黄土地区公路崩塌危险性简易快速评价方法探讨马保成,范丽晓,田伟平

公路黄土崩塌灾害在陕北黄土地区多发、易发,给当地公路交通建设和运营造成严重危害。结合陕北$302（榆林至佳县）沿线典型路段黄土边坡的现场调研,研究公路崩塌灾害简易快速评价方法,对灾害科学评判及减灾具有重要的工程意义。首先,分析了影响黄土崩塌灾害的因素,并通过专家咨询法和相对比较评分法提取了4个关键因子作为识别指标,即破坏阶段、坡度、崩塌规模和坡高;其次,给各个识别指标赋以相应权重,对公路黄土崩塌危险性进行初步综合评价,并以K66＋100～K66＋650路段为例进行实例检验,为快速识别评价公路黄土崩塌提供了一种方法。     

Effects of substorms on the stormtime ring current index Dst

There has been some discussion in recent times regarding whether or not substorm expansive phase activity plays any role of importance in the formation of the stormtime ring current. I explore this question using the K_p index as a proxy for substorm expansive phase activity and the D_st index as a proxy for symmetric ring current strength. I find that increases in D_st are mildly related to the strength of substorm expansive phase activity during the development of the storm main phase. More surprisingly, I find that the strength of D_st during the storm recovery phase is positively correlated with the strength of substorm expansive phase activity. This result has an important bearing on the question of how much the Dst index reflects activity other than that of the stormtime symmetric ring current strength for which it is supposed to be a proxy.     

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FACING CHALLENGESIN 21ST CENTURY

ISUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDER UN－guiding human forward．he author pointed out manyCEASINGCHALLENGES times that sustainable developmentwas a correctstrategic selectlonforhumanfuture and It representedaThe Zlst Century has come，people have many newdevelopmentoutlook，strategic vie呷olntandvalueforecasts and long for a wonde山lprospect．The 21st（CHEN，1997；200a；200b）．Century lsa bio－sclentmc era，an economic global－The authoralso pointed out th…     

流变学:构造地质学和地球动力学的支柱学科

地球是一动态系统,其各层圈的构造运动归根到底就是多矿物复合岩石在各种物理条件(例如,温度、围压、差应力、应变速率、应变方式等)下和化学环境(例如,氧逸度和水含量)中的形变。流变学作为研究岩石力学性质和变形行为的科学,现已成为地球动力学和构造地质学的支柱学科。本文对国际上近年来岩石流变学的最新进展做些扼要的介绍,呼吁中国固体地学界加强流变学的研究,做出经得起时间淘洗、实践检验的原创性成果来,使中国的构造地质学研究迈进国际先进的行列。     

虾蟹混养塘中WSSV对三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)致死效应的定量研究

采用实时荧光定量PCR法,在对白斑综合症多发的虾蟹混养塘内三疣梭子蟹体内病毒含量进行定量跟踪检测的基础上,结合电子显微镜及病理切片,对室内经口服、注射两种回感模式处理已感染白斑综合症病毒的濒死三疣梭子蟹体内病毒含量进行实验验证,并观察其体内主要器官组织的病理改变。结果表明,受白斑综合症病毒感染的三疣梭子蟹存活与死亡取决于蟹体内病毒含量,当病毒含量≥109拷贝/ml时均进入濒死或死亡阶段,其主要器官组织均有明显的病理改变。     

南黄海微体古生物研究概述

从20世纪50年代至今,我国的海洋微体古生物研究从无到有,并且得到迅速发展.其中有孔虫、介形虫、放射虫、超微化石等海洋微体生物壳体是海洋地质研究不可缺少和替代的重要部分.南黄海是我国开展微体古生物研究较早、研究基础较好的海区.本文旨在回顾过去,立足现代,展望未来.     

地球空间信息科学在湖南国土资源可持续发展中的应用前景雏议

可持续发展是跨世纪多学科综合的重大学科领域,而地球空间信息科学是空间信息科学发展的重要成果。本文在阐述了地球空间信息科学的特点及发展现状,国土资源可持续发展的内涵和特点之后,简要探讨了地球空间信息科学在湖南国土资源可持续发展中的应用前景。     

准噶尔盆地沙湾凹陷二叠系凝析气藏相态识别及成因分析

近年来,我国中西部陆续发现了资源量较大的凝析气藏,准噶尔盆地沙湾凹陷周缘的多个凝析气藏也显示出深层勘探的潜力。针对沙湾凹陷凝析气藏的烃类流体特征和形成机制不清晰的科学问题,笔者等采用原油物性和地球化学分析测试,运用经验统计法来识别油气藏类型,分析油气相态特征及其来源。主要认识如下：① 沙湾凹陷二叠系主要存在带油环凝析气藏,中佳2- H井为典型带油环凝析气藏井,研究区存在风城组为烃源—断层垂向输导—温压控制的原生型和天然气气侵共同作用形成的次生型凝析气藏;② 结合P—V—T相图分析沙湾凹陷二叠系凝析气藏烃类流体C7+占比较小,挥发性油藏地层温度明显低于临界温度,地饱压差较小,黑油油藏地层流体的临界温度与临界凝析温度都较高且临界压力较小;③ 根据新光井区凝析气藏的气油比要高于13000 m3/m3,且新光1井凝析气藏属于无油环凝析气藏可判断新光1井为原生型凝析气藏;中佳2- H井凝析气藏正构烷烃损失率达到90%,且研究区存在混合来源气,证实该凝析气藏曾遭受气侵作用。笔者等提出的凝析气成因可为研究区下一步油气勘探提供参考,同时也可以为准噶尔盆地凝析气成藏的研究和资源评价提供方法支持。     

IMPACT OF DIABATIC PROCESSES IN AGCM ON 4-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION*

The impact of diabatic processes on 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) was studied using the 1995 version of NCEP's global spectral model with and without full physics.The adjoint was coded manually.A cost function measuring spectral errors of 6-hour forecasts to "observation" (the NCEP reanalysis data) was minimized using the L-BFGS (the limited memory quasi-Newton algorithm developed by Broyden,Fletcher,Goldfard and Shanno) for optimizing parameters and initial conditions.Minimization of the cost function constrained by an adiabatic version of the NCEP global model converged to a minimum with a significant amount of decrease in the value of the cost function.Minimization of the cost function using the diabatic model, however,failed after a few iterations due to discontinuities introduced by physical parameterizations.Examination of the convergence of the cost function in different spectral domains reveals that the large-scale flow is adjusted during the first 10 iterations,in which discontinuous diabatic parameterizations play very little role.The adjustment produced by the minimization gradually moves to relatively smaller scales between 10-20th iterations.During this transition period,discontinuities in the cost function produced by "on-off" switches in the physical parameterizations caused the cost function to stay in a shallow local minimum instead of continuously decreasing toward a deeper minimum. Next,a mixed 4D-Var scheme is tested in which large-scale flows are first adiabatically adjusted to a sufficient level,followed by a diabatic adjustment introduced after 10 to 20 iterations. The mixed 4D-Var produced a closer fit of analysis to observations,with 38% and 41% more decrease in the values of the cost function and the norm of gradient,respectively,than the standard diabatic 4D-Var,while the CPU time is reduced by 21%.The resulting optimal initial conditions improve the short-range forecast skills of 48-hour statistics.The detrimental effect of parameterization discontinuities on minimization was also reduced.     

浅析水利工程实施方案的灰色优选

由于灰色系统考虑了系统内部因素相互关系不完全清楚性,因而应用灰色局势决策法选择水利工程实施方案．更具有客观性、科学性。以某水利工程为实例,介绍了用灰色局势决策法对实施方案进行优选的原理和方法,通过实例证明：灰色局势决策法具有较好的实用性,且操作简便。