方法的研究和试验。采用斯特拉勒算法对河流线进行分级,通过DEM提取河流的高差、集水面积等属性信息,并以此为基础提出了对河流的主支流的自动判别的方法,最终以国家基础地理信息的全国1∶25万数据库为数据源实现了实验区域河流的多尺度显示。     

Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.     

平板载荷试验应思考的几个问题

提出了平板载荷试验中的几个问题:(1)复合地基平板载荷试验垫层的重要性;(2)复合地基平板载荷试验存在尺寸效应;(3)单墩或单桩平板载荷试验不完善。重点对目前广泛使用的复合地基荷载试验进行了讨论,以引起检测人员注意。     

Crossover from Nonlinearity Controlled to Heterogeneity Controlled Mixing in Two-Phase Porous Media Flows

We use high resolution Monte Carlo simulations to study the dispersive mixing in two-phase, immiscible, porous media flow that results from the interaction of the nonlinearities in the flow equations with geologic heterogeneity. Our numerical experiments show that distinct dispersive regimes occur depending on the relative strength of nonlinearity and heterogeneity. In particular, for a given degree of multiscale heterogeneity, controlled by the Hurst exponent which characterizes the underlying stochastic model for the heterogeneity, linear and nonlinear flows are essentially identical in their degree of dispersion, if the heterogeneity is strong enough. As the heterogeneity weakens, the dispersion rates cross over from those of linear heterogeneous flows to those typical of nonlinear homogeneous flows.     

冬季北极涛动和华北冬季气温变化关系研究

利用北极涛动指数（AOI）、NCEP／NCAR40a再分析资料中的海平面气压（SLP）、850、500、200hPa等压面高度场资料及中国160站月平均气温资料，运用小波分析，经验正交函数（EOF）分析等方法，分析了华北冬季气温和冬季北极涛动指数的变化特征及其关系。结果表明它们之间存在有着显著相关，特别是在年代际尺度上关系尤其密切。华北在20世纪70年代初以前为持续冷冬，80年代中期之后变为持续暖冬，其间相对正常，而冬季北极涛运指数亦存在类似的3个阶段，冬季北极涛动高（低）低数年，华北地区为暖（冷）冬年。其原因在于，北极涛动在于对流层低层和高层都可激发类似EU遥相关型的异常，通过影响西伯利亚高压和东亚大槽影响华北地区气温。强（弱）涛运年大气环流具有弱（强）东亚冬季风特征，西伯利亚高压减弱（增强），亚洲大陆地面东北风减弱（增强），高空东亚大槽减弱（增强）。     

山东省龙卷风发生的气候特征

根据藤田-皮尔森强度分类法对1950年～2000年山东省出现的351次龙卷风进行分类，其中F0级61次，F1级256次，F2级34次。山东半岛、鲁中、鲁南出现次数较多，鲁西北较少。1950～1972年发生次数明显高于1973～2000年。龙卷风发生存在明显的季节变化，夏季发生较多。龙卷风主要发生于午后至傍晚，多数龙卷风仅能维持几分到十几分钟。     

影响广西的孟湾风暴

统计分析了1973年以来影响广西的孟湾风暴天气气候情况及环流特征,总结出该类天气演变的一般规律及预报着眼点,为提高天气预报准确率提供有益参考。     

南昌市呼吸道和脑血管疾病与天气类型关系的初步分析

使用南昌市4家大医院(江西医学院第二附属医院、江西省肺科医院、南昌市第一医院、南昌市中西医结合医院)1999年呼吸道和脑血管两大类常见疾病的住院病例数,挑选出发病高峰期,对照相应日期的天气图进行分析,发现夏季的低气压和其它季节的冷空气是诱发或加重呼吸道和脑血管疾病的主要因素,气温或气压的变化对疾病的诱发或加重具有一定的滞后性。     

地震前兆观测仪器标定问题的探讨

标定工作，在地震前兆观测仪器的研究，使用及所得数据的处理中均已成为一个不可少的环节，但缺少有关标定问题的基石性研究和讨论。本文就标定的定义、种类、目的、要求、存在的问题等做一粗线的讨论，以期今后加强这一工作的深入研究。