Recent Advances in Prediction and Processing of Strong Ground Motions

We present an overview of our recent results on utilizing small earthquakes in the earthquake engineering practice. Site-specific ground motion time-histories of large earthquakes can be successfully simulated using recordings of small earthquakes which are often referred to as 'empirical Green's functions' in seismology. Another important practical problem is whether and how these observations can be used in seismic risk studies which are based on empirical attenuation relations for ground motion parameters. We study a possibility of extrapolating attenuation relations for small earthquakes, to larger magnitudes using the data from the Garner Valley downhole array in Southern California. Finally we introduce efficient ground motion processing techniques in frequency- and time-domains and apply them to site response estimation.     

建筑物沉降规律的综合时序分析

建筑物的沉降监测数据序列具有趋势变化和随机变化的特点，本文针对两种变化项的特点分别建立相应的数学模型，再将其组合起来建立综合数学模型，从总体上把握沉降数据序列的变化规律。实例计算分析表明，此方法具有较高的拟合精度和预测能力，具有一定的应用参考价值。     

The effective number of cycles of earthquake ground motion

The seismic response of any system that accumulates damage under cyclic loading is dependent not only on the maximum amplitude of the motion but also its duration. This is explicitly recognized in methods for estimating the liquefaction potential of soil deposits. Many researchers have proposed that the effective number of cycles of the ground motion is a more robust indicator of the destructive capacity of the shaking than the duration. However, as is the case with strong‐motion duration, there is no universally accepted approach to determining the effective number of cycles of motion, and the different methods that have been proposed can give widely varying results for a particular accelerogram. Definitions of the effective number of cycles of motion are reviewed, classified and compared. Measurements are found to differ particularly for accelerograms with broad‐banded frequency content, which contain a significant number of non‐zero crossing peaks. The key seismological parameters influencing the number of cycles of motion and associated equations for predicting this quantity for future earthquakes are identified. Correlations between cycle counts and different duration measures are explored and found to be rather poor in the absence of additional parameters. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Creation of the Cocos and Nazca plates by fission of the Farallon plate

Throughout the Early Tertiary the area of the Farallon oceanic plate was episodically diminished by detachment of large and small northern regions, which became independently moving plates and microplates. The nature and history of Farallon plate fragmentation has been inferred mainly from structural patterns on the western, Pacific-plate flank of the East Pacific Rise, because the fragmented eastern flank has been subducted. The final episode of plate fragmentation occurred at the beginning of the Miocene, when the Cocos plate was split off, leaving the much reduced Farallon plate to be renamed the Nazca plate, and initiating Cocos–Nazca spreading. Some Oligocene Farallon plate with rifted margins that are a direct record of this plate-splitting event has survived in the eastern tropical Pacific, most extensively off northern Peru and Ecuador. Small remnants of the conjugate northern rifted margin are exposed off Costa Rica, and perhaps south of Panama. Marine geophysical profiles (bathymetric, magnetic and seismic reflection) and multibeam sonar swaths across these rifted oceanic margins, combined with surveys of 30–20 Ma crust on the western rise-flank, indicate that (i) Localized lithospheric rupture to create a new plate boundary was preceded by plate stretching and fracturing in a belt several hundred km wide. Fissural volcanism along some of these fractures built volcanic ridges (e.g., Alvarado and Sarmiento Ridges) that are 1–2 km high and parallel to “absolute” Farallon plate motion; they closely resemble fissural ridges described from the young western flank of the present Pacific–Nazca rise. (ii) For 1–2 m.y. prior to final rupture of the Farallon plate, perhaps coinciding with the period of lithospheric stretching, the entire plate changed direction to a more easterly (“Nazca-like”) course; after the split the northern (Cocos) part reverted to a northeasterly absolute motion. (iii) The plate-splitting fracture that became the site of initial Cocos–Nazca spreading was a linear feature that, at least through the 680 km of ruptured Oligocene lithosphere known to have avoided subduction, did not follow any pre-existing feature on the Farallon plate, e.g., a “fracture zone” trail of a transform fault. (iv) The margins of surviving parts of the plate-splitting fracture have narrow shoulders raised by uplift of unloaded footwalls, and partially buried by fissural volcanism. (v) Cocos–Nazca spreading began at 23 Ma; reports of older Cocos–Nazca crust in the eastern Panama Basin were based on misidentified magnetic anomalies.There is increased evidence that the driving force for the 23 Ma fission of the Farallon plate was the divergence of slab-pull stresses at the Middle America and South America subduction zones. The timing and location of the split may have been influenced by (i) the increasingly divergent northeast slab pull at the Middle America subduction zone, which lengthened and reoriented because of motion between the North America and Caribbean plates; (ii) the slightly earlier detachment of a northern part of the plate that had been entering the California subduction zone, contributing a less divergent plate-driving stress; and (iii) weakening of older parts of the plate by the Galapagos hotspot, which had come to underlie the equatorial region, midway between the risecrest and the two subduction zones, by the Late Oligocene.     

Détermination expérimentale des paramètres équivalents d'un milieu poreux hétérogène en écoulements uniforme ou radial

Tracer tests are carried out in a heterogeneous porous medium that has a 3D correlated random distribution of the permeabilities. The fitting of numerical models provides the values of equivalent permeability and macrodispersivity characterizing a 2D homogeneous horizontal medium. Different flow configurations are studied: uniform, radial and pump and treat (doublet). The fitted parameter sets are independent of the flow type, except for the doublet. They are greater than the values predicted by stochastic theories, due to the small number of correlation lengths explored by the tracer and the limited extension of the experimental set-up. To cite this article: C. Danquigny, P. Ackerer, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

An experimental investigation into the influence of the damage openings on ship response

Ship motions after damage are difficult to evaluate since they are affected by complex phenomena regarding fluid and structures interactions. The possibility to better understand how ship behavior in damage is influenced by these phenomena is important for improving ship safety, especially for passenger vessel.In this paper an experimental campaign is carried out on a passenger ferry hull, to show the effects of the water dynamics across damage openings on ship motions. Novel aspects of this research include the study of the effects of the damage position on the ship roll response. The study is carried out for still water and for beam regular waves at zero speed.Results from the experiments carried out underline that the roll behavior of a damaged ship is affected by the position of damage opening and not only by its size. Assuming the same final equilibrium conditions after flooding but characterized by different damage openings it is possible to observe how motions RAOs and roll decay characteristics modify according to the opening locations.     

Stability and capsizing analysis of nonlinear ship rolling in wind and stochastic beam seas

Considering the actual seaway condition, stability and capsizing of nonlinear ship rolling system in stochastic beam seas is of significant importance for voyage safety. Safe zone are defined in the phase space plan of the unperturbed Hamilton system to qualitatively distinguish ship motions as capsize and noncapsize. Capsize events are defined by solutions passing out of the safe zone. The probability of such an occurrence is studied by virtue of the random Melnikov function and the concept of phase space flux. In this paper, besides conventional wave excitation, the effect of wind load is also taken into account. The introduction of wind load will lead to asymmetry, in other words, it transforms the symmetric heteroclinic orbits into asymmetric homoclinic orbits. For asymmetric dynamical system, the orbital analytic solutions and its power spectrum are not readily available, and the technique of discrete time Fourier transformation (DTFT) is used. In the end, as verification of theoretical critical significant wave height, capsizing probability contour diagram is generated by means of numerical simulation. The contour diagram shows that these analytical methods provide reliable and predictive results about the likelihood of a vessel capsizing in a given seaway condition.     

GRAPES全球集合预报系统模式扰动随机动能补偿方案初步探究

为了体现次网格尺度能量升尺度转换过程中存在的不确定性, 文中将随机动能补偿(Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter, SKEB)方案应用于GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球集合预报系统(GRAPES-GEPS), 以更好地表征模式误差并且增大集合离散度。使用的SKEB方案基于具有一定时、空相关特征的随机型以及由数值扩散导致的局地动能耗散率来构造随机流函数强迫。并根据流函数与水平风速旋转分量的关系, 将SKEB方案中的流函数强迫转化为适用于GRAPES全球模式的水平风速扰动。结果表明, SKEB方案的使用一方面能够提高GRAPES对大气动能谱的模拟能力; 另一方面能够改善GRAPES-GEPS的集合离散度与集合平均误差的关系, 增加了集合离散度, 并在一定程度上减小了集合平均误差, 尤其是在热带地区这种改进更为显著。而且该方案使得热带地区连续分级概率评分(CRPS评分)显著减小。就降水预报而言, 从Brier评分与相对作用特征面积(AROC, Area under the Relative Operating Characteristics)的结果来看, SKEB方案有助于改善中国地区小雨[0.1 mm, 10 mm)、中雨[10 mm, 25 mm)与大雨[25 mm, 50 mm)量级降水的概率预报技巧, 而对暴雨[50 mm, ∞)量级降水预报技巧影响很小(24 h降水量)。总体上, 模式扰动随机动能补偿方案提高了GRAPES-GEPS的概率预报技巧。      

ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF NON-LINEAR SOIL RESPONSE AND DYNAMIC SOIL PROPERTIES USING VERTICAL ARRAY DATA IN JAPAN

Non-linear response of the soil is investigated by comparing the spectral ratios (uphole/downhole) using weak and strong motions. Data from seven vertical arrays in Japan are analysed in this study. The frequency-dependent transfer function of soil is calculated as a ratio of the spectrum at uphole to the spectrum at downhole, considering the horizontal component of shear wave. In spectral ratio analysis auto- and cross-spectra are employed. The reduction in the predominant frequency of the transfer function with increases in excitation level reflects the non-linear response of the soil. Results of analysis demonstrate a significant non-linear ground response at six sites with surface PGA exceeding 90 gal. However, the results of one site show the linear response up to 130 gal surface PGA. Furthermore, the in situ strain-dependent soil behaviour is examined through the shear modulus – shear strain relationship. When compared, the actual and laboratory results of the shear strain – shear modulus relationship are in agreement. Additionally, a good consistency between the tendency of reduction in shear modulus ratio with shear strain increases, and reduction of predominant frequency with ground motion increases, confirms the significance of non-linearity in site effects study.     

Programme of the Galactic meridian: Star counts and Galactic models 2. Distribution of absolute proper motions

A comparison of the observed distribution of absolute proper motions with a kinematical model of the Galaxy is presented. Proper motions with respect to galaxies were obtained for about 40 000 stars along the main Galactic meridian and in two fields near the North Galactic pole (programme MEGA). The Galaxy is considered as composed of the disk (main sequence and disk red giants), the thick disk and spheroid populations. For each subsystem, spatial velocity components and their dispersions were computed. The distribution of kinematical parameters were modelled for stars located in different directions of the Galaxy.