基于智慧交通的可达性与交通出行碳排放——理论与实证

信息与通信技术的发展推动了智慧交通建设,并将进一步提高城市交通可达性和影响居民出行。在全球应对气候变化、减少碳排放的共识背景下,由于"智慧交通—可达性—出行行为(碳排放)"间复杂的影响作用机制,已有的研究难以判断智慧化背景下的城市交通可达性提高将增加抑或减少出行碳排放。如何通过提高城市交通可达性来缓解交通拥堵,保障城市交通运输系统的有效运行,并提高居民出行效率,减少出行碳排放是当前中国智慧交通发展面临的关键问题之一。针对以上科学问题,本文尝试提出基于智慧交通的可达性与交通出行碳排放的理论框架,并以广州为研究案例地,研究了社区居民通勤碳排放特征及其影响机理,社区出行低碳指数格局及其影响因素的空间异质性,以及基于碳排放—位置分配模型的公共中心规划支持系统设计与应用,可为今后的相关研究提供借鉴。     

Geographic Information Technologies and the History of a Shoreline: The Case of Chapter 91 in New Bedford,Massachusetts

Abstract

This article discusses the use of geographic information technologies to assist researchers in the exploration of historical databases. The case study is a pilot project in which we used geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning systems (GPS) to study the history of the Public Waterfront Act (the “Chapter 91” program), a policy designed to balance private property rights, public interest, and environmental protection in the Massachusetts tidelands. The issues discussed range from the role of GIS in society and its limitations as a representational tool to the ability of current GIS to deal with historical data and to manage temporal attributes.

     

Constraints to effective adoption of innovative livestock production technologies in the Rift Valley (Kenya)

We surveyed small-scale farmers in the Kenyan Rift Valley province (Narok and Nakuru districts) to describe constraints to, and changes in, livestock production and to assess the extent to which farmers have adopted new technologies promoted by extension services. In the arid areas of southern Narok, farmers' main constraints were drought and disease. Farmers in Nakuru district, situated in the fertile highlands of the Rift Valley, were also affected by disease but also lacked markets and capital. Although 83% of the farmers had regular contact with extension services that provided advice on new technologies and livestock production innovations, only about half of the respondents implemented the proposed changes. Many of those who did change (38%) improved pasture/nutrition/manure management and relatively few (16%) improved their animal breeding practices. Results of a multinomial logit model revealed that, apart from the significant differences between the two districts, the nature of the advice and the expected outcomes had the strongest influence on the probability of successfully implementing changes to livestock production. The results further suggest that adoption of new technologies is limited by lack of knowledge, inadequate support and a failure to target local needs and conditions and empower livestock keepers.     

Automatic selection of weights for GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis: site selection of transmission towers as a case study

Transmission line (TL) siting consists of finding suitable land to build transmission towers. This is just one of the numerous complex geographical problems often solved using GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), which is a set of techniques that weight several geographical features to identify suitable locations. This technique is mostly employed using expert knowledge to identify the correct set of weights; thus adding a certain amount of subjectivity to the analysis, meaning that for the same problem if we change the experts involved, we may reach different results.This research is a first attempt to try and solve this issue. We employed a statistical analysis to quantitatively calculate these weights and we tested our method on a case study about transmission line siting in Switzerland. We compared the distances between each sample in our dataset, in this case study these are location of transmission towers, with each geographical feature, e.g. distance from water features. Then we calculate the same distances but for random points, sampled throughout the study area. The reasoning behind this method is that if samples present a distance from a geographic feature statistically different from the random, it means that the feature played an important role in dictating the location of the sample. In this case for instance, high-voltage transmission towers are purposely built as far away as possible from urban areas. Random points are on the contrary by definition sampled without any constraint. Therefore, when comparing the two datasets, we should find that transmission towers have a larger average distance from urban areas than random points. This allows us to determine that this criterion (i.e. distance from urban centers) is important for planning new TL.The results indicate that this method can successfully weight and rank the most important criteria to be considered for an MCDA analysis, in line with weights proposed in the literature. The advantage of the proposed technique is that it completely excludes human factors, thus potentially increasing the social acceptance of the MCDA results.     

Overview of Ecological Restoration Technologies and Evaluation Systems

Ecological degradation is a global problem, and ecological restoration technologies have played and will continue to play an important role in its mitigation. However, the lack of systematic research and evaluations of ecological technologies has thus far affected their effective application in vulnerable ecological regions. This study therefore provides an overview of the main technologies for remediating soil and water erosion, desertification, and rock desertification in China and throughout the world. It addresses key issues and recommends approaches for evaluating ecological restoration technologies. Restoration technology emerged as early as 1800. Over the years such technology has changed from single objective applications to multi-purpose, multi-objective applications employing strategies that take into account ecosystem rehabilitation and integrated ecological and socioeconomic development. Along with this technological evolution, different countries have taken pertinent actions as part of their restoration initiatives. However, key issues remain, including the lack of location-specific restoration technologies and a methodological strategy to assess and prioritize existing technologies. This study proposes a four-level analytical hierarchical framework in conjunction with an indicator system that highlights the establishment and adaptation of associative indicators, while also recommending a three-phase evaluation method (TheMert), targeting TheMert to qualitative (quick and extensive) and quantitative (detailed) evaluations in order to select the most appropriate restoration technologies available. This study can also be used as a basis for understanding the evaluation and prioritization of restoration technologies, while increasing the awareness of decision makers and the public on the role of technology in restoring degraded ecosystems.     

中国虚拟企业的空间分布格局及其影响因素

一个时代造就一种企业组织模式。近年来,信息技术的广泛应用在对传统企业组织产生深刻影响的同时,也催生了一种新型企业空间组织,即虚拟企业。虚拟企业的出现引起了学者们的强烈关注,并逐渐成为各个学科的热点议题。总体来说,虚拟企业的研究主要集中在经济学、管理学和社会学,而地理学的研究还有待进一步深入。在这种背景下,本文结合统计数据、企业访谈和问卷调查等资料和数据,分析虚拟企业的概念和特点,重点剖析中国虚拟企业空间分布格局及其影响因素。研究结果显示,中国虚拟企业分布存在显著的地理集中特征,其空间分布正在加强中国传统大型城市的地位;信息化水平和人口素质是影响虚拟企业空间分布的重要因素。     

全球最优插值客观分析

主要叙述国家气象中心实时运行的全球资料同化系统中的客观分析方案，该方案采用最优插值统计方法，使用所有可以使用的各种类型有不同误差的观测资料和模式的６ｈ预报值，给出数值形式的全球分析值。在两年的业务运行中，为Ｔ４２中期数值预报谱模式提供了较好的初始场。     

青藏高原与东亚地区暖季MCSs统计特征的对比分析

利用1996-2010年逐时红外云顶亮温(TBB)数据,对青藏高原(下称高原)和东亚地区暖季(3-9月)中尺度对流系统(MCSs)进行了普查,获得MCSs各项特征数据集;结合CMORPH降水资料对MCSs降水特征进行了分析,在此基础上又对高原和东亚地区的MCSs特征进行了对比分析.结果表明:(1)高原是东亚地区MCSs高频发生区域,高原MCSs的平均发生频次远高于东亚25°N以北地区,是东亚25°N以北地区唯一的MCSs活动高频区.高原腹地是高原地区MCSs发生的高频区,在31°N,88°E附近MCSs的发生频次最高.(2)高原地区 MCSs分布有明显的月际变化,春季主要出现在高原北部,夏季主要出现在高原中东部和南部.高原地区MCSs的月际变化特征与东亚地区基本一致,东亚夏季风是其月际变化的重要影响因子.(3)高原地区MCSs存在明显的单峰型日变化特征,但春、夏季日变化特征略有不同,高原MCSs的日变化较东亚地区更为显著.(4)高原地区MCSs的降水频次为5.6％,降水贡献率为10.1％,最大降水频次为12％,最大降水贡献率为27％;与东亚地区相比,高原的MCSs降水偏小.(5)高原地区的MCSs大多为向东移动且移速缓慢以及短生命史的MβCS,平均生命史为4.6h,平均面积约为11.2×10-1km2,平均移速为31.5 km·h-1,东移的MCSs占59.4％;与整个东亚地区的MCSs相比,高原的MCSs面积和尺度都较小,生命史略短且移速慢,云顶平均TBB和平均最低TBB均偏高.     

区域Delaunay三角剖分法在全国平均降水量中的应用

介绍了Delaunay三角网的性质及其算法类型;根据1980～2009年全国2200个观测站的降水量资料,将观测点和采集的边界点共同进行普通的Delaunay三角剖分,通过删除边界点及其区域外的三角形以实现区域Delaunay三角剖分,得到了较理想全国陆地的Delaunay三角网;随后对球面上的三角片进行面积计算,在已知站点的经纬度情况下,将大地坐标系转换到空间直角坐标系中,应用平面三角余弦定理获得球面三角内角,从而求得三角片面积,并以面积大小确定各个站点降水量的权重系数,得到全国平均降水量值。对比分析了30年的全国不同时间尺度(日、月、年)平均降水量,Delaunay三角法对应全国平均降水量均值和标准差都明显低于算术平均法,但是两种方法计算的降水量值的相关系数较高;通过Shapiro-Wilk方法进行正态性检验分析,两种计算方法求得的年平均降水量总体服从正态分布;在方差奇性的F检验中,两者的方差具有非奇性特点;使用t检验,在显著性α=0.05时,Delaunay三角剖分法计算的全国平均降水量总体均值偏小。最后,根据欧洲和日本数值模式2009年的降水预报,对于两方法计算结果进行了比较,分析表明在较大区域的平均降水量计算中,较之于传统的算术平均法,基于区域的Delaunay三角剖分法更为合理;区域平均降水量不仅和计算方法有关,还和区域气候特点有密切关系。     

DOES WIND STRESS DEPEND ON SEA-STATE OR NOT? – A STATISTICAL ERROR ANALYSIS OF HEXMAX DATA

There have been several claims, either explicit or by implication, either based on experimental evidence or on theoretical reasoning, that the wind stress is modified by the stage of development of the wind sea. However, the overall evidence is weak, because theories are still incomplete and because it is questionable whether the sea-state effect, which is of the order of 10%, can be separated from experimental noise, which is of the order of 20%. In this paper a rigorous statistical analysis of HEXMAX data is pursued in order to establish the significance of sea-state effects. It appears that the enhanced drag, especially at high winds, which has already been established by previous analyses, cannot be attributed to the effect of young waves. The analysis provides no clues for the actual mechanism, which could be related to breaking or shoaling waves. As the effect of sea-state on wind stress is much smaller than the experimental noise level, it is hard to detect. Nevertheless, HEXMAX seems to contain a wave effect that is at the edge of statistical significance. It is, however, not the wave age itself that influences the drag, but a parameter involving wave height.Because the HEXMAX evidence is only indicative, we conclude that the issue set out in this paper cannot be answered on the basis of the HEXMAX data alone. It is recommended that error analyses are also carried out for other relevant observational data sets and that new measurements with suppressed noise will be taken up.