现代中国人起源的实证──颅骨特征的时空变化

本文用数学方法系统地检测了从早期智人到现代人时期中国人颅骨测量性特征的时空变化规律。结果显示,从早期智人到晚期智人的演化过程出现逆向变化、不连续;同时,长江以北的和长江以南的颅骨特征时态变化趋势也呈现显著差异。这两种现象的存在,揭示了现代北方的和南方的中国人可能由各自地区的早期智人演化而来。     

海岸线变化的地质指标体系

海岸带地质环境的演化集中表现是海岸线的变迁。基于对海岸线变迁的影响、演化方式、危害、防治对策等因素的分析,建立影响-状态-结果（CSR）的海岸线变迁的调查指标体系。在调查指标体系的基础上,抽取压力、状态、应对（PSR）指标, 建立中国海岸线变迁的监测指标体系。这对科学评价、监测和管理海岸带的环境具有重要意义。     

Assessing the results of scenarios of climate and land use changes on the hydrology of an Italian catchment: modelling study

Hydrological models are recognized as valid scientific tools to study water quantity and quality and provide support for the integrated management and planning of water resources at different scales. In common with many catchments in the Mediterranean, the study catchment has many problems such as the increasing gap between water demand and supply, water quality deterioration, scarcity of available data, lack of measurements and specific information. The application of hydrological models to investigate hydrological processes in this type of catchments is of particular relevance for water planning strategies to address the possible impact of climate and land use changes on water resources. The distributed catchment scale model (DiCaSM) was selected to study the impact of climate and land use changes on the hydrological cycle and the water balance components in the Apulia region, southern Italy, specifically in the Candelaro catchment (1780 km²). The results obtained from this investigation proved the ability of DiCaSM to quantify the different components of the catchment water balance and to successfully simulate the stream flows. In addition, the model was run with the climate change scenarios for southern Italy, i.e. reduced winter rainfall by 5–10%, reduced summer rainfall by 15–20%, winter temperature rise by 1·25–1·5 °C and summer temperature rise by 1·5–1·75 °C. The results indicated that by 2050, groundwater recharge in the Candelaro catchment would decrease by 21–31% and stream flows by 16–23%. The model results also showed that the projected durum wheat yield up to 2050 is likely to decrease between 2·2% and 10·4% due to the future reduction in rainfall and increase in temperature. In the current study, the reliability of the DiCaSM was assessed when applied to the Candelaro catchment; those parameters that may cause uncertainty in model output were investigated using a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results showed that DiCaSM provided a small level of uncertainty and subsequently, a higher confidence level. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青海三江源地区近50年来的气温变化

利用青海三江源地区12个气象站1961-2010年月气温资料及滑动平均、线性倾向估计、样条函数插值、Mann-Kendal检验等方法对气温变化的分析结果表明:(1)青海三江源地区及3个源区年、四季平均气温出现多次冷暖波动过程,但在统计意义上均呈显著增温趋势,2001年以后增温明显.其中,春、夏、秋季和全年平均气温从20...     

Benthic foraminifers in upper Quaternary sediments of the southern Bering Sea: Distribution and paleoceanographic interpretations

Composition and distribution of benthic foraminifers, being coupled with isotopic-geochemical data on Upper Pleistocene and Holocene sediments from the southern Bering Sea (Core GC-11; 53°31′ N, 178°51′E, water depth 3060 m), demonstrate variations in bottom water properties during the last 54 kyr. Their abundance increased to some extent during short periods corresponding to warm Dansgaard-Oeshger interstadials 14, 12, 8, and 2 of marine isotopic stages (MIS) 3 and 2. The first and second deglaciation phases separated by the Younger Dryas cooling episode are marked by significant abundance peaks of benthic foraminifers (an order magnitude higher than in the glacial period), although their share in community of benthic and planktonic foraminifers taken together decreases. Species typical of stable high-productivity areas gain the dominant position. A significant proportion of agglutinated species in the Holocene sediments is indicative of Ca ions deficiency that accelerates dissolution of carbonate tests up to their disappearance approximately 2.5–3 ka ago.     

河流入海物质通量对海、陆环境变化的响应

入海河流物质通量研究是陆—海相互作用和全球海洋通量联合研究计划的重要命题。我国是最早开展物质通量研究的国家之一。自20世纪90年代以来,国家自然科学基金项目和国家重大基础研究计划项目都开展了有关河流和边缘海物质通量的研究,即将开始的全国海岸带环境调查专项也把主要河流物质入海通量及其海洋环境效应研究作为主要内容之一。根据当前国内外河流物质通量研究的最新进展,较系统地阐述了河流入海物质通量的概念和对邻近大陆和海洋环境变化的响应。并在此基础上强调指出,河流入海物质通量是研究陆—海相互作用及其全球变化效应的重要参量。归纳了河流入海物质通量研究中需要解决的关键问题。     

北方涛动同北半球温带大气环流的遥相关(二)——季节变化

在以前工作的基础上,本文进一步分析了各个季节北方涛动和与其相联系的北太平洋海温同北半球温带大气环流遥相关的特征,并与南方涛动和赤道太平洋海温的结果进行了比较,发现它们同北半球温带大气环流的遥相关,不仅具有很强的地区性,而且具有明显的季节变化。 冬季,北方涛动和北太平洋海温与PNA型相关非常明显,且比南方涛动和赤道太平洋海温的更密切。除PNA型外,北方涛动还同500hPa高度的亚洲-北美(ANA)流型有联系。 夏季,PNA遥相关型的表现仍然非常清楚,但位置较冬季偏酉和偏北,并在北美西海岸具有特殊的分叉现象。     

根据Dobson和TOMS资料分析北京和昆明大气臭氧总量变化特征

用约２０年 Ｄｏｂｓｏｎ和ＴＯＭＳ资料来分析北京（３９.９３°Ｎ，１１６.４０°Ｅ）和昆明 （２５.０２°Ｎ，１０２．６８°）两地大气臭氧总量的变化特征，结果表明：（１）在１９７９－２０００年间北京大气臭氧长期变化趋势是－０．６４２ ＤＵ／年，而昆明在１９８０－２０００年间的趋势是－０.００９ ＤＵ／年；（２）北京和昆明两地大气臭氧都有很强的季节内变化（尤其冬季更强），与季节性变化强度相当；（３）在北京和昆明，由记录较短的大气臭氧资料分析得到的长期变化趋势，与较长记录得到的结果有显著差异；（４）在北京（中纬度）和昆明（低纬度）大气臭氧都有显著的准两年振荡信号；（５）两个站点大气臭氧的年际变化主要由长期趋势项和准两年振荡信号组成；（６）Ｄｏｂｓｏｎ仪测量得到的臭氧总量与ＴＯＭＳ资料非常一致。     

全球气候变暖背景下索马里急流变化的预估研究

索马里急流的变化对亚洲季风和气候变动具有重要的影响,未来索马里急流到底会如何演变？如何受全球变暖的影响？针对这个问题,文中利用IPCC第四次评估报告（IPCC AR4）的多个海气耦合模式的模拟结果,评估了多个模式在当前气候（20C3M）条件下对夏季低空索马里急流的模拟能力;预估模式在SRESA2排放情景下对21世纪（2010—2099）的索马里急流变化。研究结果表明,18个模式在现代气候条件下对索马里急流有较好的模拟能力;18个模式的集合平均结果预测夏季索马里低空急流在21世纪的变化过程是：初期（2010—2040）增强至减弱,中期（2050—2060）增加至最强,末期（2070—2090）减至最弱。与现代气候条件模拟结果相比,夏季索马里低空急流在未来气候变暖背景条件下是趋于减弱的过程,在21世纪末期最弱。研究还表明了夏季低空索马里急流的变化幅度与全球平均气温的变化幅度是一个非线性的关系,各模式对二者关系的描述存在不确定性,鉴于索马里急流对印度季风和东亚季风及中国气候的重要性,索马里急流的变化规律和未来演变是科学界特别需要深入研究的问题。     

细颗粒石英光释光测年:简单多片再生法

文中报道了细颗粒石英光释光测年中测量等效剂量的一种可靠技术——简单多片再生法。该技术的核心是引入单片再生法中试验剂量校正感量变化的功能,即在天然和再生多测片光释光信号测量后,再对各测片辐照以试验剂量,利用试验剂量的光释光信号响应对各测片归一化,同时校正可能发生的感量变化。从方法学上,这一技术具有以下优点1)试验剂量可以校正各测片的感量变化;2)对各测片归一化,克服了实验数据分散度的问题;3)通过对比简单多片再生法与单片再生法在测年中的表现,证实简单多片再生法可以克服单片再生法中可能发生的光释光信号的积累问题。最后,文中通过测定参考年龄样品,即洛川剖面末次冰期马兰黄土(L1)的开始堆积年龄,验证了简单多片再生法的可靠性,即在提高测量准确度和精度的同时,更节约时间