Regression modeling method of space weather prediction

A regression modeling method of space weather prediction is proposed. It allows forecasting Dst index up to 6 hours ahead with about 90% correlation. It can also be used for constructing phenomenological models of interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. With its help two new geoeffective parameters were found: latitudinal and longitudinal flow angles of the solar wind. It was shown that Dst index remembers its previous values for 2000 hours.     

数理统计在工程勘察原始数据合理性检验中的应用

在工程勘察内业资料整理过程中,原始数据的合理性检验是一个重要过程,这里着重介绍3σ准则和Chauvenet准则,并绘制相关程序流程图,使数理统计之计算电算化,以达到提高工作效率的目的。     

遥感技术在鄂尔多斯盆地东南部煤层气勘探中的应用

从鄂尔多斯盆地黄土塬区煤层气勘探的实际需要出发,通过遥感解译,利用裂缝密度统计分析方法,对研究区煤层气高渗区带进行了预测,并对区内煤层气勘探的有利区带进行了初步评价,为煤层气勘探提供了重要的参考资料.     

“频谱分析法”在兰州市地下水水源地水情预报中的应用

利用“频谱分析法”预报地下水位经实际监测结果的误差检验，认为该方法用于地下水水源地水位预报是基本可行的。为今后广泛开展地下水情预测预报提供了一条有效途径。     

中国大陆强震灾害范围的统计研究

强震的灾害范围是非常重要的地震学参数,它在地震灾害快速评估,地震保险及防震减灾等方面有着广泛的应用。本文全面,系统地收集了中国大陆宏观等震线资料,对没有地理坐标的等震线进行了数字化。精确计算了从１３０３年至１９９４年共１８３次强震的灾害范围,并对误差因素进行了分析。     

Regularization of geopotential determination from satellite data by variance components

 Different types of present or future satellite data have to be combined by applying appropriate weighting for the determination of the gravity field of the Earth, for instance GPS observations for CHAMP with satellite to satellite tracking for the coming mission GRACE as well as gradiometer measurements for GOCE. In addition, the estimate of the geopotential has to be smoothed or regularized because of the inversion problem. It is proposed to solve these two tasks by Bayesian inference on variance components. The estimates of the variance components are computed by a stochastic estimator of the traces of matrices connected with the inverse of the matrix of normal equations, thus leading to a new method for determining variance components for large linear systems. The posterior density function for the variance components, weighting factors and regularization parameters are given in order to compute the confidence intervals for these quantities. Test computations with simulated gradiometer observations for GOCE and satellite to satellite tracking for GRACE show the validity of the approach. Received: 5 June 2001 / Accepted: 28 November 2001     

实验室仪器设备的日常运行检查及检查结果的评价

对实验室需要参加运行检查的仪器设备进行了确认 ,制定了运行检查的方法 ,并介绍了运行检查结果的评价方法。     

西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化的统计特征

应用 35a的资料 ,分析西北太平洋热带气旋 (TC)强度变化的基本统计特征 ,包括年代际、年际、月际、日变化和区域分布等。主要结果有 :(1)西北太平洋TC平均增强速率为 4.97hPa/6h ,标准差是 4.5 4hPa/6h。平均减弱速率为 5 .15hPa/6h ,标准差是 4.17hPa/6h ;(2 ) 2 0世纪 6 0年代中后期TC强度变幅小 ,进入 2 0世纪 70和 80年代后有所增大 ;(3) 11月TC平均增强速度最快 ,2月最慢 ,8月是TC强度变幅较小的月份 ;(4) 0 8时 (北京时 ,下同 )TC平均增强速度最快 ,14时最慢 ,平均减弱速度无明显日变化特征 ;(5 )TC发展较快的一个主要区域是 12 .5～ 2 0°N ,132 .5～ 15 0°E ,TC平均减弱速率的高值区在岛屿和大陆沿岸。在南海中部活动的TC平均强度变幅不大。依据平均值与标准差的数学涵义 ,给出了TC强度稳定、缓慢变化和迅速变化的标准。在对各级强度变化发生频率的年代际、年际、月际、日变化以及区域分布特征分别进行分析的基础上 ,重点给出了在大陆和岛屿附近迅速增强样本和在远离陆地的洋面上迅速减弱样本的一些统计特征。     

Statistics of Wind and Waves off Tsuyazaki, Fukuoka, in the Eastern Tsushima Strait

The variability of the sea surface wind and wind waves in the coastal area of the Eastern Tsushima Strait was investigated based on the hourly data from 1990 to 1997 obtained at a station 2 km off Tsuyazaki, Fukuoka. The annual mean wind speed was 4.84 m s⁻¹, with strong northwesterly monsoon in winter and weak southwesterly wind in summer. Significant wave heights and wave periods showed similar sinusoidal seasonal cycles around their annual means of 0.608 m and 4.77 s, respectively. The seasonal variability relative to the annual mean is maximum for wave heights, medium for wind speeds, and minimum for wave periods. Significant wave heights off Tsuyazaki turned out to be bounded by a criterion, which is proportional to the square of the significant wave period corresponding to a constant steepness, irrespective of the season or the wind speed. For terms shorter than a month, the significant wave height and the wave period were found to have the same spectral form as the inshore wind velocity: white for frequencies less than 0.2 day⁻¹ and proportional to the frequency to the −5/3 power for higher frequencies, where the latter corresponds to the inertial subrange of turbulence. The spectral levels of wave heights and wave periods in that inertial range were also correlated with those of the inshore wind velocity, though the scatter was large. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

航空工业组团阎良片区土动力学参数统计分析

基于航空工业组团阎良片区地震小区划项目中大量动三轴试验结果,通过双曲线拟合方法,得到主要土类（黄土状土、粉质粘土、粉土、细砂）在8个典型剪应变（0.000005、0.00001、0.00005、0.0001、0.0005、0.001、0.005、0.01）下的动剪切模量比和阻尼比统计值,并将得到的统计值与廖振鹏给出的建议值、陈党民等给出的典型值和袁晓铭等给出的推荐值进行比较,进一步论证土动力学参数的地域性特征。文中还探讨了土样埋深和取样手段（试样等级）对动剪切模量比和阻尼比的影响。文中给出的统计值可为该片区地震小区划中的土层地震反应模型提供参数,同时也为研究该片区场地土动力特性及重大工程地震安全性评价工作提供参考和借鉴。