一维扩散方程整体观测资料下的初值变分同化反演

本文考虑一维扩散方程的反问题,利用变分同化方法通过观测资料来确定方程中的未知初值,通过分析观测误差对于初值误差的影响,证明变分同化初值收敛于原问题的真实参数,并得到了参数的收敛精度。同时将得到的初值代入预报模式中,得到预报解,并分析了预报解的收敛性和预报误差。     

TOPEX Constrained Solution of Mean Sea Surface by Joint Processing of TOPEX,ERS-1 and GEOSAT Altimetric Measurements

We present an improved crossover adjustment procedure to determine mean sea surface height using TOPEX, 35-day repeat phase ERS-1, Geosat, and 168-day repeat phase ERS-1 satellite altimeter data. The mean sea surface frame defined by the TOPEX data is imposed as certain constraints in our crossover adjustment procedure rather than held fixed as in some other procedures. The new procedure is discussed in detail. Equations are developed to incorporate the a priori information of Topex data as well as other satellite altimeter data. The numerical computation result shows that the rms crossover discrepancies are reduced by an order of 1 cm when the Topex data is not fixed. Furthermore, the computed mean sea surface is less noisy and more realistic than that computed by the traditional procedure.     

On the Influence of Sea Surface Height Variability on Satellite Altimeter Derived Gravity

The effect of sea surface height (SSH) variability is one of the primary factors that limit the accuracy and resolution of altimeter-derived gravity values. We propose a method to estimate the influence of variation of the sea surface height on the accuracy of satellite-derived gravity by simulation technique, with a case study around Indonesian waters. Wederived an Indonesian marine gravity map using the Geosat-geodetic mission (GM). Since most of the area studied is located around coastal and shallow areas, the measurement of SSH of this area is less accurate. To obtain a distribution of SSH variability over the study area, Topex/Poseidon (T/P) data were first processed and assessed. Processing 52 cycles of the Topex/Poseidon data, the root mean square (RMS) of SSH variability for each cycle was found to vary from 1 to 179 cm. Further, for the purpose of estimating the accuracy of altimeter-derived gravity, we derived several levels of Gaussian noise, computed simulation data by adding the Gaussian noise to Geosat data, and determined simulated gravity maps. Based on the distribution of RMS values from T/P data and standard deviation (STD) differences between the simulated and the original gravity maps, we estimated the accuracy of the gravity map. Around Indonesian waters, the accuracy of the gravity map influenced by SSH variation was estimated to be within the range 0.8~93 mgal.     

Sea Level Variations and Geomorphological Changes in the Coastal Belt of Pakistan

The UNEP in its regional seas program in 1989 has included Pakistan in a group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising sea level. If the present trend of sea level rise (SLR) at Karachi continues, in the next 50 years the sea level rise along the Pakistan Coast will be 50 mm (5 cm). Since the rising rates of sea level at Karachi are within the global range of 1-2 mm/year, the trends may be treated as eustatic SLR. Historical air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) data of Karachi also show an increasing pattern and an increasing trend of about 0.67°C has been registered in the air temperature over the last 35 years, whereas the mean SST in the coastal waters of Karachi has also registered an increasing trend of about 0.3°C in a decade. Sindh coastal zone is more vulnerable to sea level rise than Baluchistan coast, as uplifting of the coast by about 1-2 mm/year due to subduction of Indian Ocean plate is a characteristic of Baluchistan coast. Within the Indus deltaic creek system, the area nearby Karachi is more vulnerable to coastal erosion and accretion than the other deltaic region, mainly due to human activities together with natural phenomena such as wave action, strong tidal currents, and rise in sea level. Therefore, The present article deals mainly with the study of dynamical processes such as erosion and accretion associated with sea level variations along the Karachi coast and surrounding Indus deltaic coastline. The probable beach erosion in a decade along the sandy beaches of Karachi has been estimated. The estimates show that 1.1 mm/year rise in sea level causes a horizontal beach loss of 110 mm per year. Therefore, coast eroded with rise in sea level at Karachi and surrounding sandy beaches would be 1.1 m during a period of next 10 years. The northwestern part of Indus delta, especially the Gizri and Phitti creeks and surrounding islands, are most unstable. Historical satellite images are used to analyze the complex pattern of sediment movements, the change in shape of coastline, and associated erosion and accretion patterns in Bundal and Buddo Islands. The significant changes in land erosion and accretion areas at Bundal and Buddo Islands are evident and appear prominently in the images. A very high rate of accretion of sediments in the northwestern part of Buddo Island has been noticed. In the southwest monsoon season the wave breaking direction in both these islands is such that the movement of littoral drift is towards west. Erosion is also taking place in the northeastern and southern part of Bundal Island. The erosion in the south is probably due to strong wave activities and in the northeast is due to strong tidal currents and seawater intrusion. Accretion takes place at the northwest and western parts of Bundal Island. By using the slope of Indus delta, sea encroachment and the land area inundation with rising sea level of 1 m and 2 m have also been estimated.     

Using Mean Sea Surface Topography for Determination of Height System Differences across the Baltic Sea

The mean sea surface topography in the Baltic Sea and adjacent waters is reliably known in the Nordic height system NH 60. Using this knowledge we estimate differences between NH 60, based on the Amsterdam zero point, and Russian, Polish, and German height systems along the southeastern coast of the Baltic Sea, based on the Kronstadt zero point. The differences agree within a few centimeters. We also make a simple study of the mean sea level difference between Kronstadt and Amsterdam (which is found to have been approximately 25 cm when sea level was still to be seen there).     

Organic matter in deepwater sediments of the Northern Gulf of Mexico and its relationship to the distribution of benthic organisms

Sediment samples were selected from 28 sites across the deep (212–3527 m) northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) as part of the Deep Gulf of Mexico Benthos (DGoMB) program, and analyzed for geochemical parameters related to organic carbon (OC) distribution and characteristics. The results of this study indicate that the OC content of sediments in the deep northern GOM is controlled by several factors; including water depth, overlying water productivity, sediment carbonate content, sediment oxygen exposure time, OC sources, and regional influences. The best correlation between sediment OC content, on a CaCO₃-free basis, and other parameters examined was an inverse correlation of OC with water depth. The OC/SA ratio had a wide range of values and, along with variable sources of sedimentary OC, indicated that the organism-available concentration of metabolizable organic matter may not be simply related to sedimentary OC content. This was perhaps reflected in the observation that benthic macrofaunal and meiofaunal biomass abundances were well correlated with sedimentary OC, but the abundance of bacteria in sediments was not.     

A global wave parameter database for geophysical applications. Part 1: Wave-current–turbulence interaction parameters for the open ocean based on traditional parameterizations

Ocean surface mixing and drift are influenced by the mixed layer depth, buoyancy fluxes and currents below the mixed layer. Drift and mixing are also functions of the surface Stokes drift U_ss, volume Stokes transport T_S, a wave breaking height scale H_swg, and the flux of energy from waves to ocean turbulence Φ_oc. Here we describe a global database of these parameters, estimated from a well-validated numerical wave model, that uses traditional forms of the wave generation and dissipation parameterizations, and covers the years 2003–2007. Compared to previous studies, the present work has the advantage of being consistent with the known physical processes that regulate the wave field and the air–sea fluxes, and also consistent with a very large number of in situ and satellite observations of wave parameters. Consequently, some of our estimates differ significantly from previous estimates. In particular, we find that the mean global integral of Φ_oc is 68 TW, and the yearly mean value of T_S is typically 10–30% of the Ekman transport, except in well-defined regions where it can reach 60%. We also have refined our previous estimates of U_ss by using a better treatment of the high frequency part of the wave spectrum. In the open ocean, U_ss  0.013U₁₀, where U₁₀ is the wind speed at 10 m height.     

A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina

A new real-time, event-triggered storm surge prediction system has been developed for the State of North Carolina to assist emergency managers, policy-makers and other government officials with evacuation planning, decision-making and resource deployment during tropical storm landfall and flood inundation events. The North Carolina Forecast System (NCFS) was designed and built to provide a rapid response assessment of hurricane threat, accomplished by driving a high-resolution, two-dimensional, depth-integrated version of the ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) coastal ocean model with winds from a synthetic asymmetric gradient wind vortex. These parametric winds, calculated at exact finite-element mesh node locations and directly coupled to the ocean model at every time step, are generated from National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast advisories the moment they are inserted into the real-time weather data stream, maximizing the number of hours of forecast utility. Tidal harmonic constituents are prescribed at the open water boundaries and applied as tidal potentials in the interior of the ocean model domain. A directional surface roughness parameterization that modulates the wind speed at a given location based on the types of land cover encountered upwind, a forest canopy sheltering effect, and a spatially varying distribution of Manning’s–n friction coefficient used for computing the bottom/channel bed friction are also included in the storm surge model. Comparisons of the simulated wind speeds and phases against their real meteorological counterparts, of model elevations against actual sea surface elevations measured by NOAA tide gauges along the NC coast, and of simulated depth-averaged current velocities against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data, indicate that this new system produces remarkably realistic predictions of winds and storm surge.     

东海陆架中北部沉积物粒度特征及其沉积环境

通过对东海陆架表层沉积物粒级组成、粒度参数、14C年龄和微体古生物组合的综合分析,绘制了东海陆架的沉积物类型分布图;运用Folk等(1970)沉积物分类方法将东海表层沉积物分成砂、粉砂、粉砂质砂、砂质粉砂、砂质泥5种类型,其中粉砂质砂分布最广,砂质泥分布最少;沉积物由陆向海粒度变粗,反映沉积过程中的物源和沉积动力控制作用。根据沉积环境及成因分析,可将东海陆架沉积分为3类:分别是长江口外席状砂沉积区、现代泥质沉积区和陆架中部砂质沉积区。长江口外砂质沉积是全新世冰消期晚期潮流作用及风暴潮流共同作用的产物,是高海平面以来太平洋潮波系统作用下的潮流沙沉积,沙波地貌仍在发生变化。现代泥质沉积区包括长江前三角洲沉积、浙闽沿岸流沉积和济州岛西南泥质沉积三个区域,不同沉积区的成因机制不同。陆架中部砂质沉积是末次冰盛期之后海侵作用下发育的砂质沉积物,在海侵的不同阶段中沉积物被冲刷改造,具有不等时性特征,沉积环境与现代陆架海洋环流的动力特征不一致,现代沉积作用较弱,仅接受悬浮体细粒沉积。     

有孔虫初房特征变化在珠江三角洲晚全新世东亚夏季风降雨研究中的应用

研究中国降雨格局变化对理解东亚夏季风演化意义重大。本文分析了珠江三角洲柱状样ZJK03-Z中浅水底栖有孔虫常见种Rotalidium annectens的平均初房大小、微球型/显球型比值和壳体δ18O值,以及底栖有孔虫组合中瓷质壳的百分含量,探讨它们对由夏季风降雨引起的河口水体盐度变化的响应,得到了珠江三角洲3114—1260a BP季风降雨的强度变化,识别出了这期间14次季风降雨减少的偏干期。与南美洲Cariaco海盆的钛含量记录对比,二者一致的结果表明,珠江三角洲晚全新世的东亚夏季风降雨与热带辐合带(ITCZ)的南北移动密切相关:夏季风降雨减少,对应于ITCZ纬度位置的南移。