云南地区M≥6.8强震活跃期首发地震前中强地震活动特征

云南地区M≥6．8强震活跃期首发地震具有强度大、破坏重、影响广的特点。为深入剖析M≥6．8强震平静期中强地震活动特征,捕捉活跃期首发地震预测信息,研究了云南20世纪以来4个强震活跃幕的基本特征;根据平静期中强地震时经、时纬动态变化的有序迁移,以平静期6级首发、结束地震为参照,将平静期划分为调整、迁移、平静三个阶段,提出平静期比活跃期长以及6级地震的指示意义等活跃期首发强震的震前特征,同时提出预测标志以及平静期中青藏块体对云南SSE向侧向挤压是主要动力源等新观点,为首发强震的预测、短临跟踪提供了依据。     

东南沿海地震带20世纪活跃幕划分及活动周期分析

探讨了东南沿海地震带20世纪以来在时间分布方面存在的密集－平静相互交替的丛集现象。 对以往按地震能量释放的分布划分出的活跃—平静幕数目不等的多种结果; 对东南沿海地区54次M≥43/4地震的时间间隔序列, 在使用有序样品聚类分析中的“离差平方和”法及误差函数法, 从误差随分段数增加而减少的拐点值及误差函数比值认为四段活跃幕划分是合理的。 从 1943 年之后, 计算得出的东南沿海地区中强以上地震序列的时间变异系数δ值为1.2 , 明显处于丛集状态。 对东南沿海地震区20世纪以来四个地震活跃幕中, 其丛集非线性时间结构演化幂指数, 即各幕地震的累积频次与发震系统内部时间的关系基本符合为N=ct^d。 4个活跃幕的演化幂指数d变化范围分布在0.7~0.8。 东南沿海地震区20世纪以来M6.0以上的强震也基本符合该关系式。 只是其活跃幕演化幂指数d为 0.47 。     

对滇东地区强震幕式活动与强震趋势的探讨

滇东地区的强震活动有明显的周期性，这已为众多的地震学的研究所证实，但进入第Ⅴ幕第５个强震活动时段后，仅发生了１次６．３级地震，从而改变了本世纪以来前４个强震活动时段的强震活动次数（最少２次）与强度，这就经起人们的关注，是否再次发生比６．３级更大的强震？一直困扰着人们。所以许多学提出不同的认为企图解释这一问题。作就是在上述认识的基础上提出了新看法并对滇东地区的强震活动趋势进行了探讨。     

华南地震区地震活动基本特征与地震大形势再研究

在总结前人工作成果基础上,对华南地震区地震的空间和时间分布及地震能量释放特征进行了新的研究。指出强震主要集中发生在东南两端,目前的第二周期将在２０２０年前后结束,本世纪本（第四）活动幕将延续到２００３年前后结束,今后６级以上强震主要会集中在粤桂琼交界地区发生。     

制约和影响中国大陆地震活动大形势的动力因素研究

从地球动力学角度,研究制约和影响我国大陆地震活动的兴衰起伏的内在原因,揭示我国大陆地震活动期（３００年）、幕（２０年左右）、段（几年）实际是由于太阳黑子活动、地球自转速率变化、全球强震活动水平在不同阶段迭加和组合的结果。     

Ceilometer observations of aerosol layer structure above the Petit Lubéron during ESCOMPTE's IOP 2

A modified ceilometer has been used during the second Intensive Observation Period (IOP) of the “Expérience sur Site pour COntraindre les Modèles de Pollution atmosphériques et de Transport d'Émission” (ESCOMPTE) to perform continuous remote observations of aerosol accumulations in the first 3 km of the atmosphere. These observations encompassed an episode of intense particulate and photochemical pollution. The submicronic particles density, measured at an altitude of 600 m, went from a very low point of a few tens of particles per cubic centimeter (at the end of a Mistral episode in the free atmosphere) to a high point of more than 4500 particles per cubic centimeter (when pollutants were trapped by thermal inversions).The main result is that this instrument enables a fine documentation of the mixing layer height and of aerosol particles stratifications and circulation. Airborne aerosol measurements have been made above the mountainous region of Mérindol in order to validate in situ the remote sensing measurements. Ozone measurements near the summit of the mountains as well as in the valley were performed in order to correlate aerosol accumulation and ozone concentration. As a notable example, the two-layer aerosol stratification seen in the first 2 days of IOP 2b in that part of the ESCOMPTE domain confirms the results of another team which used backtrajectories. The low-altitude pollution for this timeframe had a local origin (the Fos industrial area), whereas above 500 m, the air masses had undergone regional-scale transport (from north-eastern Spain).The second major result is the highlighting of a pattern, in sea breeze conditions and in this part of the ESCOMPTE experiment zone, of nocturnal aerosol accumulation at an altitude of between 500 and 2000 m, followed by high ozone concentration the next day.     

Unexpected High Levels of Ozone Measured in Córdoba, Argentina

Results of field measurements carried out from June 15 to December 31, 1995, in Córdoba city (Argentina) are presented. During this field campaign, surface ozone mixing ratios were generally around 30–35 ppb (afternoon peak). However, during the first week of September, days with excessive ozone values close to 100 ppb were found. These elevated ozone concentrations appeared together with high values of NOx, CO, PM10, and an unusual meteorological situation for this time of the year. These results made this episode an interesting one to be studied in more detail. In this work, we used chemical and meteorological data to trace the region from where the assumed precursors were emitted and we identified possible source characteristics.     

2008年北京奥运会期间污染控制效果数值模拟——以个例分析为例

利用2007和2008年北京地区空气质量监测资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析了北京地区空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm颗粒物(PM10)污染过程与天气形势及天气系统之间的关系。结果表明:西太平洋热带气旋路径对北京地区发生PM10污染具有预示作用,即当热带气旋北上并在朝鲜半岛或日本登陆的情况下,北京地区一般受持续均压场等弱中尺度天气系统控制,这种中尺度天气系统不利于污染物的扩散,因此北京地区经常发生区域性的PM10空气污染事件。在2007年9次台风北上登陆朝鲜半岛或日本的过程中,北京地区伴随发生了9次PM10污染过程,预示准确率达100%,2008年的预示准确率也达到了80%以上。为了说明北京奥运会期间污染控制措施对改善北京空气质量有实际效果,利用中国科学院大气物理研究所区域空气质量模式NAQPMS,采用无控制措施源和有控制措施源,对2008年北京残奥会期间一次西太平洋北上型热带气旋天气条件下的空气质量状况进行了数值模拟试验,揭示了此次过程北京地区未发生PM10空气污染的原因。     

夏季东北亚阻塞形势维持时的天气尺度波

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日资料，分析了一次夏季东北亚阻塞形势维持期间(1991年6月27日至7月16日)高频波活动强弱的分布和传播的特征，发现在阻塞高压上 游的巴伦支海上空有明显异常的高频波活跃区，从该活跃区和位于东北大西洋的常年活跃区，高频波不断东传，传到东北亚时，变弱消亡。据此，作者推测高频波的能量传给了阻塞形势，使阻塞形势得以维持。利用Eu矢量分析的高频波能量传播也表明了这一点。此外，利用Eu和Ev矢量讨论了高频波对纬向平均流和经向平均流的反馈强迫作用。结果表明，高频波的强迫作用使得时间平均纬向流在急流分支处呈减弱的趋势。高频波对时间平均的经向流反馈强迫作用更加明显，这种强迫使得急流在阻塞高压的上游产生分支，而在下游产生南北分支气流的汇合。最后，分析了高频波和低频波对热量的南北输送，表明在阻塞期间高频波在东亚地区对流层顶附近产生非常清楚的向北热量输送(冷空气向南输送或暖空气向北输送)，而低频波(可用来表示阻塞流型)的向北热量输送作用表现在对流层中下层，相对来讲不明显。     

Studying the City Plume of Berlin on 20 July 1998 with Three Different Modelling Approaches

In this paper we try to identify and describe the specifics of the Berlin city plume characterised by a zone of enhanced photochemical activity downwind of the urban area, where the major emissions of ozone precursors (NO_x and VOC) take place. Two Eulerian CTM systems (EURAD and REM3/CALGRID) and one Euler–Lagrangian model (LaMM5) are applied to thearea of Berlin/Brandenburg to investigate the processes involved in the evolution of the Berlin plume inherent to the models. The study focuses on 20 July 1998,the first special observation period (SOP) during BERLIOZ. The examination includes (1) the role of turbulence and transport and the role of mass flux to the surface during the evolution of the plume, (2) the import situation of the ground based measurement sites, (3)the terms of the ozone budget equation and their contribution to precursor distribution and ozone formation, (4) the substructures of the plume defined by its chemical regimes. Main results show that the complex meteorological conditions during this SOP with considerable turbulent transports demand an Euler–Lagrangian approach to determine the source receptor relationshipsfor the ground based measurement sites. These relations reveal that only a minor part (5%) of the air approaching Pabstthum and the more downwind (north-western) stations origins from Berlin and that the mutual transport between all sites was limited. The latter result afflicts the joint interpretation of data from different stations because the presumption to measure the same air mass is violated in many cases for this SOP. The CTM results reveal that the local net production of ozone within the plume was controlled by transport ad chemical processes both owning the same importance but tending to counteract each other. At this SOP far distance sources of ozone precursors originating from the Bohemian basin did not interfere the Berlin city plume although they generally have the potential to do so.