Spatial patterns of adolescent drug use

Adolescent drug use is individually and socially harmful in terms of disrupting adolescent development and social cohesion. Prior research has identified populations at risk and risk factors for adolescent drug use. This research sought to contextualize adolescent drug use by examining this behavior from a geographic perspective. The specific objectives were to identify patterns, local clusters and excess spatial risk for 5-digit zip codes within the 5-county Cincinnati, Ohio region. Adolescents (n = 57,241) were recruited within local schools by the Coalition for a Drug-free Greater Cincinnati. Results of this research show spatial clusters for perceived safety of marijuana; peer approval of alcohol, tobacco and marijuana; and age of onset for other drugs. The location and nature of these clusters are discussed and displayed in-text. Further, zip codes that were in excess risk compared to the 5-county region were identified. The utility of this research is two-fold: (1) It identifies the geographic variability in adolescent drug use and correlated factors of use, and (2) It provides a methodological framework for future research in spatial epidemiology of drug use.     

A spatio-temporal analysis of academic performance at the Basic Education Certificate Examination in Ghana

Over the last decade, Ghana has more than tripled investment in its basic education system. Consequently, the country has made huge educational gains, primarily in providing universal access to basic education. However, many stakeholders are worried that academic performance is lagging because of disproportional attention to accessing basic education. Discussion of these concerns is hampered by ongoing disagreement about the true trajectory of academic performance at the basic education level and the widespread nature of students' lagging academic performance. In part, this disagreement stems from the failure of empirical studies to comprehensively examine trends in academic performance standards at the basic education level by concurrently considering a geographical and longitudinal perspective. Thus, this study examines the spatio-temporal trends of academic performance at the junior high school level since 2009 by using multilevel growth curve modeling, spatial statistics, and district-level longitudinal data. Results reveal 3 statistically distinct trajectories of academic performance: erratic, accelerating, and decelerating changes. Results also show that rural–urban gaps explain 31% of the performance trajectories, a trend which is expected to persist in the long term. In addition, we find extreme variations in academic performance within rural areas. Given the varying trajectories and geographical variability in academic performance, we suggest a localized approach to addressing challenges of low academic achievement at the basic education level in Ghana.     

福建港口体系结构研究

阐述了福建港湾自然条件和港口开发现状,采用赫希曼-赫芬达尔指数分析近20年来港口体系空间结构的动态演变规律,结果表明,福建港口体系空间结构演变总趋势呈分散化。这说明了港口间的竞争大于合作,职能结构趋同,因而形成合理分工与协作的福建港口群是当务之急。鉴于此,运用模糊聚类、货种区位商等分析技术,对其体系内的港口等级层次、职能结构的基本特征进行探讨,并在此基础上提出了各港口职能分工的发展方向。     

帕隆藏布河流纵剖面演化的最小功模式

河流地貌最小功原理表明河流纵误时面形态将向力示使流速增大的方向演化，据此推导出矩形流域全程流速的平均值（u^-）与河流纵误时面形态指数（N）的关系式：u^∝-f(N)={1/2-1/[(N 1)(N 2)]}^1/2，f(N)被称为流速函数。这一最小功模式表明河流纵剖面演化方向是N由小变大。以西藏帕隆藏布中上游流域系统、干流全程及Ⅰ级阶地为例，由最小功模式计算的全程流速均值与实测值相吻合，从而检验了上述最小功原理和数学模式。     

Weights of Evidence Modeling of Mineral Potential: A Case Study Using Small Number of Prospects,Abra, Philippines

Weights of evidence (WofE) modeling usually is applied to map mineral potential in areas with large number of deposits/prospects. In this paper, WofE modeling is applied to a case study area measuring about 920 km² with 12 known porphyry copper prospects. A pixel size of 100 m × 100 m was used in the spatial data analyses to represent in a raster-based GIS lateral extents of prospects and of geological features considered as spatial evidence. Predictor maps were created based on (a) estimates of studentized values of positive spatial association between prospects and spatial evidence; (b) proportion of number of prospects in zones where spatial evidence is present; and (c) geological interpretations of positive spatial association between prospects and spatial evidence. Uncertainty because of missing geochemical evidence is shown to have an influence on tests of assumption of conditional independence (CI) among predictor maps with respect to prospects. For the final predictive model, assumption of CI is rejected based on omnibus test but is accepted based on a new omnibus test. The final predictive model, which delineates 30% of study area as zones with potential for porphyry copper, has 83% success rate and 73% prediction rate. The results demonstrate plausibility of WofE modeling of mineral potential in large areas with small number of mineral prospects.     

区域Delaunay三角剖分法在全国平均降水量中的应用

介绍了Delaunay三角网的性质及其算法类型;根据1980～2009年全国2200个观测站的降水量资料,将观测点和采集的边界点共同进行普通的Delaunay三角剖分,通过删除边界点及其区域外的三角形以实现区域Delaunay三角剖分,得到了较理想全国陆地的Delaunay三角网;随后对球面上的三角片进行面积计算,在已知站点的经纬度情况下,将大地坐标系转换到空间直角坐标系中,应用平面三角余弦定理获得球面三角内角,从而求得三角片面积,并以面积大小确定各个站点降水量的权重系数,得到全国平均降水量值。对比分析了30年的全国不同时间尺度(日、月、年)平均降水量,Delaunay三角法对应全国平均降水量均值和标准差都明显低于算术平均法,但是两种方法计算的降水量值的相关系数较高;通过Shapiro-Wilk方法进行正态性检验分析,两种计算方法求得的年平均降水量总体服从正态分布;在方差奇性的F检验中,两者的方差具有非奇性特点;使用t检验,在显著性α=0.05时,Delaunay三角剖分法计算的全国平均降水量总体均值偏小。最后,根据欧洲和日本数值模式2009年的降水预报,对于两方法计算结果进行了比较,分析表明在较大区域的平均降水量计算中,较之于传统的算术平均法,基于区域的Delaunay三角剖分法更为合理;区域平均降水量不仅和计算方法有关,还和区域气候特点有密切关系。     

和田河夏季流量对区域0℃层高度变化的响应

利用和田市气象站的0℃层高度,和田河上游乌鲁瓦提和同古孜洛克水文站的实测流量资料,以及NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa月平均温度资料,分析了和田河夏季流量的变化、同期流域内0℃层高度情况以及500 hPa温度的特征。结果显示：1961-2004年,和田河夏季流量、和田站0℃层高度均呈不显著的线性下降趋势,在1979年分别出现了由丰到枯、由高到低的突变。和田河夏季流量典型偏丰、偏枯年同期500 hPa温度距平场有显著差异。在年代际和年际尺度上,和田河夏季流量对流域内0℃层高度变化都有明显的响应。     

青藏高原近50年来气温的年代际变化

根据青藏高原及周边地区一百多个气象台站的月平均气温资料,利用统计方法,分析了近50年来气温的年代际变化。结果表明：整个高原地区温度变化可分为6个不同的区域。在时间演变上可划分出相对高温时段(1963年以前)、相对低温时段(1963—1987年)和另一个相对高温时段(1987年以后)。还从天文因素、地球系统各圈层及气候系统内各因子相互作用和相互制约出发,探讨了引起高原气候变化的可能原因。     

移动性热岛边界层特征的数值研究

用二维非静力完全弹性的中－γ尺度数值模式模拟了移动性热岛的大气边界层特征。试验中，热岛移速取为４ｍ·ｓ＾－１，热岛强度取△θｇ＝６０Ｋ和３０Ｋ两种。△θｇ＝６０Ｋ时，在热岛后方出现了强烈的垂直运动并形成了水平尺度为３－５ｋｍ的局地环流，最大上升速度１００ｃｍ·ｓ＾－１，出现在低层３００－４００ｍ高度；△θｇ＝３０Ｋ时，移动热岛的边界效应比前大为减弱，且不再出现闭合的局地环流。     

基于T213集合预报的延伸期产品释用方法及初步试验

基于T213集合预报系统2008年1月中国及附近区域500 hPa高度和850 hPa温度的1~15 d预报资料,构建延伸期产品释用方法,通过对逐日11~15 d预报资料做集合平均和后向衰减权重系数滑动平均,进而得到延伸期(11~15 d)候平均和候距平预报,并对预报效果进行检验,结果表明:对11~15 d预报场做集合平均和后向衰减权重系数滑动平均均能降低预报误差,改善整体预报效果。由此得到的500 hPa高度场和850 hPa温度场11~1 5 d候平均预报误差与逐日控制预报第5d的水平相当,候距平相关系数均接近0.6,整体而言效果较好,具备一定的应用价值。500 hPa高度场和850 hPa温度场11~15 d候距平预报在中国大陆地区位相准确率均较高,东南沿海和东北部分地区稍差,且850 hPa温度场的位相准确率整体高于500 hPa高度场。候距平预报对延伸期(11~15 d)的大范围持续性异常距平具有较强的捕捉能力,对异常距平出现的范围和分布、强距平中心的位置的预报均较好,但强度整体偏弱。