Econometric analysis to differentiate effects of various ship safety inspections

This article provides a refined technique to measure and interpret variables associated with the quality of an inspection—be it port state control or vetting inspections towards the probability of a very serious, serious or less serious casualty. It concentrates on filtering out the effect of variables such as detention, the port state control regime that inspected the vessel, time in-between inspections, deficiencies found during an inspection and the effect of vetting inspections. The consensus amongst policy makers in the shipping industry is that data cannot be combined to target vessels. While this article does demonstrate that the decrease in the probability of casualty is stronger for the South American Region, the Indian Ocean Region and Australia versus North Europe, North America or the Caribbean, it also demonstrates that the data can be combined to target vessels for inspections. Since the time in-between inspections and detention is mostly not significant towards decreasing the probability of casualty, these results reflect the lack of coordination amongst port state control regimes and industry inspections. Due to this lack of coordination and trust, a ship might be inspected in several regimes during a relative short time period where the benefit of an inspection can be easily saturated. Our recommendation on direct policy implication is to promote the harmonization of inspection databases across port state control regimes, preferably with the coordination of the development of the Global Integrated Ship Information System (GISIS) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to review the policy of a release of a vessel from detention and to increase cooperation amongst regimes with respect to the follow up of the rectification of deficiencies.     

Econometric analysis of the ship demolition market

The topic of ship recycling has obtained considerable attention during the last two decades for a variety of reasons with the likelihood of the adoption of a new international convention under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This study applies econometric modeling to a unique data set to provide insight into the dynamics of the ship recycling market. The data set contains information on 51,112 ships over 100 gt and includes 748,621 events over a period of 29 years. The analysis confirms a negative relationship of earnings and a positive relationship of scrap prices for all locations while Bangladesh seems to be more sensitive to changes in earnings than the other locations and more likely demolishes larger and older vessels. The results for flag and ownership vary across scrapping locations with Malta and Cyprus indicating potential importance from a registry perspective. The overall safety profile of a vessel seems to be less important towards the probability of a ship being scrapped. Possible implementation of the convention at EU level will mostly likely affect Turkey while non-ratification of one of the major flags will most likely affect China or Bangladesh.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Skeletal linear extension rates of the foliose scleractinian coral Merulina ampliata (Ellis & Solander, 1786) in a turbid environment

Skeletal linear extension rates of a foliaceous, IndoPacific, skiophilous, heterotrophic, scleractinian Merulina ampliata (Ellis & Solander 1786) were obtained along a sediment/nutrient load gradient at the southern islands of Singapore. Measurements were made during November 1999– November 2000 using the alizarin red‐S staining technique. Suspended particulate matter concentration (r²_adj = 0.76), turbidity (r²_adj = 0.59), the organic content of suspended sediments (r² = 0.50), and nitrite‐nitrate concentration (r²_adj = 0.50) were significant predictors of the skeletal linear extension rate of M. ampliata. Maximum linear extension growth rates of M. ampliata (mean ± SD: 1.43 ± 0.67–3.26 ± 0.59 cm·year^?1) were comparable to 15‐year‐old accounts at the same research sites, indicating adaptation to low‐light, high‐sediment waters.     

台风对海洋叶绿素a浓度影响的定量遥感初探

研究台风对海洋水色环境的影响,是目前海洋遥感技术又一应用领域。由于台风期间天气恶劣,遥感资料较少,国际上主要针对个别典型台风,研究其对海表温度、海洋叶绿素a浓度及初级生产力的影响,很少通过遥感资料系统地对这一影响进行定量分析和建模。自2000到2007年,过境中国近海以及西北太平洋海域台风近百次,作者通过系统地分析这期间MODIS,SeaWiFS的3A级叶绿素a浓度数据,结果发现:(1)台风促进了相应海域叶绿素a浓度的大幅增长,总体上平均增长约1.426倍,个别区域在5倍以上,同时,该增长一般延后3~6d,在7~10d后恢复到原来的水平;(2)进一步对这些数据进行一元统计线性回归,发现叶绿素a浓度增长比(R_chl-a)与台风影响因子(Tsub>w)满足如下关系:R_chl-a=0.0012Tsub>w+1.017,其相关系数达0.8;(3)台风期间叶绿素a浓度与无台风时叶绿素a浓度之间有很强的线性关系,其关系满足:C_chl-a=1.2367C_0chl-a+0.0636,且相关系数高达0.98。这一初步研究结果对进一步通过遥感手段深入研究台风对海洋水色环境的影响有借鉴意义。     

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反射光谱技术:研究南极企鹅古生态演化的一种新方法

为探求快速、廉价、无损和同步的光谱技术在南极生态环境研究中的可能性,本文利用南极阿德雷岛的四根企鹅粪土沉积柱样品的反射光谱,通过逐步多元线性回归和主成分回归两种数学运算方法,建立了反射光谱数据与企鹅粪九种标型元素浓度之间的关系,并探讨了南极企鹅粪土沉积物光谱数据的古生态意义。结果表明:南极粪土沉积样品反射率光谱与企鹅粪九种标型元素(P、Ca、Cu、F、Ba、S、Zn、Sr、Se)含量之间存在良好的相关性,预测值与实测值之间的相关系数R都达到了0.9以上,在深度剖面上预测浓度与实测浓度具有非常一致的变化趋势;南极粪土沉积物光谱数据包含有明确的古生态变化信息,可利用主成分分析快速恢复历史时期企鹅数量演化过程。本研究结果为在偏远的南极地区开展古生态环境研究提供了一种新的快捷方法和技术途径。     

Local and landscape effects on spatial patterns of mangrove forest during wetter and drier periods: Moreton Bay,Southeast Queensland,Australia

Land use/cover and mangrove spatial changes were assessed for ten sites and their sub-catchments in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Two time periods were involved: 1972–1990, a period of relatively high rainfall, and 1990–2004, which was significantly drier. Aerial photographs and Landsat satellite imagery were used to map the inter-tidal wetlands and classify the land use/cover in the sub-catchments. A Maximum Likelihood Classification was used to map three types of land cover: agriculture, built-up and plantation forest. Mangroves (mainly Avicennia marina) were the focus as they have been recorded over recent decades encroaching into salt marsh. The Mangrove-Salt marsh Interface (MSI) Index was developed to quantify the relative opportunity for mangroves to expand into salt marshes, based on the shared boundary between them. The index showed a consistent relationship with mangrove expansion and change. To address problems of high dimensionality and multi-collinearity of predictor variables, a Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) model was used. A key finding of this research was that the contribution of environmental variables to spatial changes in the mangroves was altered following a reduction in rainfall. For example, agriculture had more influence on mangrove expansion and change during the wet period than during the dry period.     

长期天气预报中有关预报因子的若干探讨

目前行之有效的长期天气预报方法都是数理统计方法。本文以江淮流域夏季旱涝的长期预报为例，对有关预报因子的几个问题作了探索。挑选有实际天气学意义、各自独立、单相关系数较高的物理因子作预报因子，更有利于提高预报准确率，预报因子的时间尺度以月、季平均值最为适宜，而以三个旬滑动平均值的效果最佳，建立各种预报量的初选、精选因子库，更适用于计算机技术制作长期预报。