不同参数化方案对风预报效果影响个例研究

中尺度气象模式对风场的预报效果与参数化方案的适应性紧密相关.以内蒙古高原丘陵地形、江苏平缓的海陆交界地形2种典型下垫面试验风电场为模拟区域,分别用WRFV3.2 （Weather Research and Forecast Model）模式自带的6种物理过程参数化组合方案预报了2010年1月和7月两个风电场区域的风速和风向,对比分析了参数化组合方案差异对风场预报的影响.结果表明：①内蒙古试验区,边界层MRF方案描述的边界层结构较MYJ方案合理;微物理方案WSM3在夏季的风速预报能力优于WSM6,而冬季相反;复杂地形区域的风场预报需考虑陆面过程参数化方案,尤其是夏季降水发生后,陆面过程对于边界层结构的影响增大,选用Noah优于无陆面过程.②江苏试验区,边界层MRF方案描述的边界层结构较MYJ方案合理;1月陆面过程RUC方案优于陆面热量扩散和Noah;7月陆面热量扩散方案优于RUC和Noah.③风向预报6个方案的预报风向统计与实际记录风向统计有较好的一致性,风向概率分布相似,盛行风向一致且稳定.     

用前期海温预报四川夏季气温的EOF迭代方案

应用ＥＯＦ（经验正交函数）迭代方案，考虑多时次历史资料，在全球海区海温与四川盆地气温非同步联系的基础上，以海温为预报因子进行了夏季气温的长期预报。结果表明：西太平洋高温区等关键海区海温的异常对未来四川盆地夏季气温变化有重要影响，由此建立的引入多时次海温的ＥＯＦ迭代长期温度预报方法，具有较强的预报能力     

劳动争议案件时效制度的法律思考

针对我国劳动争议案件处理的时效制度和仲裁前置程序的规定直接影响劳动争议的解决,提出取消仲裁前置程序,由当事人自愿选择仲裁或诉讼;或者,可以保留劳动争议仲裁的前置程序,但应将仲裁时效与诉讼时效严格区分。     

IMPACT OF DIABATIC PROCESSES IN AGCM ON 4-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION*

The impact of diabatic processes on 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) was studied using the 1995 version of NCEP's global spectral model with and without full physics.The adjoint was coded manually.A cost function measuring spectral errors of 6-hour forecasts to "observation" (the NCEP reanalysis data) was minimized using the L-BFGS (the limited memory quasi-Newton algorithm developed by Broyden,Fletcher,Goldfard and Shanno) for optimizing parameters and initial conditions.Minimization of the cost function constrained by an adiabatic version of the NCEP global model converged to a minimum with a significant amount of decrease in the value of the cost function.Minimization of the cost function using the diabatic model, however,failed after a few iterations due to discontinuities introduced by physical parameterizations.Examination of the convergence of the cost function in different spectral domains reveals that the large-scale flow is adjusted during the first 10 iterations,in which discontinuous diabatic parameterizations play very little role.The adjustment produced by the minimization gradually moves to relatively smaller scales between 10-20th iterations.During this transition period,discontinuities in the cost function produced by "on-off" switches in the physical parameterizations caused the cost function to stay in a shallow local minimum instead of continuously decreasing toward a deeper minimum. Next,a mixed 4D-Var scheme is tested in which large-scale flows are first adiabatically adjusted to a sufficient level,followed by a diabatic adjustment introduced after 10 to 20 iterations. The mixed 4D-Var produced a closer fit of analysis to observations,with 38% and 41% more decrease in the values of the cost function and the norm of gradient,respectively,than the standard diabatic 4D-Var,while the CPU time is reduced by 21%.The resulting optimal initial conditions improve the short-range forecast skills of 48-hour statistics.The detrimental effect of parameterization discontinuities on minimization was also reduced.     

卫星重力梯度测量数据的粗差探测

分别讨论了阈值法、Dixon检验法和小波算法应用于卫星重力梯度数据粗差探测的效果。为了克服这3种单一粗差探测方法的不足,提出了卫星重力梯度数据的粗差探测组合方案,即联合Dixon检验和小波算法,以及联合Dixon检验、阈值法和小波算法的组合方案。模拟结果表明,两种组合方案均能有效改善粗差探测的效果。     

上海市水准网复测数据分析与应用

对水准网平差的理论依据、精度评定做了介绍,结合上海市2011年水准网数据,就平差方案、精度评定和成果分析等进行了探讨。通过选取大量的实践数据验证分析,得出了精度较为准确的验证结果,表明采用按照距离定权分等级平差获得的成果可作为此次平差数据处理的最终成果,提出成果的应用方法。     

线纹计量器具检定系统表修订建议

JJG 2001-1987《线纹计量器具检定系统》是我国线纹计量器具进行量值传递的检定系统表,但其存在着许多不足,已无法满足当今计量检定的需要。此处对该检定系统表进行详细分析后给出修订建议,并介绍了目前国际上有关动向,提出了一些有益建议。     

非线性Schrödinger方程的一个线性化紧致差分格式

对非线性Schrödinger方程给出了一个线性化紧致差分格式,运用不动点定理和能量方法证明了格式的唯一可解性,还运用能量方法和数学归纳法,避开困难的先验估计,证明格式在空间方向和时间方向分别具有四阶和二阶精度,数值算例验证了格式的精度和数值稳定性.     

铁路调度信息机房与轨道测速系统防雷设计方案

山西省大同市大秦铁路湖东车站信息调度机房由于没有按照防雷规范的要求安装外部防雷装置和内部防雷装置,因此每年雷雨季节都要不同程度地遭受雷击损失,本文主要是从直击雷防护、电源系统感应雷防护、轨道测速系统等电位接地等方面按照现代综合防雷的要求提出设计方案。