卫星资料的非线性反演同化与一次强降水预报试验

利用地球同步气象卫星红外资料,通过优选BP人工神经网络和最优拟合回归这两种非线性方法,建立了反演宁夏大气相对湿度场的数学模型。反演湿度场经过变分同化与质量控制后,代入中尺度数值预报模式MM5,对一次突发性强降水过程进行了预报试验。结果表明,使用该资料后,数值预报模式对这次突发强降水过程的预报能力明显提高,模式输出产品具有预报指示意义,spin-up问题得到了一定程度的改进。     

An Inconvenient Truth: blurring the lines between science and science fiction

Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth gives a variety of unusually biased interpretations of the state of climate science and global warming theory. These cover a wide range of natural events and processes which could potentially be impacted by global warming, but which the movie misrepresents as clear examples of the human influence on climate. A few examples include the mixing up of cause and effect in his graphical portrayal of temperature and carbon dioxide variations over hundreds of thousands of years; the repeated depiction of ice calving from glaciers as a sign of global warming; the implication that Hurricane Katrina was the fault of humans; and the particularly extreme view that the Greenland ice sheet will melt, flooding coastal cities worldwide. Ultimately, all of these are related to the widespread perception that scientists have uniquely tied global warming to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The real inconvenient truth is that science has no idea how much of recent warming is natural versus the result of human activities.     

A Mediterranean derecho: Catalonia (Spain), 17th August 2003

At approximately 6:10 UTC in the morning of 17th August 2003, a squall line developed over south Catalonia (the northeast region of Spain). During the next 9 h, the squall moved rapidly northeast and crossed Catalonia and the French regions of Languedoc–Roussillon and Province, damaging and uprooting hundreds of trees and blocking trains in the region. Wind gusts reached were recoded up to 52 m/s with evidence of F2 intensity damage. This case study shows the characteristics of a derecho (widespread convectively induced windstorm).Radar observations of the evolving squall line show signatures often correlated with damaging surface winds, including:

a. Bow echoes,

b. Rear inflow notches,

c. Rear inflow jets,

d. Medium altitude radial convergence,

e. Narrow gradient of very marked reflectivity,

f. Development of isolated cells ahead of the convective line,

g. A band of convection off the northern end of the line known as a “warm advection wing”.

When examining the different surface observations, satellite, radar imagery and cloud-to-ground lightning data, this case shows many similarities to those investigated in the United States. The derecho is a hybrid case, but has many characteristics of warm season derechoes. This emanates from a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) moving along a quasi-stationary, low-level thermal boundary in an environment characterized by high potential instability and relatively strong mid-tropospheric winds.     

Lightning activity related to satellite and radar observations of a mesoscale convective system over Texas on 7–8 April 2002

A multi-sensor study of the leading-line, trailing-stratiform (LLTS) mesoscale convective system (MCS) that developed over Texas in the afternoon of 7 April 2002 is presented. The analysis relies mainly on operationally available data sources such as GOES East satellite imagery, WSR-88D radar data and NLDN cloud-to-ground flash data. In addition, total lightning information in three dimensions from the LDAR II network in the Dallas–Ft. Worth region is used.GOES East satellite imagery revealed several ring-like cloud top structures with a diameter of about 100 km during MCS formation. The Throckmorton tornadic supercell, which had formed just ahead of the developing linear MCS, was characterized by a high CG+ percentage below a V-shaped cloud top overshoot north of the tornado swath. There were indications of the presence of a tilted electrical dipole in this storm. Also this supercell had low average CG− first stroke currents and flash multiplicities. Interestingly, especially the average CG+ flash multiplicity in the Throckmorton storm showed oscillations with an estimated period of about 15 min.Later on, in the mature LLTS MCS, the radar versus lightning activity comparison revealed two dominant discharge regions at the back of the convective leading edge and a gentle descent of the upper intracloud lightning region into the trailing stratiform region, apparently coupled to hydrometeor sedimentation. There was evidence for an inverted dipole in the stratiform region of the LLTS MCS, and CG+ flashes from the stratiform region had high first return stroke peak currents.     

2005年8月21日桂西大暴雨天气分析与降水模拟

利用常规、红外云图、雷达资料对2005年8月21日发生在桂西的大暴雨天气过程进行诊断分析，发现造成桂西这次强降雨主要直接影响系统来自低层切变线、高空低槽和地面静止锋。低层切变线是引发此次强降水的主要系统。低层低涡是在桂西强降水发生后才逐渐发展起来的。采用非静力中尺度数值模式（MM5）对这次大暴雨过程进行初步模拟试验，结果表明模式对这次强降水的雨带分布、暴雨中心强度及其位置的模拟也与实况较为接近。     

Charging of the Penglai 9-1 oil field,Bohai Bay basin,China: Functions of the delta on accumulating petroleum

The Penglai 9-1 (PL9-1) oil field, which contains China's third largest offshore oil accumulation (in-place reserves greater than 2.28 × 10⁸ ton or 1.49 × 10⁹ bbl), was found in shallow reservoirs (700–1700 m, 2297–5577 ft) within the most active fault zone in east China. The PL9-1 field contains two oil-bearing series, the granite intrusions in Mesozoic (Mz) and both the sandstone reservoirs in Neogene Guantao (Ng) and Neogene Minghuazhen (Nm) Formation. The origins of the PL9-1 field, both in terms of source rock intervals and generative kitchens, were determined by analyzing biomarker distributions for 61 source rock samples and 33 oil samples. The Mesozoic granite intrusions, which hold more than 80% of the oil reserves in the field, were charged in the west by oil generated from the third member (Es₃) of the Shahejie Formation in the Bodong depression. The Neogene reservoirs of the PL9-1 field were charged in the west by oil generated from the third member (Es₃) of the Shahejie Formation in the Bodong depression and in the south by oil generated from the first member (Es₁) of the Shahejie Formation in the Miaoxibei depression. Interactive contact between the large fan delta and the mature source rocks residing in the Es₃ Formation of the Bodong depression resulted in a high expulsion efficiency from the source rocks and rapid oil accumulation in the PL9-1 field, which probably explains how can this large oil field accumulate and preserve within the largest and most active fault zone in east China.     

一次强对流天气及其中短时强降水的成因分析

利用常规地面、高空观测资料,自动站资料,NCEP再分析资料,多普勒雷达资料和WRF模式模拟资料等,对2009年6月初晋豫鲁皖苏5省的一次强对流天气及其中短时强降水的形成原因进行了分析。结果表明:本次过程是在高空东北冷涡不断引导冷空气南下,与低层低涡扰动形成冷暖空气汇合的有利天气形势下发生的。边界层内的强烈辐合抬升是触发对流发生和释放对流不稳定能量的主要原因之一。高空有明显的干侵入并叠加在低层高假相当位温的暖湿空气之上,这种较强的位势不稳定形势对本次过程中对流系统的触发提供了有利的条件。对流系统移动方向一侧有较强的风暴相对螺旋度,通过低层辐合上升气流的倾斜作用,使更多的水平涡度转化为垂直涡度,为本次过程的发展、维持以及其短时强降水的发生提供了有利的条件。     

2009年大连春季强对流雨雪天气过程分析

2009年4月15日大连出现了春季最晚的降雪天气。利用常规资料、自动气象站和雷达等多种资料及中尺度模式MM5对这次强对流雨雪天气过程进行了分析和模拟,结果表明,200hPa急流、500hPa贝加尔湖冷槽南压形成的冷涡、中低层南支槽前水汽输送以及地面冷锋是产生大连春季强对流雨雪天气的环流背景;中层干冷空气叠加在低层暖湿层...     

一次弓状回波、强对流风暴及合并过程研究Ⅰ：以单多普勒雷达资料为主的综合分析

利用济南CINRAD/SA雷达探测资料,结合卫星、自动站和其他常规天气资料,分析了一次弓状回波和强对流风暴的发生、发展,弓状回波和强对流风暴合并形成新弓状回波后又演变成逗点回波的过程。结果表明：（1）强对流过程发生在东北低涡横槽转竖过程,大气环境具有较大的对流有效位能和中等强度的低层垂直风切变。FY-2C卫星的红外云图...     

一次弓状回波、强对流风暴及合并过程研究Ⅱ：双多普勒雷达反演三维风场分析

利用济南和滨州两部新一代多普勒雷达反演的三维风场,分析了发展成熟和减弱阶段的弓状回波、强对流风暴的三维风场结构,以及两者合并过程的风场变化特征。结果表明：（1）弓状回波的头部和尾部分别对应气旋性和反气旋性环流,气旋性环流较强。在逗点云系阶段,回波强度、主上升气流,以及气旋和反气旋性环流开始减弱。（2）强对流风暴靠近处于...