Applications of the random model of drainage basin composition

The random model of drainage basin composition is founded on the assumptions that (a) natural channels are topologically random in the absence of geological controls and (b) for channel networks developed in similar environments, the exterior and interior link lengths are independent random variables with a common distribution for each type. The effectiveness of this model in estimating the values of geomorphic variables and in explaining and predicting geomorphic relationships is illustrated by several examples. The data required for these examples were obtained from map studies of 30 channel networks, comprising a total of about 8700 links, in eastern Kentucky. A common factor in the success of all three applications of the model is the way in which the planimetric features of drainage basins are determined by their underlying topologic structure.     

Stars of later spectral classes from the FBS survey. Preliminary data for seven special cases

Preliminary data are presented on seven “special” objects found in low-dispersion spectral plates of the FBS survey. The first object, FBS 0250+167, is found to be a class M7 dwarf with a high proper motion (∼5.130 arcsec/year) lying about 3 pc from the sun. Three of the objects, with spectra of classes M8–M9, are suspected of being long-period Mirids with large mass losses and surrounded by dense clouds. The three remaining objects have very short low-dispersion spectra on the FBS survey plates (clearly they are non stellar objects) and are of interest for later detailed study. __________ Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 50, No. 1, pp. 73–85 (February 2007).     

On the motion around the centre of mass of a viscously elastic sphere in the restricted elliptic three-body problem

In the restricted three-body problem we consider the motion of a viscously elastic sphere (planet) with its centre of mass moving in a conditionally-periodic orbit. The approximate equations describing the rotational motion of the sphere in terms of the Andoyer variables are obtained by the method of the separation of motion and averaging; the evolution of the motion is also analysed.     

南海北部陆架区两个台风过境时近惯性运动的若干特征

Features of near-inertial motions on the shelf(60 m deep) of the northern South China Sea were observed under the passage of two typhoons during the summer of 2009. There are two peaks in spectra at both sub-inertial and super-inertial frequencies. The super-inertial energy maximizes near the surface, while the sub-inertial energy maximizes at a deeper layer of 15 m. The sub-inertial shift of frequency is induced by the negative background vorticity. The super-inertial shift is probably attributed to the near-inertial wave propagating from higher latitudes. The near-inertial currents exhibit a two-layer pattern being separated at mid-depth(25–30 m), with the phase in the upper layer being nearly opposite to that in the lower layer. The vertical propagation of phase implies that the near-inertial energy is not dominantly downward. The upward flux of the near-inertial energy is more evident at the surface layer(17 m). There exist two boundaries at 17 and 40 m, where the near-inertial energy is reflected upward and downward. The near-inertial motion is intermittent and can reach a peak of as much as 30 cm/s. The passage of Typhoon Nangka generates an intensive near-inertial event, but Typhoon Linfa does not. This difference is attributed to the relative mooring locations, which is on the right hand side of Nangka's path(leading to a wind pattern rotating clockwise with time) and is on the left hand side of Linfa's path(leading to a wind pattern rotating anti-clockwise with time).     

A rational approach to seepage flow effects on bottom friction beneath random waves

The bottom friction beneath random waves is predicted taking into account the effect of seepage flow. This is achieved by using wave friction factors for rough turbulent, smooth turbulent and laminar flow valid for regular waves together with a modified Shields parameter which includes the effect of seepage flow. Examples using data typical to field conditions are included to illustrate the approach. The analytical results can be used to make assessment of seepage effects on the bottom friction based on available wave statistics. Generally, it is recommended that a stochastic approach should be used rather than using the rms values in an otherwise deterministic approach.     

The manifolds of families of 3D periodic orbits associated to Sitnikov motions in the restricted three-body problem

This paper deals with the Sitnikov family of straight-line motions of the circular restricted three-body problem, viewed as generator of families of three-dimensional periodic orbits. We study the linear stability of the family, determine several new critical orbits at which families of three dimensional periodic orbits of the same or double period bifurcate and present an extensive numerical exploration of the bifurcating families. In the case of the same period bifurcations, 44 families are determined. All these families are computed for equal as well as for nearly equal primaries (μ = 0.5, μ = 0.4995). Some of the bifurcating families are determined for all values of the mass parameter μ for which they exist. Examples of families of three dimensional periodic orbits bifurcating from the Sitnikov family at double period bifurcations are also given. These are the only families of three-dimensional periodic orbits presented in the paper which do not terminate with coplanar orbits and some of them contain stable parts. By contrast, all families bifurcating at single-period bifurcations consist entirely of unstable orbits and terminate with coplanar orbits.     

全球纬向平均的海气耦合一维模式分析

本文从能量平衡角度,考虑海气相互作用和纬向间的差异,设计了一个纬向平均的海气耦合一维模式,进行了模式平衡态求解、敏感性试验以及随机分析。并对模式部分计算结果进行了与实测资料的比较,验证了模式的合理性和可信性。     

Water balance modelling in lateritic terrain

An analytical approximate model for unsaturated flow in a spatially variable field, coupled with infiltration and evapotranspiration at the upper boundary and a fluctuating water-table at the lower boundary, has been developed. The unsaturated flow equations depend on parameterizations of θ(Φ) and K(Φ). They are based on the notion of a moving, discontinuous front. The field heterogeneity refers to saturated hydraulic conductivity only. Horizontal variability is considered, and the flow medium is approximated as a set of uncorrelated, vertically homogeneous columns. Expectations and variances obtained with this approach have been compared with observations of the field hydrological processes. Three important aspects of the hydrology in this lateritic terrain are rapid water-table response, Hortonian surface runoff generation and soil suction variability. The stochastic conceptualization used explains to a high degree these characteristics, although some limitations are demonstrated.     

Efficient stochastic analysis of unsaturated slopes subjected to various rainfall intensities and patterns

Rainfall infiltration poses a disastrous threat to the slope stability in many regions around the world. This paper proposes an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)-based stochastic analysis framework to estimate the rainfall-induced slope failure probability. An unsaturated slope under rainfall infiltration in spatially varying soils is selected in this study to investigate the influences of the spatial variability of soil properties (including effective cohesion c′, effective friction angle φ′ and saturated hydraulic conductivity k_s), as well as rainfall intensity and rainfall pattern on the slope failure probability. Results show that the proposed framework in this study is capable of computing the failure probability with accuracy and high efficiency. The spatial variability of k_s cannot be overlooked in the reliability analysis. Otherwise, the rainfall-induced slope failure probability will be underestimated. It is found that the rainfall intensity and rainfall pattern have significant effect on the probability of failure. Moreover, the failure probabilities under various rainfall intensities and patterns can be easily obtained with the aid of the proposed framework, which can provide timely guidance for the landslide emergency management departments.     

随机Petri网在地震应急协同能力定量评价与动态分析中的应用

地震应急是一个复杂动态的过程,需要各部门协同配合方能高效开展应急工作。本文通过调研分析历史地震应急处置案例,提出了Ⅰ、Ⅱ级应急响应下多主体地震应急协同的一般流程,构建了相应的随机Petri网模型,并基于Petri网可能出现的状态集同构马尔科夫链,在计算各应急状态稳定概率的基础上,定量评价应急协同能力。同时,将应急过程中利用率高的变迁所对应的应急行为,作为应急处置的关键环节。通过调整各关键环节的应急速率,进一步对应急协同能力进行动态分析,进而提出有效提高应急协同联动能力的相关建议,为科学开展地震应急处置工作提供支持。