适应性治理与气候变化：内蒙古草原案例分析与对策探讨

适应性治理通过边学边做,针对各地方的社会经济条件、自然生态系统、地方知识文化等基本特征,基于一个动态、自下而上和自组织的过程不断测试和修正制度安排与知识体系,形成一个旨在解决实际问题的循环过程。通过内蒙古3个地区案例的对比分析研究,基于对其气候变化风险和社会脆弱性的评估,发现其在气候变化影响下形成的不同程度的社会脆弱性正是源于不同的草原利用机制和基于此的社会合作机制。正是因为3个案例地的牧民有着不同的社会资本和社会记忆,所以他们面对极端天气导致的自然灾害时,采取了不同的应对方式,有的牧户可以依赖于社会资本移动牲畜来渡过难关,有的牧户则可以在嘎查范围内重启社会记忆,通过合理安排草场利用和移动牲畜提高自身的抗灾能力,而有的牧户则只能通过买草料独立抗灾。这样不同的结果有力证明了适应性治理在提升这些地区气候变化应对能力方面的必要性和可行性。在地区层面引入适应性治理,可以满足各利益相关方的需求,有利于自然、社会及管理的多学科协同,与“未来地球计划”的协同设计、协同实施和协同推广理念不谋而合,是“未来地球”思想在气候变化适应研究中的实践。     

Effect of climate and seasonality on depressed mood among twitter users

Location-based social media provide an enormous stream of data about humans' life and behavior. With geospatial methods, those data can offer rich insights into public health. In this research, we study the effect of climate and seasonality on the prevalence of depression in Twitter users in the U.S. Text mining and geospatial methods are used to detect tweets related to depression and their spatiotemporal patterns at the scale of Metropolitan Statistical Area. We find the relationship between depression rates, climate risk factors and seasonality are varied and geographically localized. The same climate measure may have opposite association with depression rates at different places. Relative humidity, temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, snowfall, weed speed, globe solar radiation, and length of day all contribute to the geographic variations of depression rates. A conceptual compact map is designed to visualize scattered geographic phenomena in a large area. We also propose a three-stage framework that semi-automatically detects and analyzes geographically distributed health issues using location-based social media data.     

从风险社会理论视角看全国地震重点监视防御区制度的作用

地震灾害风险是中国社会可能遭遇的重大风险之一,地震灾害产生的社会风险具有显著的风险社会特征,本文从风险社会理论的视角分析了全国地震重点监视防御区制度的作用.文中梳理并整理了全国地震重点监视防御区的概念、确定的过程、全国地震重点监视防御区制度的内涵与建构过程,并以此为基础分析了全国地震重点监视防御区制度对控制我国重大社会风险的作用.本文认为,应在风险社会理论的指导下不断完善全国地震重点监视防御区制度,并将之贯彻到政府改革和社会治理的各个环节.     

Priming critical thinking: Simple interventions limit the influence of fake news about climate change on Facebook

Fake news about climate change refers to fabricated information that mimics the appearance of legitimate reporting but is intended to mislead consumers. In light of concerns about fake news regarding climate change and other topics, researchers and media providers have been searching for ways to limit its spread and influence. This study tested the effect of two simple interventions, both of which primed critical thinking, on individuals’ evaluation of the credibility of real and fake news about climate change on Facebook. Through an online experiment (n = 2,750 participants), participants either read a series of guidelines for evaluating news online, or read and then rated the importance of each guideline; a control group was not exposed to guidelines of any type. We found that participants exposed to both types of guidelines reported a reduced likelihood to trust, like, and share fake news about climate change on Facebook. Importantly, exposure to these guidelines did not diminish individuals’ likelihood to trust, like, or share legitimate climate news. The effect sizes for both types of intervention were small. However, because of the scale and speed at which social media operates, even a small reduction in users’ likelihood to trust, like, and share fake news could be meaningful and impactful.     

Obtaining a social licence for MPAs – influences on social acceptability

The biological success of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) depends to a large extent on their social acceptability, sometimes referred to as a social licence. Local resistance has slowed international progress towards a global network of MPAs. The causes of local resistance and limited social acceptability are poorly known, which constrains the development of new planning paradigms that could address these issues. Two case studies in New South Wales, Australia determined the factors that influenced community attitudes towards MPAs. The Port Stephens-Great Lakes Marine Park (PSGLMP) and Batemans Marine Park (BMP) underwent virtually identical and concurrent planning processes, however resistance to the BMP was more intense and sustained. Differences in the demographics, history, local media coverage and social impacts of each marine park contributed to these different community responses. The BMP demonstrated the ‘perfect storm’ of opposition triggers – a community struggling in the transition away from a primary production economy, a highly politicised media dominated by powerful elites with ideological objections to the park, and social impacts sufficiently profound to motivate local citizens to support an active campaign against the park. These impacts included loss of access, identity and increased competition for resources. This research points to the importance of developing a deeper understanding of the social, cultural and political landscape of the communities in which MPAs are proposed and a rethink of planning processes to better incorporate community objectives and knowledge.     

Human dignity: A fundamental guiding value for a human rights approach to fisheries?

Recently, a human rights approach has been center-staged within fisheries governance as a response to the limits of private property rights in reducing insecurity and vulnerability among fishers and fishing communities. Despite its growing adoption in international legal frameworks and among civil society organizations, the conceptual pitfalls of the human rights approach to fisheries (i.e., its neoliberal tendencies and the neglect of collective rights and social duties) raised by critical scholarship remain largely unsettled, leading to practical concerns about whether such a framework will ultimately benefit fishers on the ground. To further contribute to the debate, this article presents a nuanced discussion of the human rights perspective by introducing the concept of human dignity. Specifically, it argues that human dignity, with its greater conceptual scope and depth, could act as a foundational value with which to mitigate some of the shortcomings of the human rights approach. The purpose here is suggestive rather than definitive and is aimed at highlighting the link that has not been clearly made between human rights and human dignity. I argue that heightened attention to human dignity has the potential to create wider support for the human rights approach and ultimately help facilitate its efficacy in fisheries.     

The role of social networks in natural resource governance: What relational patterns make a difference?

Resent research has identified the existence of social networks as a common and important denominator in cases where different stakeholders have come together to effectively deal with natural resource problems and dilemmas. It has even been shown that social networks can be more important than the existence of formal institutions for effective enforcement and compliance with environmental regulations. However, all social networks are not created equal. On the contrary, the structural pattern of relations (i.e. the topology) of a social network can have significant impact on how actors actually behave. This clearly has implications for actors’ abilities to manage environmental challenges. This review aims to add more precision to initial insights and pending hypotheses about the positive impacts of social networks on governance processes and outcomes, by reviewing and synthesizing empirically based literature explicitly studying structural characteristics of social networks in natural resource governance settings. It is shown that significant differences in governance processes and outcomes can be expected among networks experiencing structural differences in terms of density of relations, degree of cohesiveness, subgroup interconnectivity, and degree of network centralization. Furthermore, the review shows that none of these structural characteristics present a monotonically increasing positive effect on processes of importance for resource governance, and that favoring one characteristic likely occurs at the expense of another. Thus, assessing the most favorable level and mix of different network characteristics, where most of the positive governance effects are obtained while undesired effects are minimized, presents a key research and governance challenge.     

The Geography of Reported Domestic Violence in Brisbane: A social justice perspective

Police call data and court data are used to map the incidence of reported domestic violence in Brisbane. These data are correlated with low family income, unemployment and a measure of multiple disadvantage (an Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage) for each Statistical Local Area (suburb) in Brisbane. Only the Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage is a statistically significant predictor of reported domestic violence. The finding of a significantly higher incidence of reported domestic violence among relatively worse-off families is investigated within a social justice context. A measure of multiple relative disadvantage is shown to better reflect the negative impacts of structural inequalities on families in explaining the reported occurrence of domestic violence .     

新疆的干旱环境与滑坡,泥石流及其防治对策

新疆的干旱气候环境,导致荒漠广布.受温差悬殊制约,风化作用强烈.不论山地或平原,松散物均较发育,由于降水时空分布不均,崩,滑,流具有明显的时空分布特征,大雨、暴雨往往集中在夏季。暴雨洪流,融雪洪流成了引发泥石流的动力。特殊的内陆环境条件,决定新疆降水量有限。受水动力条件不足制约,新疆的滑坡多系小型土滑,且往往与泥石流共生。换句话说,滑坡为泥石流提供了物源。因此,对新疆滑坡,泥石流的治理,应本着近期治标,长期治本的原则,以土木系统工程治表、生物系统工程治本。与此同时,还要强调社会系统工程,作为实施各项防护举措的保证。通过综合治理,以促进改善生态环境。     

论产业部门内经济结构的调整和优化

剖析了我国产业部门经济结构和运行机制存在的问题及形成这些问题的原因,并对产业部门经济结构的调整和优化组合的途径进行了探讨。