检验全球数值预报模式的相似度等指标

本文依照泛函形式并考虑了球面经纬网格的特点,定义了用于全球数值模式效果检验的指标:距离、距平相似度和倾向相似度,给出了相应的计算方法,并以全球WRF模式为例,检验了该模式的中期预报效果。所得结论如下:指标距离、距平相似度和倾向相似度物理意义明确,易于理论分析,考虑了球面经纬网格的特点,检验准确度高,具有普适性,能方便应用于球面经纬网格输出的数值模式检验。指标距离、距平相似度的检验结果分别与传统检验指标均方根误差、距平相关系数相一致,该指标还可直接用于向量场(如风场)的整体检验。本文的全球WRF模式所做的检验表明,对本文个例,该模式的全球500 hPa中期天气形势预报在第7 d及之内皆可用,5 d及之内预报效果更佳。     

中国履行《蒙特利尔议定书(基加利修正案)》减排三氟甲烷的对策分析

2016年10月制定的《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书（基加利修正案）》将三氟甲烷（HFC-23）纳入了其附件F第二类管控物质名单,并要求缔约国自2020年1月1日起以缔约方核准的技术对HFC-23进行销毁。伴随中国二氟一氯甲烷（HCFC-22）原料用途需求增长,其副产物HFC-23的产生量呈上升趋势,尽管HCFC-22生产工艺不断优化,HFC-23的副产率逐步下降,预测2050年HFC-23产生量将达到2.47万t（或365.56 Mt CO₂-eq),2020—2050年HFC-23累计产生量约56.3万t,折合约8332.40 Mt CO₂-eq。截至2015年,通过清洁发展机制以及国家发展和改革委员会减排专项的资助,中国以焚烧分解技术销毁HFC-23累计54585 t,为全球温室气体减排做出了重要贡献,但这一减排也花费了巨额资金投资焚烧设备和支付焚烧运行费用,提高了企业的生产成本、浪费了氟资源。研究显示,HFC-23资源化利用技术路线是可行的且中国相关技术专利正在逐步增加,鼓励和推进HFC-23资源化利用技术开发与应用是消除HFC-23排放可行的技术途径,也是未来中国加入并履行《基加利修正案》关键的技术路线选择。     

Interdecadal variation of precipitation days in August in the Korean Peninsula

The present study examines a climate regime shift in the time series of the number of rainy days during August in the Korean Peninsula. The statistical change-point analysis indicates that a significant shift occurred in the time series around 1998, providing a rationale to divide it into two parts: 1975–1997 for the shorter rainy-day period and 1998–2012 for the longer rainy-day period. To examine the cause of recent rapid increases in the number of days with precipitation in August in the Korean Peninsula, differences in the averages of large-scale environments between the 1998–2012 period and the 1975–1997 period were analyzed.The differences in stream flows showed that anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the East Asian continent while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in the western North Pacific at all layers of the troposphere. The anomalous anticyclones reinforced in the western North Pacific were associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) developed a little more toward the Korean Peninsula recently. Consequently, the Korean Peninsula has been affected by anomalous south westerlies that supplied warm and humid airs from low tropical regions to the Korean Peninsula. The vertical thermal instability (warm anomaly at lower-level and cold anomaly at middle and upper-level) developed near the Korean Peninsula. In addition, upper tropospheric jets were reinforced further recently near the Korean Peninsula to provide good environments for development of upward flows. The frequency of TCs that affect the Korean Peninsula in August also increased rapidly since 1998.     

类星体光度函数

对前人在类星体光度函数研究中的工作作了详细的介绍。在前人工作的基础上,提出两个新的研究方法和一个新的统计方法。第一为分类研究法。将类星体分作若干子类,每一子类的光度演化形式可以通过相关分析求出,而数密度则可由简单计数求得。第二为平均星等法,定义平均星等Ｍ。研究表明,对于纯密度演化模型,Ｍ与红移ｚ无关;而对于纯光度演化模型,Ｍ与光度演化形式（Ｍｚ－Ｍ）成线性关系。提出的新的统计方法为ｎ／ｎｍａｘ检验法,它是传统的Ｖ／Ｖｍａｘ和Ｖ′／Ｖ′ｍａｘ检验法的推广。与传统方法不同,它能适用于任何光度函数模型。若所采用的光度函数正确,则样品的ｎ／ｎｍａｘ值应均匀分布于数域［０,１］     

阿拉善左旗雷暴活动特征分析

利用阿拉善左旗气象局1971—2000年30年的雷暴资料,对阿拉善左旗雷暴的年、月、日变化及产生和消失的方位进行了统计分析,得到了阿拉善左旗雷暴的变化规律。     

The statistics of particle velocities and accelerations under waves with directional spread

The statistics of the horizontal component of the water particle velocity vector under random waves are considered. A spread in the directions of travel of the component wave trains does not affect the rms value of the modulus r but it affects the shape of its probability distribution in such a way that the pr3bability of extreme values is reduced. For small and moderate directional spreads the modulus for a given probability of exceedance is reduced by a factor which tends to F_s as the probability of exceedance tends to zero, where F_s is the spread factor (which is typically 0.9 in temperate storms). However, the convergence on this asymptote is not complete for probabilities of engineering importance, particularly for wide directional spreads. The standard deviation of the probability distribution of the direction of the vector is reduced roughly in inverse proportion to r. The same conclusions apply to particle accelerations.     

Biogeographic characterization of Mediterranean and Black Seas faunal provinces using GIS procedures

To identify Mediterranean and Black Seas areas where similar marine faunal provinces occur, geographical distribution maps of 536 species of actual or potential interest to fisheries have been digitized, using GIS software, and three different ecological areas have been delimited by depth, separated by the 200 and 1000 m isobaths. Information on the species ranges was taken mainly from the maps and the texts of the FAO Species Identification Sheets covering the region, and complemented by other sources when necessary. All the distribution maps have then been overlaid by a grid of points at regular intervals every half degree of latitude and longitude. This allowed creation of a matrix of presence or absence of the species at each point from which species richness maps have been generated. The species richness in the Mediterranean proper shows the same negative gradient eastwards that has been observed for nutrients, while the low number of species in the Black Sea could be linked to the fragility and recent fast degradation of this ecosystem. Through the calculation of 65 dissimilarity indices from 50 contiguous points along the coastline and the species richness maps, the region has been divided into nine faunal provinces. These faunal provinces have then been compared with the ten Mediterranean and Black Seas divisions used by the GFCM for statistical purposes, revealing few differences between the two classifications. The definition of faunal provinces in a region when deciding upon Natural Management Areas, and the appropriate GIS approach to be followed, are discussed.     

山东招远界河金矿床地球化学元素统计分析特征研究

通过对地化元素量值的统计分析可以推测地化元素在成矿过程中的演化特征,进而为预测找矿提供有用的深层次信息。本文通过有关元素的聚类分析、因子分析研究揭示界河矿区内Ａｕ与Ｂｉ以外的其他元素基本不具相关性、Ａｕ的成矿经历了长期、多次的地质演化过程,揭示了矿区内仅Ａｕ独立成矿的内在原因。文中据元素的共生组合及相关性特征认为矿区内Ｂｉ可作为找金的近程指示元素,Ａｓ可作为找金的远程指示元素。     

精密补偿器水准仪受地球磁场影响的检测统计分析

根据精密补偿器水准仪受地球磁场影响的检测统计,证实了磁场对不同型号的补偿器水准仪有不同程度的影响。分析了受磁影响的主要原因,并提出防磁措施及应注意的一些问题。     

体应变地震波最大振幅与地震震级和震中距的统计关系探讨

Based on the body strain record of Tiantanghe station from 2008 to 2014,we make a statistical analysis of the relationship between the maximum amplitude of the body strain record and the surface-wave magnitude,epicenter distance of the earthquakes,which occurred in the Chinese mainland and its surrounding areas with MS≥6. 0 and the rest of the world with MS≥7. 0. According to statistical results,we propose a statistical formula between the surface-wave magnitude of earthquake and the maximum amplitude of the body strain record,the epicenter distance: M_S~*= 0. 37 ln A_max+ 0. 57 ln D + 0. 07. We can also derive a theoretical estimation formula for the maximum amplitude: A_max=e~(2. 7(M_S~*-0. 07))D~(-1. 54). This demonstrates that the maximum amplitude of the body strain record increases exponentially with the increase of the surface-wave magnitude, and decreases with the increase of the epicenter distance,and shows a negative correlation with their product. We further discuss the necessity of adding instruments with high frequency sampling to earthquake monitoring, and dicuss the prospects for precise earthquake prediction in future.