The climate change mitigation impacts of active travel: Evidence from a longitudinal panel study in seven European cities

Active travel (walking or cycling for transport) is considered the most sustainable and low carbon form of getting from A to B. Yet the net effects of changes in active travel on changes in mobility-related CO₂ emissions are complex and under-researched. Here we collected longitudinal data on daily travel behavior, journey purpose, as well as personal and geospatial characteristics in seven European cities and derived mobility-related lifecycle CO₂ emissions over time and space. Statistical modelling of longitudinal panel (n = 1849) data was performed to assess how changes in active travel, the ‘main mode’ of daily travel, and cycling frequency influenced changes in mobility-related lifecycle CO₂ emissions.We found that changes in active travel have significant lifecycle carbon emissions benefits, even in European urban contexts with already high walking and cycling shares. An increase in cycling or walking consistently and independently decreased mobility-related lifecycle CO₂ emissions, suggesting that active travel substituted for motorized travel – i.e. the increase was not just additional (induced) travel over and above motorized travel. To illustrate this, an average person cycling 1 trip/day more and driving 1 trip/day less for 200 days a year would decrease mobility-related lifecycle CO₂ emissions by about 0.5 tonnes over a year, representing a substantial share of average per capita CO₂ emissions from transport. The largest benefits from shifts from car to active travel were for business purposes, followed by social and recreational trips, and commuting to work or place of education. Changes to commuting emissions were more pronounced for those who were younger, lived closer to work and further to a public transport station.Even if not all car trips could be substituted by active travel the potential for decreasing emissions is considerable and significant. The study gives policy and practice the empirical evidence needed to assess climate change mitigation impacts of urban transport measures and interventions aimed at mode shift to more sustainable modes of transport. Investing in and promoting active travel whilst ‘demoting’ private car ownership and use should be a cornerstone of strategies to meet ‘net zero’ carbon targets, particularly in urban areas, while also reducing inequalities and improving public health and quality of urban life in a post-COVID-19 world.     

六盘水市近6a马铃薯全生育期的降水特征及其补充灌溉分析

选取贵州西部六枝特区郎节坝试验区、钟山区大地试验区、水城县前进试验区和盘县坡上试验区共4个不同海拔马铃薯种植区连续6 a(2006—2011年)春薯主要大田生长期(2—9月)逐日降水的观测资料和春薯产量资料,利用降水产量积分回归函数,分析降水变化对春薯产量的影响。结果表明,贵州西部山区降水存在时空分布不均状况,但降水总体呈现出随着海拔高度的升高而增多趋势,同时找出了影响春薯产量不稳定的主要原因。不同区域春薯生长发育过程中的最佳补充灌溉时期不同:郎节坝试验区在播种期到开花期需补充灌溉,大地试验区应分别在播种期和现蕾期到开花期补充灌溉,前进试验区在现蕾期到开花期需补充灌溉,坡上试验区应在开花的始期至盛期补充灌溉。科学、合理的调控措施,有利于提高春薯的产量和质量。     

A PREDICTION SCHEME FOR THE PRECIPITATION OF SPR BASED ON THE DATA MINING ALGORITHM AND CIRCULATION ANALYSIS

Based on the 74 circulation indexes provided by National Climate Center of China (hereinafter referred to as NCC) and the 24 indexes compiled by NOAA, the study used the C4.5 algorithm in data mining to establish a decision tree prediction model to predict whether the Spring Persistent Rains (hereinafter referred to as SPR) of 55 years (from 1961 to 2015) is more than the normal, and obtained 5 rules to determine whether the SPR is more than the normal. The accuracy rate of the test set, namely “whether the SPR is more than the normal”, is 98.18%. After evaluating the model by conducting ten 10-fold cross validations to take the average value, the test accuracy rate gained is 84%. There are differences between the three types of years with a SPR more than the normal when it comes to intensity and distribution. In spring, they have respective anomalous 850hPa monthly mean wind fields and water-vapor flux distribution, and 700hPa forms the zone where the vertical speed is anomalously negative. As indicated by the results, the SPR prediction model based on the C4.5 algorithm has a high prediction accuracy rate, the model is reasonably and effectively constructed, and the decision rules take comprehensive factors into consideration. The anomalous rainfall and circulation distribution characteristics obtained based on the decision classification results provide new ideas and methods for the climatic prediction of SPR.     

一次鄂北春季降雪过程分析和数值模拟

采用非静力中尺度模式WRF,对2010年4月中旬鄂北襄樊出现的一次罕见春季降雪过程的天气系统和降雪云微物理量的三维分布特征进行了模拟分析。结果表明,该模式较好地模拟了降雪中心和主要的固体降水形态。进一步分析表明,西北干冷空气南下造成了环境降温和长江中游槽线切变区激发对流的发展,在对流层中层直接形成固态降水物质,低层高湿和充足的水汽输送是这次降雪过程形成的重要因素。     

Fractured-karst spring-flow protections: a case study in Jinan, China

Jinan Springs are an important historical heritage in China and have been well known for hundreds of years. Over-abstraction of groundwater in the Jinan area has seriously endangered the hydrological system of the springs, which have stopped flowing for significant periods of time in recent years. A three-dimensional finite-element model programmed primarily at the Hefei University of Technology has been developed to simulate groundwater level change in the large fractured-karst aquifer system in the Jinan Springs field. Various spring protection plans have been explored and their effects on the water table analyzed and compared. It was found that the present rate of groundwater withdrawal from the fractured-karst system in this area was inappropriate for spring protection. The simulated results suggest that decreasing the rate of groundwater pumping from 6.9×10⁵ to 2.7×10⁵ m³/day is needed to protect spring flows. Additional water resource requirements in that area may be met by use of surface water and recycled waste water.     

Karst flash flooding in a Mediterranean karst, the example of Fontaine de Nîmes

Karst flash flooding, identified as one of the hazards in karst terrains, is directly linked to the structure and hydraulic properties of karst aquifers. Due to the characteristics of flow within karst aquifers, characterized by a dual flow – diffuse flow within fissured limestone and conduit flow within karst conduits networks – flash flooding may be important in volume and dynamics. Such phenomenon may cause serious damages including loss of lives, as it occurred on 3rd October 1988 in Nîmes (Gard, South France). Flash floods there have been considered to be the result of very intensive rainfall events conjugated to runoff due to the geomorphologic context of the city located down hill. However, preliminary results of recent studies of the hydrologic behaviour of groundwater and surface water for a specific event (September 2005) show that the karst plays an important role in the flood genesis. The main characteristics of the Nîmes karst system leading to karst flash flooding are presented in this paper. A methodology comprising modelling of the karst system allowed proposing simple warning thresholds for various part of the karst (water level threshold for the karst conduits and cumulative rainfall threshold for the overflowing fissured karst). These thresholds can be included in the flash flood warning system of the Nîmes city.     

济南泉域地下水污染现状及对策研究

随着经济的快速发展和工业化、城市化进程的不断加快和人口的剧加,人类活动产生的污染物对济南市局部地下水造成了一定的污染。该文分析论述了济南市泉域的水文地质条件,地下水污染现状及综合评价,提出了防治地下水污染的措施。     

济南玉符河重点渗漏带岩溶地下水补给特征与保护

玉符河是济南趵突泉域的重点渗漏带之一,是天然河道型渗漏带,其流域面积较大,具有较好来水条件,且卧虎山水库与锦绣城水库水系联通工程使其具备调水补源的条件,能通过增加外调补水增加重点渗漏带的补水能力。文章根据渗漏补给功能特征,采用RS、GPS、GS、物探测量、水文地质试验等技术手段,利用岩性、构造、地形、渗透性、植被覆盖度五大矢量数据的叠加分析方法,以主河道为中心划定玉符河重点渗漏带的保护范围,并利用变化参数法计算出玉符河重点渗漏带多年平均天然地下水补给量约为1 290万m³,其是岩溶地下水的重要补给来源。玉符河重点渗漏带的补水效果主要是通过提升西郊区域岩溶地下水水位,阻止趵突泉南部山区地下水向北径流过程中的向西分流,使地下水集中向泉水出露区汇聚,从而增大泉水的出流量。在保护渗漏带自然入渗功能的前提下,可充分挖掘玉符河重点渗漏带的补水功能,通过调水补源、河道生态修复、入河污染控制等措施,增大玉符河重点渗漏带的渗漏补给量。     

基于地下水流场和含水介质分析的敦煌月牙泉成因研究

在分析月牙泉多年动态变化趋势的基础上,依据最新水文地质勘探资料和编绘的月牙泉周围年丰水期、枯水期地下水等水位线图,从地下水流场和含水介质的角度分析研究了月牙泉形成原因。月牙泉上游地下水基本呈自西南向东北径流,在地势低洼的沙漠丘间地带出露形成月牙泉;地下水补给来源为上游党河右岸黑山咀子东侧浅层地下潜水的侧向径流,黑山咀子至月牙泉之间的地下水水力坡度在丰水期为4. 813‰,枯水期为 4. 622‰;月牙泉泉水与周边地下水是统一的水力系统;月牙泉附近含水层是党河冲洪积层的连续的过渡关系,泉水出露形成是含水层与特殊地形地貌结合的产物。     

Chemical and isotopic characteristics and origin of spring waters in the Lanping–Simao Basin,Yunnan, Southwestern China

The chemical and isotopic characteristics (oxygen, hydrogen, and strontium) of spring waters and isotopic compositions of helium (He) and neon (Ne) in gases escaping from spring waters in the Lanping–Simao Basin are studied. A total of twenty-one spring water samples (twelve hot springs, four cold springs, and five saline springs) and eleven gas samples were collected from the study area, including one spring and one gas sample from northern Laos. It is found that saline spring waters in the study area are of chloride type, cold spring waters are of carbonate type or sulfate type, and hot spring waters are of various types. High total dissolved solids levels in saline springs are significantly related to Upper Cretaceous–Paleocene salt-bearing strata. On the basis of hydrochemical geothermometry, the reservoir temperatures (T_r) for hot springs, cold springs, and saline springs are 65.5–144.1, 37.8–64.4, and 65.1–109.0 °C, respectively, and the circulation depths of saline springs are much larger than those of hot and cold springs. The oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions of springs in the Lanping–Simao Basin and northern Laos are primarily controlled by meteoric waters with obvious latitude and altitude effects, and are also influenced by δ¹⁸O exchange to some extent. Most Sr²⁺ in spring waters of the study area is derived from varied sources (carbonate, evaporite, and silicate mineral dissolution), and the Sr isotopic compositions are greatly influenced by volcanic rocks. Wide distribution of crust-derived He in the Lanping–Simao Basin and northern Laos reveal that faults in these areas may not descend to the upper mantle. It is concluded that water circulation in the study area may be limited above the upper mantle, while saline springs may originate from the Upper Cretaceous–Paleocene evaporites. Hydrochemical characteristics demonstrate affinities among the Lanping–Simao Basin, northern Laos, and Yanjing, eastern Tibet, while disaffinities are observed between these areas and Tengchong on the basis of the hydrochemical characteristics and noble gas isotopic compositions.