ECC方法在中国夏季气温预测研究中的应用

以中国夏季气温为预测对象,选取东亚地区冬季500 h Pa高度场、海平面气压场、地表温度场和850 h Pa温度场为预测因子,采用1951~2009年去趋势处理后的资料,通过变形的典型相关分析(Barnett-Preisendorfer Canonical Correlation Analysis,BP-CCA)方法分别建立单因子预测模型,再利用集合典型相关分析(Ensemble Canonical Correlation,ECC)方法建立集合预测模型,对中国夏季气温进行基于交叉检验方法的预测试验,然后利用2010~2014年的资料对中国夏季气温进行独立样本检验。通过分析BP-CCA模态可知,一对BP-CCA模态的空间型在一定程度上可以反映预报因子场和对象场的遥相关特征。通过基于交叉检验方法的预测试验表明环流场和热力场均能为气温提供预测信息。ECC预测模型综合了各个预报因子的在不同地区的预报技巧,比单因子BP-CCA预测模型有更高、更稳定的预报技巧。独立样本检验表明ECC模型与单因子BP-CCA预测模型相比,对中国夏季气温有更高、更稳定的实际预测能力,对气温季节预测具有参考价值。     

Spatial and temperal patterns in bacterioplankton communities across a river-lake continuum

Bacterioplankton play critical roles in biogeochemical cycling. Although spatial and temporal variations in bacterioplankton community compositions (BCCs) within individual habitat have been reported, knowledge gaps remain for studies conducted within different habitats. In this work, we examined the seasonal and spatial variability of BCCs in Nanfei River and Lake Chaohu which had significant environmental heterogeneity using a high-throughput sequencing technique of 16S rRNA gene amplicons. The results showed that spatial variation has a more obvious impact on the BCCs than seasonal changes. The microbial diversity gradually decreased and BCCs changed obviously along water flow direction from Nanfei River to the western and estern parts of Lake Chaohu over all seasons. LEfSe analysis showed that Nanfei River had higer abundance of species belonging to the orders Rhodocyclales, Methylococcales, Campylobacterales and Flavobacteriales, samples from eastern part of Lake Chaohu were abundant in taxonomies including the order Rickettsiales, while the western part had high abundance of taxonomies belonging to the order Chroococcales. The redundancy analysis (RDA) indicated that BCCs in Nanfei River were associated with high nutrient (TP, PO₄-P, TN, NH₃-N, NO₂-N and NO₃-N) concentrations and electrical conductivity. Variance partitioning RDA analysis indicated that the combined effects of all variables may be most important affecting BCCs. This study may provide a framework for modeling the change in bacterioplankton communities through different habitats from a river to lake.     

Mostly Dormant Comets and their Disintegration into Meteoroid Streams: A Review

The history of associating meteor showers with asteroidal-looking objects is long, dating to before the 1983 discovery that 3200 Phaethon moves among the Geminids. Only since the more recent recognition that 2003 EH1 moves among the Quadrantids are we certain that dormant comets are associated with meteoroid streams. Since that time, many orphan streams have found parent bodies among the newly discovered Near Earth Objects. The seven established associations pertain mostly to showers in eccentric or highly inclined orbits. At least 35 other objects are tentatively linked to streams in less inclined orbits that are more difficult to distinguish from those of asteroids. There is mounting evidence that the streams originated from discrete breakup events, rather than long episodes of gradual water vapor outgassing. If all these associations can be confirmed, they represent a significant fraction of all dormant comets that are in near-Earth orbits, suggesting that dormant comets break at least as frequently as the lifetime of the streams. I find that most pertain to NEOs that have not yet fully decoupled from Jupiter. The picture that is emerging is one of rapid disintegration of comets after being captured by Jupiter, and consequently, that objects such as 3200 Phaethon most likely originated from among the most primitive asteroids in the main belt, instead. They too decay mostly by disintegration into comet fragments and meteoroid streams. The disintegration of dormant comets is likely the main source of our meteor showers and the main supply of dust to the zodiacal cloud. Editorial handling: Frans Rietmeijer.     

三峡库首煤系高岭石研究

研究了三峡库首宜昌地区煤系高岭岩的性质和高岭石在高温状态下的热物理性能及其在橡胶工业中的应用.通过化学成分分析证明了高岭岩中含有95%的高岭石,采用X射线衍射、透射电镜、差热分析方法对高岭石在不同温度(500～1 300°C)条件下煅烧过程中的变化进行了表征,在1 000°C以上的相变产物为莫来石和方英石,依据高岭石的高温煅烧机理,选择在900～980°C条件下直接煅烧高岭石,制备的超细高岭石微粉可用作氯化丁基橡胶的功能填料,能达到或超过美国同类产品的效果,同时也符合技术标准的要求.     

临清坳陷变换构造研究

讨论了临清坳陷内3个规模较大的调节构造带,即封丘左行传递带、马陵横向背斜调节带和夏津—腰站斜向背斜调节带的构造特征及成因机制。临清坳陷内“东西分带、南北分块”的构造特征,是由平行于裂谷轴方向的NNE(NE)向伸展正断层和垂直(或斜交)于裂谷轴方向的NW(NWW)斜向滑移断层及横向构造带等共同作用造成的;区内3个规模较大的调节构造带是造成“南北分块”的构造原因,这些调节构造带垂直或斜交于裂谷方向．通过传递带或调节带的方式调节不同伸展域间的应变,从而使区域应变守恒。     

Sedimentary and drainage evolution of the Condamine Valley Transition Zone (eastern Australia)

The basal succession of the Condamine Valley, which overlays the boundary between the Surat and Clarence-Moreton basins (eastern Australia), contains a clay-rich horizon ‘the Transition Zone’ that marks a pronounced unconformity between the Jurassic Walloon Coal Measures and the Quaternary Condamine Alluvium. This paper provides insights into the tectonic and drainage evolution of the Condamine Valley through integrated analysis of U–Pb ages of detrital zircon from three samples (494 concordant analyses), stable oxygen isotope analysis on eight authigenic clay samples, X-ray fluorescence of primary and trace elements, and hyperspectral mineral analysis from two drill cores (Lone Pine 17 and Daandine 164). The Transition Zone is interpreted to consist of both weathered Jurassic sediments and Cenozoic clay deposits. Two sequential cycles of erosion, deposition and pedogenesis, related to geomorphological and climatic conditions are recognised. Distinctive oxygen isotope signatures of the two weathering fronts demonstrated an initial Early Cretaceous phase (δ¹⁸O?=?11.9–15.7‰ VSMOW) associated with laterisation and possible uplift, followed by Paleogene (δ¹⁸O?=?16.4–17.3‰ VSMOW) silcretisation of reworked Jurassic sediments. Detrital zircon geochronology yielded Jurassic maximum constraints for the age of deposition of three samples that are indistinguishable within error, the oldest of which (163?±?8?Ma from the lateritic profile) corresponds to the age of the underlying Walloon Coal Measures. The two overlaying samples from a silcrete profile and granular alluvium yielded overlapping yet younger ages of 150?±?6?Ma and 156?±?9?Ma, respectively. Vitrinite reflectance used as a proxy for the thermal condition of the coal strata enabled an estimated 2–3?km of burial and subsequent (likely Early Cretaceous) uplift. Geochemical insights from the Condamine Valley correspond to broad-scale climatic and tectonic conditions, suggesting that ‘transition zone equivalents’ and corresponding groundwater dynamics may occur in similar sedimentary settings throughout eastern Australia.     

葡萄石的热膨胀性与压缩性及其地质意义

利用同步辐射X射线衍射及拉曼光谱技术对葡萄石分别进行了原位高温及原位高压实验。原位高温实验结果表明葡萄石的热膨胀系数为K=1. 77(3)×10~(-5)K~(-1),轴向热膨胀系数具有各向异性(α_aα_bα_c),葡萄石在1073K时开始发生脱水反应,分解为钙长石及硅灰石。原位高压X射线衍射实验结果表明,在大于12. 4GPa时,葡萄石的晶胞参数发生不连续变化,可能发生了相变;在24. 0GPa左右,葡萄石发生不可逆的非晶化转变。原位高压拉曼光谱表明,葡萄石在12. 6GPa左右发生相变,这一相变很可能与其[(Si,Al)O_4]四面体中的Si发生有序排列有关。结合葡萄石的热膨胀性及压缩性,我们确定了葡萄石在高温高压下的稳定范围,这一结果对认识上地幔中含水矿物的状态以及地幔中水的来源有重要意义。     

马杏垣先生开合构造思想的提出、形成及最新进展

概述了马杏垣院士的学术生平与创建开合构造史实.开合构造提出是中国地球科学"百花齐放,百家争鸣"发展的结果;是黄汲清院士、张文佑院士、马杏垣院士领导的青年团队,在国际板块构造革命的新潮中,根据板块构造登陆存在的巨大问题,结合中国地质构造的特色,依据坚实的实际资料进行深入的全新探索.3位院士领导的团队又联合起来,进行开合构造的长期研究.2002年在构造地质专业委员会支持下,成立了开合构造研究组,召开了开合构造第一次学术研讨会,总结20多年研究成果,出了专刊书集.2015年研究组聚首北京,总结开合构造研究的新成果,并吸取地球物理研究新成果,准确地阐明开合构造的定义,提升了研究方法,总结了开合构造运动和开合构造体系特征,将构造动力来源初始点建立在古登堡面的开合构造转换带上,全新解析了转换带的重要作用,站在星球角度认识开合构造.最后,强调青年研究力量的培养,是开合构造走向世界的重要途径.     

中更新世转型时期南海北部上层水体结构演化特征——ODP1146站浮游有孔虫稳定同位素记录

文章以南海北部ODP1146站沉积物岩芯为研究材料,利用浮游有孔虫次表层水种Pulleniatina obliquiloculata壳体的氧、碳稳定同位素,结合该站位浮游及底栖有孔虫氧碳同位素数据,分析中更新世以来南海北部上层水体结构的演化。1.2 Ma以来ODP1146站P.obliquiloculata壳体δ^18O的变化可分3个阶段:1)1.2~0.9 Ma,冰期-间冰期变化幅度较小、主导周期为41 ka斜率周期;2)0.9~0.6 Ma,冰期旋回变化幅度逐渐增强、100 ka偏心率周期开始强化;3)0.6 Ma以来,冰期旋回呈现稳定且幅度较大的100 ka周期变化。0.9 Ma以来南海北部上层海水δ^18O的冰期旋回变幅增强,可能反映东亚冬季风在0.9 Ma之后显著强化。其中,表层水体δ^18O只在冰期变幅增强,P.obliquiloculata所反映的次表层水体δ^18O的变化幅度在冰期和间冰期都显著增强。约0.9 Ma浮游和底栖有孔虫δ^18O的100 ka周期几乎同时显现;但在0.9~0.6 Ma时期P.obliquiloculata的δ^18O偏心率周期更为显著、斜率周期的强度也更高。因此,冰期旋回周期转型及幅度变化两方面的证据共同反映温跃层结构演化在南海北部中更新世转型(MPT)气候转变过程中的特殊性。1.2 Ma以来ODP1146站P.obliquiloculata的δ^13C在0.02 Ma、0.49 Ma和0.99 Ma左右呈明显的碳重值,同时表层种-次表层种之间的δ^13C差值减小到近于0,可以解读为碳重值事件期间南海北部生产力相对减弱。     

Dynamic Relationship Between Entrainment Rate and Summer Monsoon in the Transition Area of Monsoon in the East of Northwest China

Entrainment rate refers to the ratio of surrounding air quality to air quality involved in rising unit distance, including turbulent entrainment and dynamic entrainment, which are applied to the boundary layer parametrization of convective clouds, the improvement of numerical model, the observation of cloud droplet spectral dispersion and the study of tropical cyclones.Based on the daily data at 07:00 and 19:00 every 10 m of five stations such as Minqin, Yuchong, Pingliang, Yinchuan and Yan'an from May to September during 2006-2016, combined with the daily observation data on the ground, the Entrainment Rates(ER) of different heights were calculated, and the relationships between ER and height in different regions, precipitation as well as monsoon during the monsoon period were further obtained. The main results were as follows:\mathrm{①} The ER was proportional to air temperature and saturated water vapor pressure, but inversely proportional to relative humidity. The relative humidity threshold of cloud was 65%. The higher the relative humidity threshold was, the lower the cloud height of different orders of precipitation was, and the cloud height was higher with the increase of rainfall. \mathrm{②}ER had obvious diurnal changes and regional differences: It was obviously smaller at 07:00 than at 19:00 from ground to 3 km, which weakened with the increase of height in the near surface , but strengthened with the increase of height above 500 m; From small to large, the monsoon affected area, the monsoon swing area and the non-monsoon area were in turn, and there was no regional difference above 3 km. \mathrm{③} ER was closely related to the intensity and property of precipitation in monsoon period. The ER weakened with the enhancement of rain intensity from near ground to below 600 m, but strengthened with the enhancement of rain intensity from 500 m to 2~3 km.From near ground to below 700 m, the ER of stable precipitation was strong, but that of convective precipitation was strong above 700 m. The convective precipitation had big saturated water vapor pressure and strong ER , while the stable precipitation had big saturated water vapor density, rich water vapor but weak ER. \mathrm{④}The relationship between ER and monsoon as well as its duration: From no monsoon to monsoon ER was weakened, the strongest maximum height was also decreasing. There was no significant difference in the duration of ER between the non-monsoon area and the monsoon affected area, but the longer the monsoon swing area lasted in the near ground layer, the smaller the ER was, while the opposite was at 1~2 km in the high altitude. \mathrm{⑤}The relationship between ER and the APO monsoon intensity index showed that: At 07:00, the ER strengthened with height from near ground to below 800 m, but weakened with height above 800 m,and the monsoon intensity was not related to the ER. At 19:00, the ER strengthened with the height near ground but weakened with the height above 300 m, and the stronger the monsoon was, the smaller the ER was. The ER weakened with the decrease of boundary layer height.