综合优势相似法在短期气候预测中的应用

综合优势相似法是建立在相似因子群的多项相似与动态相似基础之上的，因此更能反映大气天气过程的实际演变，其预测趋势可最接近天气气候实况。综合优势相似法中相似和不相似这两个预报时段的气象序列的对比分析和严格检验是不可缺少的一部分，只有相似和不相似两者呈显著差别，才能认定相似有效，以相当高的可信度保证了预报的客观性和可靠性。综合优势相似法操作简便，在2002年濮阳和2004年郑州汛期降水趋势预报中效果良好，可作为目前短期气候预测业务中的基本工具。     

Developing environmental indices using fuzzy numbers ordered weighted averaging (FN-OWA) operators

Environmental indices (EI) constitute a common communication tool that is often used to describe the overall status of environmental systems (air, water and soil). EI development entails the use of mathematical operators to aggregate various non-commensurate input parameters in a logical manner. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator is a general mean type operator that provides flexibility in the aggregation process such that the aggregated value is bounded between minimum and maximum values of the input parameters. This flexibility of the OWA operator is realized through the concept of orness, which is a surrogate for decision maker’s attitude. The type of input parameters also affects the choice of aggregation operators. If the input parameters are linguistic or fuzzy, the aggregation through OWA operators is not possible, and the use of fuzzy arithmetic is warranted. The concept of fuzzy number OWA (FN-OWA) operators is explored to handle situations in which one or more input parameter has fuzzy (or linguistic) values. The proposed approach is demonstrated using data provided in an earlier study by Swamee and Tyagi (ASCE J Environ Eng 126(5):451–455, 2000) for establishing water quality indices. Multiple hypothetical scenarios are also generated to highlight the utility and sensitivity of the proposed approach.     

Quantification of spatial gradation of slope positions

Transition between slope positions (e.g., ridge, shoulder slope, back slope, foot slope, and valley) is often gradual. Quantification of spatial transitions or spatial gradations between slope positions can increase the accuracy of terrain parameterization for geographical or ecological modeling, especially for digital soil mapping at a fine scale. Current models for characterizing the spatial gradation of slope positions based on a gridded DEM either focus solely on the parameter space or depend on too many rules defined by topographic attributes, which makes such approaches impractical. The typical locations of a slope position contain the characteristics of the slope position in both parameter space and spatial context. Thus, the spatial gradation of slope positions can be quantified by comparing terrain characteristics (spatial and parametrical) of given locations to those at typical locations. Based on this idea, this paper proposes an approach to quantifying the spatial gradation of slope positions by using typical locations as prototypes. This approach includes two parts: the first is to extract the typical locations of each slope position and treat them as the prototypes of this position; and the second is to compute the similarity between a given location and the prototypes based on both local topographic attributes and spatial context. The new approach characterizes slope position gradation in both the attribute domain (i.e., parameter space) and the spatial domain (i.e., geographic space) in an easy and practicable way. Applications show that the new approach can quantitatively describe spatial gradations among a set of slope positions. Comparison of spatial gradation of A-horizon sand percentages with the quantified spatial gradation of slope positions indicates that the latter reflects slope processes, confirming the effectiveness of the approach. The comparison of a soil subgroup map of the study area with the maximum similarity map derived from the approach also suggests that the quantified spatial gradation of slope position can be used to aid geographical modeling such as digital soil mapping.     

Winkler地基上材料非线性矩形薄板主参数共振-主共振研究

研究Winkler地基上材料非线性矩形薄板的参数共振-主共振问题。建立Winkler地基上材料非线性矩形薄板的动力学方程。利用Galerkin方法将其转化为非线性振动方程。应用非线性振动的多尺度法求得系统满足主参数共振-主共振条件的近似解,并进行数值计算。分析激励、调谐值、阻尼系数、非线性参数、几何参数对共振响应曲线的影响。     

非均质介质中地下水流动与溶质运移模拟——问题与挑战

对大空间尺度和长时间跨度的地下水流动及污染物质运移进行预测的需求, 使水文地质研究面临异乎寻常的挑战.这些需求来自于对核废料地质储放方法的安全性评价、地下水污染状况评价及其治理方案的选择.流动系统的非均质性是地下水流动及物质运移模拟中最主要的困难之一, 这种困难来自对非均质系统进行特征描述(通过原位观测实现)、概念化及模拟.评述了非均质介质中流动运移模拟的一些重要问题与挑战, 讨论了解决的途径.讨论的主题包括: 动力流动的沟道化, 示踪剂穿透曲线, 裂隙岩石中流体流动的多尺度, 观测的不同尺度, 模拟、预测与非均质性以及系统特征描述和预测性模拟的分析.      

Turbulence Statistics Above And Within Two Amazon Rain Forest Canopies

The turbulence structure in two Amazon rain forestswas characterised for a range of above-canopystability conditions, and the results compared withprevious studies in other forest canopies and recenttheory for the generation of turbulent eddies justabove forest canopies. Three-dimensional wind speedand temperature fluctuation data were collectedsimultaneously at up to five levels inside and abovetwo canopies of 30–40 m tall forests, during threeseparate periods. We analysed hourly statistics, jointprobability distributions, length scales, spatialcorrelations and coherence, as well as power spectraof vertical and horizontal wind speed.The daytime results show a sharp attenuation ofturbulence in the top third of the canopies, resultingin very little movement, and almost Gaussianprobability distributions of wind speeds, in the lowercanopy. This contrasts with strongly skewed andkurtotic distributions in the upper canopy. At night,attenuation was even stronger and skewness vanishedeven in the upper canopy. Power spectral peaks in thelower canopy are shifted to lower frequencies relativeto the upper canopy, and spatial correlations andcoherences were low throughout the canopy. Integrallength scales of vertical wind speed at the top of thecanopy were small, about 0.15 h compared to avalue of 0.28 h expected from the shear lengthscale at the canopy top, based on the hypothesis that theupper canopy air behaves as a plane mixing layer. Allthis suggests that, although exchange is not totallyinhibited, tropical rain forest canopies differ from other forests in that rapid, coherentdownward sweeps do not penetrate into the lowercanopy, and that length scales are suppressed. This isassociated with a persistent inversion of stability inthat region compared to above-canopy conditions. Theinversion is likely to be maintained by strong heatabsorption in the leaves concentrated near thecanopy top, with the generally weak turbulence beingunable to destroy the temperature gradients over thelarge canopy depth.     

Turbulence Characteristics In The Surface Boundary Layer Over The South American Pampa

This paper presents results of turbulence measurementsmade in the south of Brazil in the Pampa region.Data collected at 1Hz are used to calculatestandard deviations of temperature and velocities. Onthe other hand data collected at 10Hz areused to study the behaviour of spectra and cospectraof turbulence in the surface layer. Dimensionless dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy and temperature variance are also presented. The frameworkof Monin–Obukhov Similarity theory is used and allresults are compared with other experimentalstudies.     

Magnitude-Intensity Relationships in the Ibero-Magrebhian Region

In this paper we present magnitude (Ms) – magnitude(mb) and magnitude-intensity relationships which areconsidered the most adequate in the Ibero-Maghrebianregion. This work is based on selected samples ofrecently revised events with magnitude mb assigned bythe Instituto Geográfico Nacional (I.G.N.) and Msassigned by I.S.C and N.E.I.C., and isoseismal mapsfrom 142 events. Using these data, we have obtainedone magnitude (Ms) – magnitude (mb) relationship, twomagnitude (mb and Ms) assignment relationships viaepicentral intensity (I₀), and ten magnitude (mb andMs) assignments relationships via macroseismicinformation: four using Ambraseys' methodology (1985)and six using the isoseismal area of degree III, IV and VI.According to the obtained results it could be concluded that historical magnitude assignment with lesser uncertainties are those obtained via macroseismic information using magnitude-intensity relationships with Ambraseys' methodology (1985). The magnitude-isoseismal area assignment relationships have, in most cases, great differences depending on the degree of the isoseismal area used. Magnitude assignments via epicentral intensity have the highest uncertainties. Geographic regionalization of the relationshipshas been studied but the highest correlations and statistical significance are obtained when we fit all the Ibero-Maghrebian region data.Finally we have used the results obtained in this workto assign magnitude to some important historicalearthquakes in the Ibero-Maghrebian region: the 1755Lisbon earthquake, the 1680 Málaga earthquake, the1829 Torrevieja earthquake and the 1884 Arenas del Reyearthquake. According to our relationships andmethodology we have assigned an Ms value of 9.3 ±0.6 to the 1755 Lisbon earthquake (its mb magnitudecannot be estimated due to the saturation of the mbscale), an mb value of 6.3 ±0.4 and an Ms valueof 6.9 ± 0.6 to the 1829 Torrevieja earthquake, anmb value of 6.2 ± 0.4 and an Ms value of 6.4 ±0.6 to the 1680 Málaga earthquake and an mb valueof 6.1 ± 0.4 and an Ms value of 6.5 ± 0.6 tothe 1884 Arenas del Rey earthquake.     

甘肃春季沙尘暴环流特征及其时间尺度诊断分析

根据43a甘肃春季沙尘暴日数距平序列选取了甘肃春季沙尘暴多发年和少发年。对甘肃春季沙尘暴多发年和少发年前期冬季(12月至翌年2月)和同期春季(3~5月)500hPa环流距平场合成结果表明, 前期冬季东亚大槽、同期春季蒙古气旋是影响沙尘暴发生多少的主要系统。西风指数和东亚北风指数计算结果表明, 沙尘暴多发年与少发年指数差异明显, 沙尘暴与冬季风联系紧密。甘肃春季沙尘暴小波变换分析, 清楚地反映沙尘暴不同频域的变化特征及其交替作用; 不同频域小波系数变化说明21世纪初沙尘暴将趋于增加。     

主汛期降水量预测信号及方差权重方法的应用

为了制作四川盆地主汛期降水预报对相似方法作了改进,首先是根据四川盆地主汛期降水的前３个特征向量分别寻找有物理基础的前期信号作为预报因子,然后充分考虑各因子对总降水量贡献大小定义因子场的相似,确定相似年,最后引入“集成”的思想,由５个相似年的降水场得到预测年降水的定量客观预报。１９８１～１９９４共１４年的预报结果准确率高于当前业务预报水平。