汶川地震断裂带科学钻探项目WFSD-4孔钻探施工概况和关键技术

介绍了汶川地震断裂带科学钻探项目WFSD-4孔钻探施工概况及采用的关键技术,包括螺杆马达-液动锤-长半合管取心钻进技术、偏心扩孔取心技术、防冲蚀取心钻头技术、大斜度定向钻进技术、活动套管技术、新型钻井液体系和新型深孔取心钻机等。     

日常生活数字化转向的时间地理学应对

信息和通信技术(ICTs)对日常生活产生重要影响,而时间地理学及时应对了日常生活的数字化转向。论文梳理了日常生活数字化转向的基本特征,包括破碎化、多任务与时空替代等方面。相关实证研究试图回答ICTs是否以及如何改变日常生活,但是忽略了对其内在机制的阐释。时间地理学应对日常生活数字化转向的最新研究包括理论扩展与可视化及分析工具发展等方面,这为理解与刻画日常生活的数字化转向提供了新的理论框架与有效工具。研究发现,首先,经典时间地理学的理论和概念可扩展应用于虚拟空间中的行为。时空间去耦合是日常生活数字化转向的内在机制。其次,基于GIS开发了物质—虚拟混合空间行为的可视化和测度方法。最后,新时间地理学对日常活动复杂情境的分析直观揭示了日常生活数字化转向的时空去耦合机制与破碎化、多任务、时空替代等基本特征,并提出前后台活动、ICT介导的活动束、ICT介导的秩序口袋等理解移动ICTs影响下日常活动转型的创新概念。最后,以时间地理学为基础,提出以实虚活动系统为核心的日常生活数字化转向研究框架,并从数字生活、智慧社会和安全城市等方面讨论未来研究议题。     

Bayesian area-to-point kriging using expert knowledge as informative priors

Area-to-point (ATP) kriging is a common geostatistical framework to address the problem of spatial disaggregation or downscaling from block support observations (BSO) to point support (PoS) predictions for continuous variables. This approach requires that the PoS variogram is known. Without PoS observations, the parameters of the PoS variogram cannot be deterministically estimated from BSO, and as a result, the PoS variogram parameters are uncertain. In this research, we used Bayesian ATP conditional simulation to estimate the PoS variogram parameters from expert knowledge and BSO, and quantify uncertainty of the PoS variogram parameters and disaggregation outcomes. We first clarified that the nugget parameter of the PoS variogram cannot be estimated from only BSO. Next, we used statistical expert elicitation techniques to elicit the PoS variogram parameters from expert knowledge. These were used as informative priors in a Bayesian inference of the PoS variogram from BSO and implemented using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. ATP conditional simulation was done to obtain stochastic simulations at point support. MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) atmospheric temperature profile data were used in an illustrative example. The outcomes from the Bayesian ATP inference for the Matérn variogram model parameters confirmed that the posterior distribution of the nugget parameter was effectively the same as its prior distribution; for the other parameters, the uncertainty was substantially decreased when BSO were introduced to the Bayesian ATP estimator. This confirmed that expert knowledge brought new information to infer the nugget effect at PoS while BSO only brought new information to infer the other parameters. Bayesian ATP conditional simulations provided a satisfactory way to quantify parameters and model uncertainty propagation through spatial disaggregation.     

地震动力分析的经典方法与现代计算技术

回顾了体系地震动力分析的历史过程，并对地震动力分析的传统理论方法、近似方法和现代计算技术从新的角度加以阐述，同时给出体系地震动力分析的应用前景，以促进经典的传统理论方法、近似方法和现代计算技术的综合和在实际工程中的应用，形成系统而完整的地震动力分析体系。     

沉积盆地构造核心理论和关键技术方法:前沿与发展方向

系统分析前人在沉积盆地构造研究的基础上,论文总结了沉积盆地构造核心理论和关键技术方法的前沿与发展方向。沉积盆地构造核心理论包括盆地分类理论、成盆机制理论、变形定量分析理论和盆地充填过程理论。盆地分类理论是依据不同分类标准建立盆地分类方案,其发展趋势是基于资源与构造背景的原型盆地分类和基于盆地演化的叠合盆地分类;成盆机制理论是定量模拟不同作用机制下(纯热机制、构造作用、负载作用)盆地沉降过程及其控制因素,其发展趋势是三维成盆动力学模拟;变形定量分析理论包括断层相关褶皱理论、临界楔理论和盐构造理论,其发展趋势是三维构造建模与三维定量变形分析;盆地充填过程理论主要开展不同构造成因盆地的充填过程对比与盆山过程的源-汇分析,其发展趋势是多元源-汇分析与定量化盆地分析。沉积盆地构造关键前沿技术包括三维构造建模技术、构造物理模拟与数值模拟技术和基于三维构造恢复的裂缝预测技术。构造物理模拟技术包括了基于工业CT扫描成像物理模拟技术:可以无损动态监测构造带内部变形演化过程,精确构建变形带三维空间展布形态;基于PIV的有限应变分析的物理模拟技术:可以定量分析变形的演化过程,直观展示应变分布特征,探讨构造应变动态分布规律;基于超重力离心机的构造物理模拟技术:可以模拟不同尺度构造流变过程,探讨岩石圈浅层脆性变形与深层韧性流变之间的动力学机制。     

Spatiotemporal patterns of tropical deforestation and forest degradation in response to the operation of the Tucuruí hydroelectric dam in the Amazon basin

The planned construction of hundreds of hydroelectric dams in the Amazon basin has the potential to provide invaluable ‘clean’ energy resources for aiding in securing future regional energy needs and continued economic growth. These mega-structures, however, directly and indirectly interfere with natural ecosystem dynamics, and can cause noticeable tree loss. To improve our understanding of how hydroelectric dams affect the surrounding spatiotemporal patterns of forest disturbances, this case study integrated remote sensing spectral mixture analysis, GIS proximity analysis and statistical hypothesis testing to extract and evaluate spatially-explicit patterns of deforestation (clearing of entire forest patch) and forest degradation (reduced tree density) in the 80,000 km² neighborhoods of the Brazil's Tucuruí Dam, the first large-scale hydroelectric project in the Amazon region, over a period of 25 years from 1988 to 2013. Results show that the average rates of deforestation were consistent during the first three time periods 1988–1995 (620 km² per year), 1995–2001 (591 km² per year), and 2001–2008 (660 km² per year). However, such rate dramatically fell to half of historical levels after 2008, possibly reflecting the 2008 global economic crisis and enforcement of the Brazilian Law of Environmental Crimes. The rate of forest degradation was relatively stable from 1988 to 2013 and, on average, was 17.8% of the rate of deforestation. Deforestation and forest degradation were found to follow similar spatial patterns across the dam neighborhoods, upstream reaches or downstream reaches at the distances of 5 km–80 km, suggesting that small and large-scale forest disturbances may have been influencing each other in the vicinity of the dam. We further found that the neighborhoods of the Tucuruí Dam and the upstream region experienced similar degrees of canopy loss. Such loss was mainly attributed to the fast expansion of the Tucuruí town, and the intensive logging activities alongside major roads in the upstream reservoir region. In contrast, a significantly lower level of forest disturbance was discovered in the downstream region.     

基于地理视角的智慧城市规划与建设的理论思考

智慧城市建设是推动城镇化发展的重要动力,其建设除了技术支撑之外,还应充分考虑信息技术对城市政府、企业和居民活动及其空间的影响。本文在对国内智慧城市建设现状与问题分析思考的基础上,认为智慧城市的出现是适应当前城市化战略转型、公共服务提升、社区发展和城市问题解决的必然趋势,从多源异构数据整合、信息系统和空间分析平台两个方面梳理智慧城市建设的关键技术,从流动空间以及新的人地关系、时空协调发展等方面提出智慧城市的理论支撑,并进一步明确地理学应对和研究重点。同时,提出基于城市地理研究的智慧城市规划与建设实践的主要方向,包括顶层设计、功能和空间布局、基础设施整合、城乡治理等内容。     

基于智慧交通的可达性与交通出行碳排放——理论与实证

信息与通信技术的发展推动了智慧交通建设,并将进一步提高城市交通可达性和影响居民出行。在全球应对气候变化、减少碳排放的共识背景下,由于"智慧交通—可达性—出行行为(碳排放)"间复杂的影响作用机制,已有的研究难以判断智慧化背景下的城市交通可达性提高将增加抑或减少出行碳排放。如何通过提高城市交通可达性来缓解交通拥堵,保障城市交通运输系统的有效运行,并提高居民出行效率,减少出行碳排放是当前中国智慧交通发展面临的关键问题之一。针对以上科学问题,本文尝试提出基于智慧交通的可达性与交通出行碳排放的理论框架,并以广州为研究案例地,研究了社区居民通勤碳排放特征及其影响机理,社区出行低碳指数格局及其影响因素的空间异质性,以及基于碳排放—位置分配模型的公共中心规划支持系统设计与应用,可为今后的相关研究提供借鉴。     

青藏高原与东亚地区暖季MCSs统计特征的对比分析

利用1996-2010年逐时红外云顶亮温(TBB)数据,对青藏高原(下称高原)和东亚地区暖季(3-9月)中尺度对流系统(MCSs)进行了普查,获得MCSs各项特征数据集;结合CMORPH降水资料对MCSs降水特征进行了分析,在此基础上又对高原和东亚地区的MCSs特征进行了对比分析.结果表明:(1)高原是东亚地区MCSs高频发生区域,高原MCSs的平均发生频次远高于东亚25°N以北地区,是东亚25°N以北地区唯一的MCSs活动高频区.高原腹地是高原地区MCSs发生的高频区,在31°N,88°E附近MCSs的发生频次最高.(2)高原地区 MCSs分布有明显的月际变化,春季主要出现在高原北部,夏季主要出现在高原中东部和南部.高原地区MCSs的月际变化特征与东亚地区基本一致,东亚夏季风是其月际变化的重要影响因子.(3)高原地区MCSs存在明显的单峰型日变化特征,但春、夏季日变化特征略有不同,高原MCSs的日变化较东亚地区更为显著.(4)高原地区MCSs的降水频次为5.6％,降水贡献率为10.1％,最大降水频次为12％,最大降水贡献率为27％;与东亚地区相比,高原的MCSs降水偏小.(5)高原地区的MCSs大多为向东移动且移速缓慢以及短生命史的MβCS,平均生命史为4.6h,平均面积约为11.2×10-1km2,平均移速为31.5 km·h-1,东移的MCSs占59.4％;与整个东亚地区的MCSs相比,高原的MCSs面积和尺度都较小,生命史略短且移速慢,云顶平均TBB和平均最低TBB均偏高.