Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

The effects of gas flaring on crops in the Niger Delta,Nigeria

Flaring of associated gas from oil exploitation has several consequences on the environment. This study explores the spatial variability effects of gas flaring on the growth and development of cassava (Manihot esculenta), waterleaf (Talinum triangulare), and pepper (Piper spp.) crops commonly cultivated in the Niger Delta, Nigeria. Data was collected on soil and atmospheric temperature and moisture at a 20-m interval, starting at 40 m from the flare point to a distance of 140 m. Lengths and widths of crop leaves, height of crop plants and cassava yields were measured at the specified distances. The amino acid, ascorbic acid, starch, and sugar constituents of the cassava yields were determined. The results suggest that a spatial gradient exists in the effects of gas flares on crop development. Retardation in crop development manifests in decreased dimensions of leaf lengths and widths of cassava and pepper crops closer to the gas flare point. Statistical analysis also confirms that cassava yields are higher at locations further away from the flare point. In addition, the amount of starch and ascorbic acid in cassava decreased when the plant is grown closer to the gas flare. High temperatures around the gas flare appear to be the most likely cause of this retardation. The waterleaf crop, on the other hand, appears to thrive better around the gas flare point.     

Historical space as narrative medium: on the configuration of spatial narratives of time at historical sites

This paper examines how narratives of history are organized spatially at historical sites and memorial spaces, especially in urban settings and in places invested with a sense of collective memory. Much recent research has focused on landscape, memory, and place and how relationships of political and social power influence the representation of historical events in public spaces. Although the meaning of such sites may be hotly contested for long periods of time, we focus here on narrative theory and the related, but unexplored, issue of how such historical stories are configured on the ground at actual historical sites. We identify a number of narrative strategies which are frequently used to configure historical stories in space. Declamatory strategies using markers presenting a snapshot of an event are common, but sequential and non-sequential linear strategies are also used, as are thematic strategies that cross-cut space and time to present complex historical stories at various spatial scales. Examples are drawn from a range of historical sites in North America, Europe and Israel.     

Urban consolidation and house prices: a case study of Melbourne 1990–2004

This paper explores the links between a strategic policy, urban consolidation, and house prices by examining the changes in the mix of housing and in house price for the period 1991–2004. We contend that urban consolidation could be seen as a source of additional supply, (which might be expected to be felt in lower prices and so contribute to a local policy objective) but also as a stimulus to demand (by developers who could bid up the price of lots where it was understood more housing could be built). Analyses were carried out at the metropolitan and sub-regional scales using correlation tests. The research finds very weak statistical connections, and concludes that this policy has not been associated with price changes.     

TBM在不良地质洞条件下的施工技术

TBM掘进机以其快速、高效、安全、优质等优点越来越广泛地被应用于隧洞开挖施工中,尤其更适用于深埋超长隧洞,然而在不良地质洞段中TBM掘进缓慢,甚至有卡刀可能,反而不如钻爆法灵活,这就需要根据围岩性状采取特殊技术处理措施,辅以监控量测手段对支护方案进行验证、调整支护措施、修正设计参数等。结合辽宁大伙房输水隧洞工程,总结了在不良地质洞条件下的超前地质预报方法、不良地质段处理措施以及围岩变形监测方法。     

PSO-RBFNN模型及其在岩土工程非线性时间序列预测中的应用

岩土工程受力变形演化是一个典型的非线性问题,其演化的高度非线性和复杂性,很难用简单的力学、数学模型描述,但可用粒子群优化径向基神经网络对岩土工程应力、位移非线性时间序列进行动态实时预测。网络径向基层的单元数通过均值聚类法确定后,所有其它参数：中心位置、形状参数、网络权值,均通过粒子群优化算法在全局空间优化确定。工程实例应用表明,该模型预测结果准确、精度高,有良好的应用前景。     

渤海三维海洋温度和海流数值预报

"十·五"期间,我国开展了三维海洋温度和海流数值预报的业务化研究工作.经过3年的努力,渤海三维海洋温度和海流数值预报系统研制完成,并于2003年10月,开始试预报.本文对该预报系统以及运行情况进行了介绍,并分析了所存在的问题和发展方向.