山西运城市森林火险等级预报系统

利用有关气象及森林火灾资料，分析了林林火灾的发生与气象条件、火条件及森林含水率的关系，计算了森林火险综合预报指标，建立了以预报方程，经试用效果良好。     

On Extending The Flux-Profile Similarity Theory To Include Quasi-Homogeneous Conditions In The Marine Atmospheric Surface Layer

In order to apply Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to estimatethe profiles of mean quantities and surface fluxes from bulk meteorological parameters, the assumptions of homogeneityand stationarity must be valid. Unfortunately, in coastal zones as well as many other regions of interest, theseassumptions are often violated. In this paper, an extension to the theory is presented that considers systematically varyingstate variables. Along-wind variations of windspeed, atmospheric stratification, and roughness are examined with respectto their relative importance to momentum flux divergence, and the drag coefficient is shown to be systematicallylower in coastal zones. For profiles of scalars, an analysis of the set of quasi-homogeneous terms is only speculated,and the relative importance for the terms will strongly depend on which scalar is of interest.     

基于广义Kопытов模型及乙型水驱曲线的综合预测法

将广义Kопытов预测模型和乙型水驱曲线方法有机的结合起来，得到了油田开发中后期——递减时期的一种预测水驱开发油田的含水率、产油量、产水量及其相应的累积产量随开发时间变化的方法，此方法克服了在水驱油田预测开发指标中二者所存在的局限性。     

Spatial variation of seismic motion induced by propagation of body waves

Spatial variation of earthquake ground motion is an important phenomenon that cannot be ignored in the design and safety of strategic structures. Several models have been developed to describe this variation using statistical, mathematical or physical approaches. The latter approach is not specific to an event. A recent contribution, which uses such an approach and called complete stochastic deamplification approach (CSDA), was developed [1]. The aim of this paper is to analyze the spatial variation of earthquake motion induced by the propagation of body waves using the CSDA. Coherency functions are evaluated for the cases of SH–SV–P waves propagating through stratified soil. Results obtained show that the variation of the coherency function is not the same for vertical and horizontal components and that the motion is more coherent at depth than at the free surface. In fact, we found that the rate of decrease with frequency and distance is not the same if P–SV waves propagate through stratified soil.     

Bedrock structure in Adapazari, Turkey—a possible cause of severe damage by the 1999 Kociaeli earthquake

The 1999 Kocaeli earthquake brought serious damage to downtown of Adapazari. To study why strong motions were generated at the town, a bedrock structure was investigated on the basis of Bouguer gravity anomaly, and SPAC and H/V analyses of microseisms. It was revealed that, the basin consists of three narrow depressions of bedrock with very steep edges, extending in E–W or NE–SW directions along the North Anatolia faults, and the depth to bedrock reaches 1000 m or more. Downtown of Adapazari is located 1–2 km apart from the basin-edge. It is considered that, the specific configuration of bedrock amplifies ground motions at the downtown area by focusing of seismic waves and/or interference between incident S-waves and surface-waves secondarily generated at the basin-edge. Studying 3D bedrock structure is an urgent issue for microzoning an urban area in a sedimentary basin.     

疏勒河流域昌马灌区泉水量预测分析

疏勒河流域农业灌溉主要采用地表水灌溉 ,泉水为该区农业灌溉的主要水源之一 ,该文利用 2 0世纪 90年代的测流资料 ,采用有限差分方法对疏勒河中游泉水量的变化趋势进行预测分析 ,结果显示 ,随着时间的延长 ,泉流量呈逐渐减小的趋势 ,但下降梯度逐渐变小 ,最终趋于稳定     

灌淤土壤可溶性盐分空间变异性与棉花生长关系研究

运用地统计学方法，在灌淤土壤上进行了棉田土壤可溶性盐分的空间变异规律与棉花生长关系系统研究。传统统计学分析表明土壤盐分测试数据基本符合正态分布；在一定取样间距下，土壤可溶性盐分的田间合理取样数目为27。半方差分析显示：土壤可溶性盐分具中等的水平变异性，但随着聚样深度的增加未表现出明显的垂直变异特性；随着棉花的生长发育，土壤可溶性盐分呈现出逐渐减弱的时间变异规律，采用直线或曲线拟合方程估计了可溶性盐分的半方差图及其参数，并绘制了其相应的等值线图。土壤可溶性盐分与棉花产量之间的相关分析表明：可溶性盐分含量与棉花产量之间呈显著负相关关系，且花铃期的相关性较播前显著。研究结果为提高田间试验有效性以及盐渍化土壤改良提供了科学依据与基础资料。     

改进的灰色模型在中国能源消费及其CO2排放预测中的研究

中国高速的经济发展导致了快速的能源消费和地球温暖化气体的排放量。本文应用灰色理论建立了中国的终端能源消费量的动态预测模型，同时应用等维递补及带有马尔科夫链符号估计的残差修正，对原始模型进行了改进。后验检验的结果证明了改进的预测模型具有较高的计算精度。预测结果表明，两种经济发展情况（高速及低速）下，从2000年到2030年期间的终端能源消费量的平均增长率将分别达到3．06％和2．18％，2030年CO2 的排放量将分别达到2000年的 2． 15及 1．60倍。其中工业及居民生活的能源消费量的增加速度快于其他部门。这表明了中国将要加快其工业化及都市化的进程．终端消费中，煤炭的消费量所占的比例将要逐年减少，而电力的比例则将逐年增大。     

Combining ordination techniques and geostatistics to determine the patterns of diatom distributions at Lake Lama, Central Siberia

The patterns of spatial variation of diatom assemblages from surface sediments in Lake Lama were quantified using a combined approach of ordination and geostatistics. The aims were (i) to estimate the amount of variation between diatom assemblages within the lake, (ii) to model the spatial variability of the diatom assemblages and their diversity, and (iii) to map the diatom distributions in the lake. A correspondence analysis (CA) separated the diatom assemblages into a planktonic and a periphytic group. Rheophilic taxa were found within the periphytic group. Variogram analysis showed that only the sample scores of the first CA axis and the Shannon diversity index were spatially structured. The range of spatial correlation was estimated to be 55 km for both variables. The diversity and, to a lesser extent, the sample scores had considerable small-scale variability of about 20 and 3%, respectively. Estimates of the first component of the CA and the Shannon index were derived using block-kriging. The maps of the estimates provided a basis for partitioning Lake Lama according to the spatial structures into an eastern and a western basin, a north–south connection between the basins, and a north–south directed tip at the far eastern end. It was shown that variation in diatom assemblages is mainly spatially structured at the catchment scale and that there is a considerable amount of variation at smaller scales. According to the modeled spatial distribution, the assemblages are most likely affected by the lake size, morphology, and the water and nutrient input introduced by rivers. This has to be taken into account when paleolimnological interpretations are drawn from records of complex lake systems like Lake Lama.     

On the spatial relationship between landslides and causative factors on Lantau Island, Hong Kong

This paper presents a statistical approach to study the spatial relationship between landslides and their causative factors at the regional level. The approach is based on digital databases, and incorporates such methods as statistics, spatial pattern analysis, and interactive mapping. Firstly, the authors propose an object-oriented conceptual model for describing a landslide event, and a combined database of landslides and environmental factors is constructed by integrating the various databases within such a conceptual framework. The statistical histogram, spatial overlay, and dynamic mapping methods are linked together to interactively evaluate the spatial pattern of the relationship between landslides and their causative factors. A case study of an extreme event in 1993 on Lantau Island indicates that rainfall intensity and the migration of the center of the rainstorm greatly influence the occurrence of landslides on Lantau Island. A regional difference in the relationship between landslides and topography is identified. Most of the landslides in the middle and western parts of the island occurred on slopes with slope angles of 25–35°, while in the eastern part, the corresponding range is 30–35°. Overlaying landslide data with land cover reveals that a large number of landslides occurred in the bareland and shrub-covered area, and in the transition zones between different vegetation types. The proposed approach can be used not only to analyze the general characteristics of such a relationship, but also to depict its spatial distribution and variation, thereby providing a sound basis for regional landslide prediction.