论雷暴风化作用

在位于冀东地区海拔１８４０多米的都山顶峰，笔者首次发现了雷暴风化作用，并目睹了雷暴风化作用的进行。在都山顶部，发现了雷暴风化砾石堆，分析了雷暴风化作用的物理依据，估算出一次雷暴作用所释放能量的０．０７％－０．００７％就可使１ｍ＾３的花岗岩断裂。阐述了雷暴风化作用的时空分布规律，指出雷暴风化作用主要发生在低纬度近山地地区。气候比较温暖且降水量较多的地史时期是雷暴风化作用较发育阶段。对于中国东部中低山     

我国雷暴活动对宇宙线福布希下降的短期响应

本文研究了1971－1980年间51个大于3％的宇宙线福布希下降对我国185个气象站上空雷暴活动的短期影响.结果表明，雷暴活动对福布希下降的短期响应存在明显的空间差异．在一些区域中福布希下降后雷暴活动明显增强，而在另一些区域中明显减弱，在这些明显响应区中，雷暴活动在福布希下降前后的差异显著性分别通过了10-2－10－6置信度检验．这些响应区所在的地理位置与雷暴活动对耀斑爆发的响应区相互对应，但响应性质恰恰相反．这些结果给太阳活动与地球短期天气相关机理研究提出了新的挑战，也为进一步的研究提供了新的事实根据．     

Developing a building policy for the erosion zone: Solutions to some key (Dutch) questions

In those coastal communities where the most seaward strip of mainland consists of dunes, these dunes often serve as a flexible sea defence. In addition, this strip offers large potential for housing and commercial enterprises. Unfortunately, due to severe storm surges part of this strip (the erosion zone) is subject to erosion, and as a result of which any buildings or infrastructure located here, are destroyed. Therefore, as we will illustrate in this paper, a building policy for this zone should reflect a compromise between two opposite interests: exploitation of the existing potential and, prevention of an unacceptable high risk due to erosion. Accordingly, the authors have developed a framework for such a building policy on the basis of which the desirability of various different types of investments and the location within the erosion zone of such investments can be determined. The examples that are used to illustrate this framework in this paper are limited to experiences in The Netherlands as relevant data and experiences are available and relatively easy accessible here. Nevertheless, the approach as is described is generic and applicable worldwide suggesting that the discovered unused potential for exploitation is not just limited to The Netherlands.     

飑线对定点地形变观测的影响特征与机理——以陕西关中盆地为例

2013年7月31日～8月1日陕西关中盆地爆发了一次强飑线灾害性天气过程,为揭示此次飑线生命史期间对定点地形变观测的影响特征与机理,本文结合多普勒天气雷达和气象资料,系统分析了关中盆地内4个地形变观测数据。结果表明:(1)飑线过境时的短时气压突变是造成定点地形变的主要原因,引起最大的地倾斜和地应变分别达9.70×10~(-3″)和21.02×10~(-9);(2)气压变幅与地形变的弹性响应量具有较好的线性关系,二者持续时间较一致,为2～4h,其中,钻孔体应变的动态气压系数达4.04×10~(-9)/h Pa;(3)宝鸡、乾陵和华阴台对飑线的响应能力较好,西安台则较差;(4)除水管仪外,垂直摆、洞体应变和钻孔体应变等对飑线的响应均较为灵敏。上述结果有助于合理识别和科学推定飑线所导致定点地形变异常变化的物理本质,进而减少实际业务中的误判;同时,还能为定点地形变观测台站的科学选址、仪器的优化布设及不同空间尺度大气负荷模型的实证等提供重要的参考依据。     

“6·23”江苏阜宁EF4级龙卷超级单体风暴中尺度结构研究

2016年6月23日14—15时,江苏省阜宁县突遭"增强藤田"4级龙卷、强风、短时强降水和冰雹等强对流天气,致使99人罹难,800多人受伤,属极其罕见的极端天气事件.本文利用加密自动站数据、探空数据、单部雷达观测数据以及双多普勒雷达三维风场反演数据,研究了此次龙卷发生的天气背景、龙卷超级单体的三维结构及其演变特征.研究表明：（1）龙卷发生期间,阜宁处于地面暖湿舌内、地面有γ中尺度气旋和辐合线;环境大气抬升凝结高度很低、中低层有很强的水平风的垂直切变;这有利于龙卷的生成.（2）此次龙卷超级单体左移风暴的低层有钩状回波和入流缺口,有界弱回波区位于垂直剖面中低层、悬垂回波位于风暴前部高层.（3）龙卷发生前,风暴质心高度、最大反射率因子高度和风暴回波顶高度均持续增加,风暴垂直累积液态含水量激增;龙卷发生在上述参数的数值首次同时减小时.（4）双多普勒雷达反演的三维风场揭示,超级单体形成之前的对流风暴内部中低层已经有中尺度气旋形成,中尺度气旋伴随着超级单体的生成、发展和强化的各个阶段.中尺度气旋位于钩状回波顶端、其南端有反气旋,此涡旋偶对于中层动量下传、龙卷生成、发展、加强和触地具有重要作用.     

Development and behaviour of a radar-based operational tool for hailstorms identification

Hailstorms are a common meteorological phenomenon in Spain which causes substantial economic damage especially in spring and summer. During 2000 and 2001, a radar-based application for convective monitoring was developed at STAP (Forecasting and Analysis Techniques Department); in order to improve this nowcasting tool, it is needed to include an advanced procedure to estimate the presence of hail as a complementary module in the operational application. A preliminary study, carried out during 2001, showed that the Waldvogel technique, VIL (vertical integrated liquid) density and the hail detection algorithm (HDA) are the methodologies which proved more accurate in our latitudes.Throughout the spring and summer of 2001, all available information about hail events (time, place and hail size) and about storms without hail was used for tuning an experimental module to detect severe and non-severe hailstorms, taking into account the selected algorithms. During 2002, further information about storms was gathered in order to assess the behaviour of the developed hail module. Afterwards, a new module calibration was carried out with the information of the complete storms data set of 2001 and 2002. With this new calibration, the hail module became an operational tool during the spring and summer of 2003. Currently, the verification of the operational module using the data from the storms in 2003 is being elaborated. The aim of this work is to put forward the calibration procedure carried out, the verification results of 2002, and the performance of the hail estimate module in selected cases during 2003 in Spain.     

雷电探测资料在人工影响天气作业中的应用研究

利用2002~2005年XDD 03A型雷电探测系统的DDW资料,结合广西人影作业资料和其它气象资料,对雷电资料如何在人影作业中的应用进行了分析和探讨。结果表明,雷电系统可以比雷达和卫星探测提前约1h反映对流云的移动,同时在识别过冷层厚度,把握地面增雨防雹作业时机等方面也具有一定的指导作用。     

雷州半岛雷暴发生频次变化特征及其与作物布局调整的相关分析

为了探究雷州半岛作物布局调整对雷暴发生的可能影响,以达到趋利避害,利用相关分析、11种模型拟合和全变量回归分析等数理统计方法进行了分析和研究。结果表明：雷州半岛年雷暴日数总的变化趋势是明显下降,一年四季均有雷暴天气,午后热雷雨占雷暴天气的大多数,其中5～9月雷暴日数最多,开雷、收雷年际变化差异大。随着稻田的减少,糖蔗、水果种植面积的增加,雷州半岛植被结构得到改善,雷暴天数呈明显减少趋势;蔬菜的种植改变了冬季闲田植被性质,不利于冬初、春末雷暴天气的生成;花生种植面积的调整对雷暴天数变化影响不大。雷州半岛水稻、糖蔗、水果、蔬菜等主要农作物布局调整对雷暴发生可能有明显的影响,主要农作物对雷暴天数可能影响从大到小依次为糖蔗、水稻、蔬菜和水果,农作物布局调整对年开雷、收雷的迟早没有影响。     

冷锋附近地面场中尺度特征及其与强对流天气的关系

本文利用山东潍坊台站提供的山东半岛部分加密测站地面场逐时资料和欧州中期预报中心（ECMWF）的逐日12时（GMT）大尺度纬带网格资料和国家气象局历史天气图，对一次冷锋在地面场的中尺度结构及其与强对能天气的关系和大尺度环境条件进行了诊断．结果发现：沿冷锋产生强天气的锋线附近存在类似于重力惯性波的中尺度波动；锋后中尺度冷高与强天气的分布有关；大尺度环境为强夭气产生提供了有利的条件。     

锋面北侧冷气团中连续降雹环境场特征及成因

对2009年2月24日—3月5日我国南方锋面北侧冷气团中连续冰雹天气过程的环流形势和环境场特征及形成机理进行分析。此次冰雹过程是发生在我国南方典型的连阴雨天气形势背景下,欧亚中高纬度地区为两槽一脊形势,副热带高压偏强、中南半岛为低槽区,青藏高原有5次短波槽东移,中层700 hPa暖湿气流势力强盛。中层强西南暖湿气流在强锋区 (冷垫) 上抬升,形成我国南方典型的高架雷暴。高架雷暴的发生与中低层强温度锋区、中层700 hPa不低于20 m·s-1的西南急流、强风垂直切变、对流层中层较大的温度直减率、较低的0℃层高度 (4 km以下) 有关。