全文获取类型
收费全文 | 3975篇 |
免费 | 791篇 |
国内免费 | 1395篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 992篇 |
大气科学 | 2541篇 |
地球物理 | 886篇 |
地质学 | 566篇 |
海洋学 | 232篇 |
天文学 | 184篇 |
综合类 | 266篇 |
自然地理 | 494篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 17篇 |
2023年 | 61篇 |
2022年 | 157篇 |
2021年 | 233篇 |
2020年 | 254篇 |
2019年 | 265篇 |
2018年 | 176篇 |
2017年 | 257篇 |
2016年 | 227篇 |
2015年 | 265篇 |
2014年 | 312篇 |
2013年 | 304篇 |
2012年 | 314篇 |
2011年 | 315篇 |
2010年 | 238篇 |
2009年 | 273篇 |
2008年 | 222篇 |
2007年 | 270篇 |
2006年 | 249篇 |
2005年 | 224篇 |
2004年 | 179篇 |
2003年 | 165篇 |
2002年 | 134篇 |
2001年 | 107篇 |
2000年 | 111篇 |
1999年 | 118篇 |
1998年 | 89篇 |
1997年 | 82篇 |
1996年 | 99篇 |
1995年 | 106篇 |
1994年 | 91篇 |
1993年 | 54篇 |
1992年 | 51篇 |
1991年 | 38篇 |
1990年 | 23篇 |
1989年 | 14篇 |
1988年 | 14篇 |
1987年 | 7篇 |
1986年 | 5篇 |
1985年 | 4篇 |
1984年 | 4篇 |
1983年 | 3篇 |
1982年 | 3篇 |
1979年 | 2篇 |
1978年 | 3篇 |
1976年 | 7篇 |
1975年 | 2篇 |
1973年 | 3篇 |
1972年 | 2篇 |
1971年 | 3篇 |
排序方式: 共有6161条查询结果,搜索用时 546 毫秒
941.
942.
Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability.
We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of
scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source
effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations
are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing
purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M
w
= 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation
relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances
<50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained
by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity
effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree
with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis. 相似文献
943.
Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals 总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1
Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper
tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular,
the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high
and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists
of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε
max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether
a physical basis for choosing ε
max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion
models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of
causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible
to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain
direct physical constraints on ε
max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice
of ε
max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated
with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε
max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore,
the absolute truncation level implied by ε
max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε
max value impractical. 相似文献
944.
裂隙岩体内的节理往往是变化的,有时甚至变化很大。测得大量节理产状以后,对其分组是一项基础性的工作,但是如何分组目前还没有很好的理论和方法。采用快速聚类分析的方法,将节理产状的样本数据划分为不同的簇,利用极大似然估计的原理,通过数值方法求解费歇尔概率分布模型的参数,并用皮尔逊检验说明了费歇尔逊概率模型的有效性。通过不同簇的概率模型计算及其簇心的分布特性比较说明了簇数分类的适度性。利用所提出的快速聚类分析方法及其推导的计算公式,可以方便地求解费歇尔分布的参数。结合皮尔逊检验,形成了解决这类问题的系统实用的方法。 相似文献
945.
通过对云南玉龙雪山丽江冷杉年轮晚材纤维素氧同位素 (δ18O) 的分析,建立了1902-2004时段年分辨率的树轮δ18O序列。将所得序列与相邻的丽江市气象站记录的气候资料对比,分析了树轮δ18O对气候要素的响应。结果表明,丽江冷杉年轮晚材中的δ18O与其生长季气候因子密切相关。主要与季风期 (8-10月) 的降水和相对湿度、6-10月总云量、5-6月平均温度显著相关,尤其和总云量相关性最高 (r = -0.45,P = 0.01)。同时,树轮δ18O年际变化与南亚季风指数、东亚夏季风指数呈反相关关系,并与1-5月南方涛动指数负相关显著,在一定程度上反映了大尺度的大气环流影响。 相似文献
946.
This paper describes studies on the integrated risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disaster in Heilongjiang Province,in northeastern China,by using information-diffusion theory and cluster method with 35 years of summer temperature and precipitation data from 74 meteorological stations from 1971 through 2005.The information-diffusion theory has been used extensively in risk assessment,yet almost no one has done research about risk assessment by information-diffusion theory based on meteorological disaster standards.Some research results are as follows:the risk probability of low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is higher than that in the southern region;the risk probability of general low temperature and cold damage in the southwestern region is the highest;the risk probability of serious low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is the highest,followed by the central and southeast region;the high-risk region of arid disaster in Heilongjiang Province was primarily located in the southwestern,central,and southern parts of the province;the high-intensity arid disaster was located in the south-eastern region;the high-risk region of flood in Heilongjiang Province was primarily located from the southwest and then across the central part to the western part of Heilongjiang Province;the high-intensity flood disasters were located in almost every part of Heilongjiang Province.We can conclude from the integrated meteorological disaster risk zoning that the high-risk region of mete-orological disaster is primarily located in the southern and northern part of the province,the moderate-risk region is distributed in the central southern region and western region,the low-risk region is located in the eastern part,and the light-risk region is located in the central western part of Heilongjiang Province. 相似文献
947.
948.
文中讨论了库水渗漏在水库诱发地震中的作用,经过分析研究现有的水库诱发地震资料及相关理论,类比蒸汽锅炉与重力热管的热工原理,提出了水库地震成因的超临界水二级相变孕震模型。模型在水库孕震的各阶段表现为:初始阶段,渗漏水在压力注射和重力作用下形成水塞密封盖层,在超临界温区的地层裂隙中引发二级相变循环对流;孕育阶段,地层原生裂隙在高围压条件下形成应力腐蚀、化学蚀变、温差应力破碎作用,从而原生裂隙更加发育,制造了更大的对流循环通道;临震突变阶段,在热管下部热交换区内的临界水热通量剧增,超临界水发生横向流动,向封盖层外部扩散;发震阶段,在超临界水重力热管的通量和热管上部交换区所形成的压力,超过地层或封盖层的破坏极限时,推动上部地层做活塞运动导致地震 相似文献
949.
汶川8.0级与昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动异常特征与启示 总被引:8,自引:1,他引:7
两次特大地震前在不同时段、 不同范围出现了多项相似的地震活动性异常, 它们对预测特大地震具有一定意义: ① 两次大震前10余年, 青藏块体同期出现了两个规模巨大的中强以上地震增强区, 两次大地震发生在增强区内的空区里; ② 两次巨大地震前数年, 形成规模巨大的中强地震活动带, 地震发生在两个条带间的平静区里; 同期形成中等以上地震活动环, 其内部的地震频度、 加卸载响应比及非均匀度等参数甚高, 且随时间而变化, 这可作为孕震进入中期的信号; ③ 两次大震前的震群、 震丛均很显著, 昆仑山口西地震前四个显著震丛环绕震中四周分布, 汶川地震前震群在震中周围形成包围圈, 它们应视为大震孕育进入后期的显示; ④ 大震前数月, 靠近发震断裂带发生少量中小地震或少见的震群。 汶川地震前10个月, 龙门山断裂带北部发生两次青川4级多地震和松潘4.3级地震, 南部康定附近发生3次4级以上地震。 紫坪铺水库区小震群于震前3个月活动十分强烈。 昆仑山口西地震前约1年青海兴海发生6.6级地震, 昆仑山口西发生5.1级地震, 该地震距离8.1级地震约30 km。这些特征给我们的重要启示是: ① 特大地震前出现的前兆时空特征与常见的中强地震差异很大, 现行的监测预报体制(分省分片负责)与特大地震前兆不相适应; ② 特大地震的预测预报不能单纯依靠地震前兆, 必须与地质构造及深部探测紧密结合起来; ③ 特大地震的预测预报应有新的预报战略、 观测系统与组织机构相适应。 相似文献
950.
中国大陆强震活动时空特征分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文在以往研究的基础上分析中国大陆强震活动的时空特征, 以中国大陆1901年以来7级及其以上强震年频次为样本, 采用最优分割将中国大陆地震活动状态分为三种时段: 少发段、 平均段和频发段。 中国大陆强震时间活动呈现非稳态现象, 强震频发段间存在短期的地震平静, 由强震平均段到频发段过渡期间同样存在强震少发段, 而少发段也有7级以上强震发生。 以此为基础结合中国大陆活动地块边界带, 研究不同强震丛发时段前地震活动的空间分布特点以及强震丛发时段的主体活动地区。 研究结果表明, 1901年以来中国大陆强震活动总体来讲, 1955年前后表现出不同的空间特征: 1955年之前强震活动主体区域为中国西部及周边大三角地区的三条边界; 1955年之后强震活动主体区域为华北地区、 巴颜喀拉地块区及南北地震带南段地区。 不同相邻强震丛发时段的主体活动地区有一定的交替性, 少发时段或增多时段的强震往往是上一个丛发时段的主体区内强震活动的延续, 或者发生在下一个强震主体活动区内或周边地区。 相似文献