主汛期降水量预测信号及方差权重方法的应用

为了制作四川盆地主汛期降水预报对相似方法作了改进,首先是根据四川盆地主汛期降水的前３个特征向量分别寻找有物理基础的前期信号作为预报因子,然后充分考虑各因子对总降水量贡献大小定义因子场的相似,确定相似年,最后引入“集成”的思想,由５个相似年的降水场得到预测年降水的定量客观预报。１９８１～１９９４共１４年的预报结果准确率高于当前业务预报水平。     

南极洲乔治王岛柯林斯冰帽小冰穹顶冰芯数学模式初步断代

冰芯钻取后，样品截取原则和环境记录的初步解释要求对年代－深度剖面有一初步了解，即要求建立冰体随深度变化的时间尺度。根据柯林斯冰帽一年多野外实测资料所揭示的小冰穹运动状况、温度分布、物质平衡和动力学特征，本文采用Ｄａｎｓｇａｒｒｄ－Ｊｏｈｎｓｅｎ模型和等温冰体流动模型（ｎ＝３），分别对一支８０．２ｍ冰芯的时间尺度进行初步估算。结果表明两种模型断代结果非常接近，在距冰床１０ｍ深度处，两模型分别给出１８９７年和１８５４年的冰龄。对比指出两种模型计算出的冰帽各深度冰龄最大误差不大于２％。与冰芯中上部含深褐色火山灰冰层的历史记录年代相比误差小于３％。     

ELIMINATING COMPLEX EIGENVECTORS AND EIGENVALUES IN MULTIWAY ANALYSES USING THE DIRECT TRILINEAR DECOMPOSITION METHOD

The direct trilinear decomposition method(DTDM)is an algorithm for performing quantitative curveresolution of three-dimensional data that follow the so-called trilinear model,e.g.chromatography-spectroscopy or emission-excitation fluorescence.Under certain conditions complexeigenvalues and eigenvectors emerge when the generalized eigenproblem is solved in DTDM.Previouspublications never treated those cases.In this paper we show how similarity transformations can be usedto eliminate the imaginary part of the complex eigenvalues and eigenvectors,thereby increasing theusefulness of DTDM in practical applications.The similarity transformation technique was first used byour laboratory to solve the similar problem in the generalized rank annihilation method(GRAM).Because unique elution profiles and spectra can be derived by using data matrices from three or moresamples simultaneously,DTDM with similarity transformations is more efficient than GRAM in the casewhere there are many samples to be investigated.     

Cost-effective network design for groundwater flow monitoring

The extensive use of groundwater resources has increased the need for developing cost-effective monitoring networks to provide an indication of the degree to which the subsurface environment has been affected by human activities. This study presents a cost-effective approach to the design of groundwater flow monitoring networks. The groundwater network design is formulated with two problem formats: maximizing the statistical monitoring power for specified budget constraint and minimizing monitoring cost for statistical power requirement. The statistical monitoring power constraint is introduced with an information reliability threshold value. A branch and bound technique is employed to select the optimal solution from a discrete set of possible network alternatives. The method is tested to the design of groundwater flow monitoring problem in the Pomona County, California.     

天津市250m低层大气风廓线模式的试验研究

本文用天津250m气象塔的风廓线观测资料,检验了M-O相似理论的近地层风廓线模式。结果认为,在中性和不稳定条件下,使用近地层计算得到的L和U_*,M-O相似模式可以较好地推广应用。对稳定层结,用Yokoyama等人提出的U_*一级近似表达式替换常通量层公式中的相应量后,U_*和u/z之间的关系在风向随高度没有明显偏转的层次中仍然成立并且至少可推广应用到120m。     

不同尺度条件下的土壤侵蚀实验监测及模型研究

土壤侵蚀的实验和监测是获取水土流失资料的重要手段,土壤侵蚀模型研究是水土保持规划、管理的重要内容。本文对点、小区、田间和坡面、流域及区域尺度条件下的土壤侵蚀的实验和监测研究进行了综述,分析了当前国际上实验研究和监测研究的侧重点及其不足;并对当前国际上土壤侵蚀模型的总体发展趋势进行了评述,特别分析了这些模型在全球气候变化背景下的作用;最后对当前土壤侵蚀、试验及检测研究作出展望。     

海洋风暴形成的一种动力学机制

文中从观测统计学、瞬变涡动能量学和 MM5中尺度数值模拟角度 ,研究了海洋风暴 (爆发性气旋 )形成的气候特征及其可能的动力学机制 ,揭示了一幅爆发性发展的物理图像。结果表明 ,在冷季大气特别是日本以东洋面上大气特有的热力气候背景下 ,通过同海洋风暴过程相联系的涡动热通量 vθ的向极地输送 (- vθ· θm>0 ) ,将季节尺度的时间平均有效位能向瞬变涡旋时间尺度的涡动有效位能转换 ,是海洋风暴形成的主要动力机制。在该过程中转换来的具有最大贡献的涡动有效位能 ,连同具有次大贡献的积云加热制造的涡动有效位能(q3 )一起 ,通过暖异常区 (α >0 )暖湿空气上升运动 (-ω >0 )的斜压转换 (-ωα) ,促使涡动动能增长。同时 ,补充的涡动有效位能又加强了暖异常区的暖湿空气上升运动 ,进而产生积云对流活动及其潜热释放的正反馈过程 ,最终导致涡动动能急剧增长和海洋风暴的形成。海-气潜热输送的作用是在风暴形成初期提供后来积云尺度对流活动及潜热释放的水汽潜力。研究还表明 ,海洋风暴主要发生在冷季月份 1 3 0°E以东的中高纬洋面上 ,这种对特定季节和特定海域的依赖性是大气和海洋气候背景的动力 /热力共同作用的结果     

A Simple And General Subgrid Model Suitable Both For Surface Layer And Free-Stream Turbulence

A new and general approach is presented to allow standard subgrid schemes to besuitable both for surface layer and free-stream turbulence. Simple modificationsto subgrid schemes are proposed and derived for any vertical stabilityconditions. They are simple to implement in models and are suitable for morecomplicated simulations such as large-eddy simulation with inhomogeneoussurface conditions or complex topography. They are also applicable to mesoscaleand large-scale models. These modifications are physically justified by recentmeasurements of spectra close to the ground. The spectral analysis presentedshows how the energy deficit of blocked turbulence for a given dissipation(`anomalous dissipation') dramatically affects the coefficients to be used insubgrid schemes. As shown for neutral and convective cases with wind shear,these changes allow us to substantially improve the prediction of profiles for themean quantities in the surface layer. Agreement with similarity laws in the unstablecase is found up to about 0.2z_i, for simulated shear, stabilityprofiles and dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy.     

非洲、澳洲、南美洲的连环拼合与成因探讨

通过对非洲、澳大利亚、南美洲彼此之间的大陆架边界线相似的概率分析，指出巧合是不可能的，地球在过去几十亿年间一定发生了大规模的膨胀。