主汛期降水量预测信号及方差权重方法的应用

为了制作四川盆地主汛期降水预报对相似方法作了改进,首先是根据四川盆地主汛期降水的前３个特征向量分别寻找有物理基础的前期信号作为预报因子,然后充分考虑各因子对总降水量贡献大小定义因子场的相似,确定相似年,最后引入“集成”的思想,由５个相似年的降水场得到预测年降水的定量客观预报。１９８１～１９９４共１４年的预报结果准确率高于当前业务预报水平。     

脉冲星时间尺度及其TOA预报初步分析

在简述国际天文学会(IAU)定义的几种不同时间尺度的基础上,重点讨论脉冲星计时观测中时间坐标相对论转换问题。脉冲星计时观测资料分析应该参考地球时TT,并将TT转换为质心坐标时TCB或质心力学时TDB。基于IAU重新定义的TDB,讨论和比较了时间坐标转换的解析算法和利用太阳系天体历表的数值积分算法。分析了TCB和TDB对脉冲星自转参数测量的影响。最后,以毫秒脉冲星PSR B1855+09的计时模型为例,初步分析了脉冲星脉冲到达时间的预报问题。     

Winkler地基梁在温度场中受简谐激励的主共振分析

研究W inkler地基梁在温度场中受简谐激励作用的主共振问题。应用弹性理论和Galerk in方法建立W inkler地基梁在温度场中受简谐激励作用的非线性动力方程。应用非线性振动的多尺度法,求得系统主共振的近似解。分析不同参数对主共振响应曲线的影响。     

Magnitude-Intensity Relationships in the Ibero-Magrebhian Region

In this paper we present magnitude (Ms) – magnitude(mb) and magnitude-intensity relationships which areconsidered the most adequate in the Ibero-Maghrebianregion. This work is based on selected samples ofrecently revised events with magnitude mb assigned bythe Instituto Geográfico Nacional (I.G.N.) and Msassigned by I.S.C and N.E.I.C., and isoseismal mapsfrom 142 events. Using these data, we have obtainedone magnitude (Ms) – magnitude (mb) relationship, twomagnitude (mb and Ms) assignment relationships viaepicentral intensity (I₀), and ten magnitude (mb andMs) assignments relationships via macroseismicinformation: four using Ambraseys' methodology (1985)and six using the isoseismal area of degree III, IV and VI.According to the obtained results it could be concluded that historical magnitude assignment with lesser uncertainties are those obtained via macroseismic information using magnitude-intensity relationships with Ambraseys' methodology (1985). The magnitude-isoseismal area assignment relationships have, in most cases, great differences depending on the degree of the isoseismal area used. Magnitude assignments via epicentral intensity have the highest uncertainties. Geographic regionalization of the relationshipshas been studied but the highest correlations and statistical significance are obtained when we fit all the Ibero-Maghrebian region data.Finally we have used the results obtained in this workto assign magnitude to some important historicalearthquakes in the Ibero-Maghrebian region: the 1755Lisbon earthquake, the 1680 Málaga earthquake, the1829 Torrevieja earthquake and the 1884 Arenas del Reyearthquake. According to our relationships andmethodology we have assigned an Ms value of 9.3 ±0.6 to the 1755 Lisbon earthquake (its mb magnitudecannot be estimated due to the saturation of the mbscale), an mb value of 6.3 ±0.4 and an Ms valueof 6.9 ± 0.6 to the 1829 Torrevieja earthquake, anmb value of 6.2 ± 0.4 and an Ms value of 6.4 ±0.6 to the 1680 Málaga earthquake and an mb valueof 6.1 ± 0.4 and an Ms value of 6.5 ± 0.6 tothe 1884 Arenas del Rey earthquake.     

Improved numerical solution of Dobrovol'skaya's boundary integral equations on similarity flow for uniform symmetrical entry of wedges

Dobrovol'skaya [1] presented a similarity solution for the water entry of symmetrical wedges with constant velocity. The solution involves an integral equation that becomes increasingly harder to numerically solve as the deadrise angle decreases. Zhao and Faltinsen [2] were able to present reliable results for deadrise angles down to 4°. In this paper, Zhao and Faltinsen's results are improved and reliable results for deadrise angles down to 1° are confirmed by comparing to the asymptotic solutions at small deadrise angles and the solutions by the traditional boundary element method at relatively large deadrise angles. The present similarity solution results provide a reference solution in theoretical studies of water entry problems and in developing accurate numerical solvers for simulating strongly nonlinear wave–body interactions, which flows are governed by Laplace equation or Euler equation.     

藏南羊卓雍错湖面大气湍流特征观测分析

湍流运动是大气边界层的本质特征,是地表与大气之间能量和物质交换的主要方式.本文利用2016和2017年4-10月藏南羊卓雍错湖泊涡动观测资料,分析了湖面大气湍流方差和湍流特征量的统计和变化特征.结果表明：（1）不稳定层结下,三维风速分量和超声虚温、水汽密度、CO₂密度的无量纲标准差随稳定度变化符合Monin-Obukhov相似理论的"1/3"或"-1/3"次幂律,垂直风速的拟合效果最好;稳定层结下,除CO₂密度无量纲标准差与稳定度无明显关系外,其他量基本上满足相似性规律;中性条件下,以上物理量的无量纲标准差分别趋近常数：3.57、3.93、0.77、20.91、6.35和11.96.（2）水平方向平均湍流强度（0.60和0.58）大于垂直方向（0.13）,三维方向湍流强度与平均风速的变化呈显著负相关,相关系数分别为-0.39、-0.42和-0.34.（3）湖面湍流动能随风速呈线性增长,增长率达0.45 m/s;近中性层结时湍流动能最大,层结越稳定或不稳定湍流动能均减小.（4）湖泊下午到傍晚动量输送较强,13：00-22：30时间段平均动量通量达0.091 kg/（m·s²）;热量输送以潜热为主,潜热通量日平均值（77.3 W/m²）是感热通量（14.6 W/m²）的5.3倍,感热和潜热通量日变化峰值分别出现在5：30（22.4 W/m²）和16：00（106.6 W/m²）.     

Winkler地基上材料非线性矩形薄板主参数共振-主共振研究

研究Winkler地基上材料非线性矩形薄板的参数共振-主共振问题。建立Winkler地基上材料非线性矩形薄板的动力学方程。利用Galerkin方法将其转化为非线性振动方程。应用非线性振动的多尺度法求得系统满足主参数共振-主共振条件的近似解,并进行数值计算。分析激励、调谐值、阻尼系数、非线性参数、几何参数对共振响应曲线的影响。     

Detecting multi-scale riverine topographic variability and its influence on Chinook salmon habitat selection

Quantifying geomorphic conditions that impact riverine ecosystems is critical in river management due to degraded riverine habitat, changing flow and thermal conditions, and increasing anthropogenic pressure. Geomorphic complexity at different scales directly impacts habitat heterogeneity and affects aquatic biodiversity resilience. Here we showed that the combination of continuous spatial survey at high resolution, topobathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR), and continuous wavelet analysis can help identify and characterize that complexity. We used a continuous wavelet analysis on 1-m resolution topobathymetry in three rivers in the Salmon River Basin, Idaho (USA), to identify different scales of topographic variability and the potential effects of this variability on salmonid redd site selection. On each river, wavelet scales characterized the topographic variability by portraying repeating patterns in the longitudinal profile. We found three major representative spatial wavelet scales of topographic variability in each river: a small wavelet scale associated with local morphology such as pools and riffles, a mid-wavelet scale that identified larger channel unit features, and a large wavelet scale related to valley-scale controls. The small wavelet scale was used to identify pools and riffles along the entire lengths of each river as well as areas with differing riffle-pool development. Areas along the rivers with high local topographic variability (high wavelet power) at all wavelet scales contained the largest features (i.e., deepest or longest pools) in the systems. By comparing the wavelet power for each wavelet scale to Chinook salmon redd locations, we found that higher small-scale wavelet power, which is related to pool-riffle topography, is important for redd site selection. The continuous wavelet methodology objectively identified scales of topographic variability present in these rivers, performed efficient channel-unit identification, and provided geomorphic assessment without laborious field surveys.     

中亚地震目录震级转换及其完整性分析

为编制能够应用于地震危险性分析的中亚地区统一震级标度为矩震级的地震目录,从国际地震中心（ISC）下载得到该地区1907-2012年的地震数据,该数据包含众多机构不同震级标度的地震记录.以MW,GCMT为参考机构震级标度,并用最小二乘法拟合了其他机构震级标度与MW,GCMT之间的转换关系.在挑选某次地震事件的唯一震级记录时,以对应转换关系的相关系数大且剩余标准差小为准则进行筛选.对于少量没有震级转换关系或者拟合优度过差的地震记录,使用间接转换关系或者全球转换关系予以补充转换.震级转换后,用时空窗法删除前余震,并考虑构造环境和地震活动水平的空间差异性将研究区划分成5个子区域.采用地震记录时间累积曲线法、最大曲率法（MAXC）和拟合优度检验法（GFT）综合分析各个分区的最小完整震级（MC）,并在此基础上用极大似然法拟合相应的地震活动性参数.结果表明,每种完整性分析方法各具一定的优缺点,但采用综合分析的方法能够得出最佳的MC.地震记录时间累积曲线法能分析出高质量地震目录的起始时间,以作为后两种方法的基础,但容易受到地震活动水平随时间波动的影响.由于研究区目录质量较差,最大曲率法误差过大以至于只能作为其他方法的补充,拟合优度检验法的GFT参数也普遍只能达到80％左右.GFT最大值点可能并不对应MC,但是MC通常都在GFT极大值点取得.5个分区1964-2012年的MC普遍在Mw4.8左右,b值在1.136-1.514之间波动.