利用独立成分分析检测2004年和2012年印度洋地震的重力变化

2004年12月苏门答腊发生M_W9.3地震,造成巨大的质量重新分布.利用GRACE卫星月重力场数据计算了研究区域地面1°×1°网格点上的重力变化时间序列,采用主成分分析和独立成分分析两种方法,提取了重力变化的空间与时间特征,结果显示震中两侧区域的重力变化呈两极分布,其中东侧重力下降,西侧重力增加.相较于传统的主成分分析方法,独立成分分析能更好地从原始信号中提取地震的信息,能分解出具有显著阶跃变化的独立成分.除了2004年的苏门答腊大地震外,独立成分分析还分解得到了2012年Andaman地震的特征,与该次地震的空间特征与时间序列基本一致.相较于适合定量分析的多项式拟合方法,独立成分分析更适合大范围区域的定性分析,建议将两种方法相结合,取长补短,从而为GRACE地震监测提供一种更为客观、有效的方法.     

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2004年印尼苏门答腊MW9.0地震前地震活动增强现象及其与地球自转的关系

选取2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊M_W9.0地震的余震分布空间范围为研究区域,该区域位于缅甸小板块中部,纬度范围为2°N~15°N.根据USGS地震目录,研究了2004年印尼苏门答腊M_W9.0地震前地震频次的时空变化,并分析了地震活动与地球自转的关系.结果显示:1)在余震区域范围内,地震频次自2000年开始出现了明显的上升趋势变化,反映了地震活动的增强过程,临近地震发生前,地震频次有一定幅度的回落;2)通过地震频次空间扫描,发现震前在震中附近区域地震活动增强显著;3)在1990~2004年的15年中,单位时间内发生的地震数在地球自转季节性变化减速时段与加速时段之比值r_da在震前出现明显的上升过程:1998年~2002年r_da缓慢上升,2002年底r_da快速上升达最高值,之后,r_da呈现下降趋势,直至苏门答腊M_W9.0地震发生;4)2000年1月~2004年11月间,在纬度1°N~7°N的空间范围内的震中附近地区, 5.5级以上地震都发生在地球自转季节性变化减速时段内;5)地震活动累积年频次相对于其长期平均值的变化量ΔN与地球自转"十年起伏"变化关系表现为地球自转减速时ΔN上升,地震活动增强,加速时ΔN下降,地震活动减弱.这些现象并非偶然,可能预示着地球自转减速与苏门答腊M_W9.0地震之间存在着某种联系,这些结果对地震孕育过程的认识和地震预测研究具有一定的价值.     

Structural controls on a geothermal system in the Tarutung Basin,north central Sumatra

The Sumatra Fault System provides a unique geologic setting to evaluate the influence of structural controls on geothermal activity. Whereas most of the geothermal systems in Indonesia are controlled by volcanic activity, geothermal systems at the Sumatra Fault System might be controlled by faults and fractures. Exploration strategies for these geothermal systems need to be verified because the typical pattern of heat source and alteration clays are missing so that conventional exploration with magnetotelluric surveys might not provide sufficient data to delineate favorable settings for drilling. We present field geological, structural and geomorphological evidence combined with mapping of geothermal manifestations to allow constraints between fault dynamics and geothermal activity in the Tarutung Basin in north central Sumatra. Our results indicate that the fault pattern in the Tarutung Basin is generated by a compressional stress direction acting at a high angle to the right-lateral Sumatra Fault System. NW–SE striking normal faults possibly related to negative flower structures and NNW-SSE to NNE-SSW oriented dilative Riedel shears are preferential fluid pathways whereas ENE–WSW striking faults act as barriers in this system. The dominant of geothermal manifestations at the eastern part of the basin indicates local extension due to clockwise block rotation in the Sumatra Fault System. Our results support the effort to integrate detailed field geological surveys to refined exploration strategies even in tropical areas where outcrops are limited.     

The tropical forest in south east Asia: Monitoring and scenario modeling using synthetic aperture radar data

Tropical forests play a major role in storing large carbon stocks and regulating energy, and water fluxes, but such forest cover is decreasing rapidly in spite of the policy attention on reducing deforestation. High-resolution spatiotemporal maps are unavailable for the forests in majority of the tropical regions in Asia because of the persistent cloud cover and haze cover. Recent advances in radar remote sensing have provided weather-independent data of earth surface, thus offering an opportunity to monitor tropical forest change processes with relatively high spatiotemporal resolutions. In this research, we aim to examine the tropical deforestation process and develop a spatial model to simulate future forest patterns under various scenarios. Riau Province from central Sumatra of Indonesia is selected as the study area; this province has received much attention worldwide because the highest CO₂ emission resulting from tropical deforestation has been recorded. Annual time series PALSAR data from 2007 to 2010 were analyzed for forest mapping and detecting land cover changes. A spatial model was calibrated using the Bayesian method. Modeling parameters were customized for the local subregions that allocate deforestation on the basis of their empirical relationships to physical and socioeconomic drivers. The model generated landscape spatial patterns mirrored the possible locations and extent of deforested areas by 2030 and provided time-series crucial information on forest landscape under various scenarios for future landscape management projects. The results suggested that the current deforestation process is in a critical stage where some subregions may face unprecedented stress on primary forest costing rivers and forest ecosystems by the end of 2020. The perspective views of Riau Province generated by the model highlighted the need for forest/environmental planning controls for the conservation of environmentally sensitive areas.     

苏门答腊巨大地震前后的区域应力状态

研究了2004年印尼苏门答腊巨大地震前后安达曼—苏门答腊大断裂带与缅甸实皆大断裂至中国中部南北地震带中南段的地震矩张量解资料,采用力轴张量计算法研究了各构造区(段)平均应力张量,结合大范围连续定点GPS观测资料的分析,给出巨大地震前后应力场的变化特征。苏门答腊巨大地震前后主压应力方位大体一致,震后呈现的张应力方位发生一定变化,作用力更陡。苏门答腊—安达曼大断裂带附近,地震多属逆倾滑动类型,少量为走滑错动类型,2004年12月26日苏门答腊9.0级地震后走滑错动型地震有明显增加。沿缅甸实皆大断裂至中国中部的南北地震带,震前倾滑和走滑型地震比例相当,而震后走滑错动型地震减少。2004～2007年印尼苏门答腊3次巨震虽然距青藏高原及边缘较远,巨大地震破裂造成相当大区域应变释放的影响是显著的,也是整体性的。分析结果表明,青藏高原东缘地区随印尼巨震过程,2003～2005年基线伸长变化,呈现的应力应变状态是拉张,2006年以来转平或缩短,基线缩短量有较明显增大,呈现为几次巨大地震后的恢复状态。研究得到的大区域应力场和大尺度地壳变形场的微动态呈现板块间汇聚挤压与恢复拉张,或应力增强、松弛、再增强的变化过程。     

东南亚及印度等国家地震活动及相关背景材料

本文文介绍了东南亚、印度等12个国家的地震活动性、负责地震监测和研究的组织机构、台站建设及分布、仪器设备情况、历史地震及损失情况等。     

数字化水位仪观测的苏门答腊大地震激发的地球球型自由振荡

利用LN-3型数字化水位仪的观测资料,采用功率谱密度估计方法,在没有对资料进行去固体潮处理的情况下,获得了2004年12月26日苏门答腊大地震激发的0S3～0S30基频球型自由振荡,并检测到2S1、1S2、1S3、2S5和2S6等5个谐频球型振荡,同时记录到一些明显的振型的谱线分裂现象。用水位观测资料提取了0S3、0S4和2S1等3个振型的谱线分裂周期,虽然3个振型均只得到2个单峰,但地球自由振荡谱线分裂现象的检测为研究地球的深内部结构提供了新的、不同类型的观测资料。研究表明,用数字化水位仪的观测资料可以提取到苏门答腊大地震激发的地球球型振荡,为地球自由振荡的研究提供了一种新的观测手段。     

黄骅井水位对苏门答腊5次地震的同震响应初步研究

利用ARX模型分析了河北省黄骅井水位对气压和固体潮的响应特征,并利用该模型消除气压和固体潮对该井水位的影响,准确地提取了5次苏门答腊大震引起的同震水位变化异常.分析了该井水位对这5次地震的同震响应模式与震级和震源机制解的关系,初步探讨了引起该井水位同震变化复杂性的可能原因.认为,即使发生在同一地区,震源机制解基本相同的地震也会引起远距离同一井水位不同的响应特征,其响应幅度与发震震级有关,响应方式可能与井孔所处地区的局部应力应变状态或井-含水层系统的结构变化有关.