Robust numerical solution of the reservoir routing equation

The robustness of numerical methods for the solution of the reservoir routing equation is evaluated. The methods considered in this study are: (1) the Laurenson–Pilgrim method, (2) the fourth-order Runge–Kutta method, and (3) the fixed order Cash–Karp method. Method (1) is unable to handle nonmonotonic outflow rating curves. Method (2) is found to fail under critical conditions occurring, especially at the end of inflow recession limbs, when large time steps (greater than 12 min in this application) are used. Method (3) is computationally intensive and it does not solve the limitations of method (2). The limitations of method (2) can be efficiently overcome by reducing the time step in the critical phases of the simulation so as to ensure that water level remains inside the domains of the storage function and the outflow rating curve. The incorporation of a simple backstepping procedure implementing this control into the method (2) yields a robust and accurate reservoir routing method that can be safely used in distributed time-continuous catchment models.     

天水地电阻率地表与井下多种观测方式的试验分析

2011年初天水地震台建成井下地电阻率观测专项项目,将地电水平观测推向了立体观测,其观测方式包括地表水平观测井下百米水平观测、地表与井下互换观测等.通过近两年的持续观测,地表A、B供电并下M、N观测以及并下水平观测两种方法获得的数据相对稳定、可靠;同时地表A、B供电井下M、N观测有助于数据变化的可靠性分析.在电磁环境较复杂的观测场地,地表A、B供电并下M、N观测和井下水平观测可能是地电阻率观测较为有效的两种方法.     

Retrieving lateral variations from surface wave dispersion curves‡

Surface wave analysis is usually applied as a 1D tool to estimate V_S profiles. Here we evaluate the potential of surface wave analysis for the case of lateral variations. Lateral variations can be characterized by exploiting the data redundancy of the ground roll contained in multifold seismic data. First, an automatic processing procedure is applied that allows stacking dispersion curves obtained from different records and which retrieves experimental uncertainties. This is carried out by sliding a window along a seismic line to obtain an ensemble of dispersion curves associated to a series of spatial coordinates. Then, a laterally constrained inversion algorithm is adopted to handle 2D effects, although a 1D model has been assumed for the forward problem solution. We have conducted different tests on three synthetic data sets to evaluate the effects of the processing parameters and of the constraints on the inversion results. The same procedure, applied to the synthetic data, was then tested on a field case. Both the synthetic and field data show that the proposed approach allows smooth lateral variations to be properly retrieved and that the introduction of lateral constraints improves the final result compared to individual inversions.     

中国东部夏季降水准两年振荡空间分布及背景场特征

本文采用经验正交函数展开(EOF)及相关分析等方法,使用中国气象局整编的160站1951~2005年月平均降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究了中国东部夏季降水准两年周期振荡的空间模态及其大气环流背景场.结果表明:(1)中国地区降水季节性差异明显,夏季是主要的降水期并具有明显的准两年周期振荡(TBO)特征,中国东部地区是降水TBO方差变化最大的区域.(2)中国东部夏季降水TBO存在两个主要的空间模态,第1模态以27°N为界南北成反位相的变化关系,降水振幅较大;第2模态降水振幅相对较小,大值中心位于河套-华北地区.(3)形成中国东部夏季降水TBO的两个主要空间模态环流背景场明显不同.第1模态与西太平洋海温成正相关,与东太平洋海温成负相关.第2模态则主要与日本海附近的海温成正相关.当夏季降水TBO以江淮偏多时(第1模态),西太平洋海温偏高,东太平洋海温偏低,中国东部及沿海上空850 hPa有异常反气旋,500 hPa高度相关场东亚上空呈"正负正"波列特征,200 hPa南亚高压加强,西风急流位置偏南.当夏季降水TBO降水位置偏北时(第2模态),中国东部及沿海上空有异常气旋,200 hPa南亚高压偏弱,西风急流位置偏北.     

Satellite-derived variability of the Aegean Sea ecohydrodynamics

Eight years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and SeaWiFS-derived surface chlorophyll (Chl) data (1998–2005) are used to investigate key processes affecting the spatial and temporal variability of the two parameters in the Aegean Sea. Seasonal mean SST and Chl maps are constructed using daily data to study seasonal dynamics whereas empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlational analysis is applied to the 8-day composite SST and Chl anomaly time-series in order to study the variability and co-variability of the two parameters from subseasonal to interannual time-scales. The seasonal mean fields show that Black Sea cold and chlorophyll-rich waters enter through the Dardanelles Strait and they are accumulated in the north-eastern part of the Aegean Sea, steered by the Samothraki anticyclone. Large chlorophyll concentrations are encountered in the hydrological front off the Dardanelles Strait as well as in coastal areas affected by large riverine/anthropogenic nutrient loads. The SST seasonal mean patterns reveal strong cooling that is associated with upwelling along the eastern boundary of the basin during summer due to strong northerly winds, a process which is not present in the surface chlorophyll climatology. The Chl dataset presents much stronger sub-seasonal variability than SST, with large variations in the phase and strength of the phytoplankton seasonal cycles. EOF analysis of the anomaly time-series shows that SST non-seasonal variability is controlled by synoptic weather variations and anomalies in the north–south wind-stress component regulating the summer coastal upwelling regime. Mean SST and Chl patterns, and their associated variations, are not closely linked implying that Black Sea and riverine inputs mainly control the intra-annual and interannual variability of the surface chlorophyll in the Aegean Sea rather than mixing and/or upwelling processes.     

Assessment of uncertainty sources in water quality modeling in the Niagara River

This paper presents a framework to quantify the overall variability of the model estimations of Total Polychlorinated Biphenyls (Total PCBs) concentrations in the Niagara River on the basis of the uncertainty of few model parameters and the natural variability embedded in some of the model input variables. The results of the uncertainty analysis are used to understand the importance of stochastic model components and their effect on the overall reliability of the model output and to evaluate multiple sources of uncertainty that might need to be further studied. The uncertainty analysis is performed using a newly developed point estimate method, the Modified Rosenblueth method. The water quality along the Niagara River is simulated by coupling two numerical models the Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) – for the hydrodynamic portion of the study and the Water Quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) – for the fate and transport of contaminants. For the monitoring period from May 1995 to March 1997, the inflow Total PCBs concentration from Lake Erie is the stochastic component that most influences the variability of the modeling results for the simulated concentrations at the exit of the Niagara River. Other significant stochastic components in order are as follows: the suspended sediments concentration, the point source loadings and to a minor degree the atmospheric deposition, the flow and the non-point source loadings. Model results that include estimates of uncertainty provide more comprehensive information about the variability of contaminant concentrations, such as confidence intervals, and, in general offer a better approach to compare model results with measured data.     

Diurnal-period,wind-forced ocean variability on the inner shelf off Concepción,Chile

We characterize the response of diurnal-period ocean current variability to the sea breeze using measurements of current velocity taken off the mouth of the Itata River and wind stress collected at Hualpen Point (central Chile) in spring of 2007 and summer of 2006 and 2008. During these three periods, the winds are predominately towards the northeast, following the coastal topography, with the highest variability found in the near-diurnal and synoptic frequency bands. The sea breeze amplitude is intermittent in time and is associated with synoptic-scale variability on the order of three to 15 days, so that the diurnal-period winds (and currents) are enhanced when the alongshore wind (i.e. upwelling-favorable) is strong. The water current variability in the near-diurnal band is significant, explaining up to 40% (spring 2007) of the total current variance in the first 15 m depth.     

Synoptic measurements of episodic offshore flow events in the central mid-Atlantic Bight

Sub-inertial across-shelf flows over the central mid-Atlantic Bight were examined using long-range CODAR SeaSonde type HF-radar surface velocities for the period August 2002 through February 2004. Across-shelf flow in this region was found to be episodic, with offshore flow occurring six times more often than onshore flow. Several recurring spatial patterns in offshore flow are identified, and two of these patterns emerge as statistically significant using empirical orthogonal functions. The most common type of offshore flow was a shelf-wide flow with events occurring throughout the year. The most energetic and well-defined shelf-wide flow events occurred during October through April, when the water column was less stratified. Other offshore flow patterns were more localized, with a flow at the bend or ‘point’ in the New Jersey coast being most common and most energetic. The offshore flow events identified here are capable of driving significant offshore transport, with more than one-third of offshore flow episodes having potential transport distances of greater than 14 km. In addition, clusters of multiple offshore flow events are shown to be capable of transporting near-surface material across much of the continental shelf.     

Effect of the annular solar eclipse of 15 January 2010 on the lower atmospheric boundary layer over a tropical rural station

This paper documents the effect of the annular solar eclipse of 15 January 2010 on the lower atmospheric boundary layer dynamics over a complex terrain environment at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E,) using a suite of instruments namely automatic weather station, mini boundary layer mast (15 m), Doppler SODAR, GPS radiosonde and ozonesonde observations. The net heating rates are estimated using radiative transfer algorithm before, during and after the eclipse. Effect on soil temperature is seen clearly up to 20 cm depth and at all the levels up to 15 m. Decrease in the thermal plume level, a dip in the surface layer and a strong vertical downdrafts (subsidence) are noticed during the peak eclipse. Upper layer winds did not show any variation during the eclipse. It is also found to have pronounced effect on all the surface meteorological parameters for a two-day period.     

2009年5月冀中南一次春季大暴雨成因分析

利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、常规天气图、全国自动加密观测资料和石家庄多普勒天气雷达等资料,对发生在河北省中南部的一次短时暴雨天气过程进行了分析。结果表明： 风速和风向在河北中南部的辐合促进了水汽的辐合。块状回波与带状回波交接处出现最大暴雨中心,逆风区和弱辐合区与较强降水相吻合。邢台次云区的形成与发展和北部主云区的发展密切相关,随着邢台北部低于-42?C云区范围扩大,邢台狭窄的强对流回波带形成。地面加密风场的变化以及中尺度辐合线的形成均对短时暴雨的发生有较好的指示作用,带状回波在地面辐合线附近快速强烈发展,而且随着河北中南部地面辐合线的消失而原地减弱。