天山地区夏季极端降水特征及气候变化

基于1961—2007年天山地区32站的逐日降水资料,分析了夏季天山地区极端降水事件的气候分布和时间变化特征.结果表明:夏季天山地区的极端降水量、极端降水日和极端降水比分布存在明显的区域差异.局地极端降水频繁,平均3～4d就有1次发生,大范围极端降水较少发生.连续性极端降水以1d为主.极端降水量在天山南北坡均随地形增加而增多,地形高度对降水的影响,北坡要大于南坡.在相同高度范围内,北坡极端降水量基本均大于南坡.天山地区的极端降水事件呈增多趋势,在1970年代中后期至1980年代中前期,极端降水事件为低值期,而1990年代是高值期.     

河北唐山地区盛汛期短时强降水概念模型及物理量特征分析

利用2006-2013年区域自动站降水资料以及NCEP再分析资料,应用EOF分析和中尺度天气图分析等方法对唐山地区盛汛期短历时强降水的时空分布特征、天气学概念模型以及物理量特征进行研究.结果表明：唐山东北部是短时强降水的活跃区、西南部为不活跃区,但西南部极端短时强降水更强;存在5种降水空间分布类型,分别是“一致型”“西北多型”“东南多型”“东北异常偏多型”“东北异常偏少型”.700 hPa切变线是否断裂、副热带高压及高低空急流的位置以及高低空干湿区配置决定了降水分布;短时强降水发生时局地水汽丰富,暖云层厚度较大,垂直风切变较弱,存在一定的不稳定能量,强天气威胁指数较小、0℃层较高,大多数类型都有强的水汽辐合,但“东北异常偏多型”辐合较弱,其水汽主要来源于本地.     

地下水氘过量参数的演化

本文详细地介绍了提出水体氘过量参数 (d值 )的依据、源于大气降水的地下水氘过量参数 (d值 )的演化特点、影响因素、误差来源 ,并分析和讨论了应用中的一些问题。     

滇黔桂地区卡林型金矿床成因探讨

矿化剂和沉淀富集剂是成矿物质中的重要组成部分，也是人们分析成矿作用和建立成矿模式的基础。在分析滇黔桂地区金矿地质特征和成矿流体的基础上，提出该类矿床的矿质主要来源于被动陆缘沉积建造，促使金活化、迁移的矿化剂主要是盆地热卤素流体和有机质流体，促使金局部沉淀富集的沉淀富集剂则主要是沉积建造内和深源富硫的流体和热液改造的有机质。认为矿质、矿化剂和沉淀富集剂在有利容矿空间的耦合是形成滇黔桂地区卡林型金矿的主要成矿机制，并在此基础上讨论了卡林型金矿的成因和成矿模式。     

甘肃省春季降水的空间异常分布及年代际变化

利用甘肃省80个气象站建站至2012年3-5月的降水量资料, 分析了甘肃省春季降水的基本气候特征; 通过EOF、REOF、小波分析等方法, 对甘肃春季降水的时空特性进行了研究, 用Mann-Kendall检验法检验了甘肃春季降水序列是否存在突变现象. 结果表明, 甘肃春季降水空间分布极不均匀, 其空间分布特征是东南部为多雨区、西北部为少雨区. 甘肃春季降水在第一空间尺度上为全区一致, 在第二空间尺度上可分为2个自然气候区, 在第三空间尺度上可分为7个自然气候区. 从年代际变化来看, 1960年代是近50 a来降水最多的10 a, 1990年代是降水最少的10 a; 甘肃春季降水的年际变率十分显著, 降水最多的年份是最少年份的近5倍. 1961-2012年间甘肃春季降水发生了明显的突变, 1982年出现了一次增多趋势的突变, 1992年出现了一次减少趋势的突变. 5 a的短周期和18～19 a的长周期是其主要周期. 甘肃春季降水偏少(多)年份的500 hPa异常环流形势为极涡弱(强)、中纬度亚洲为一脊一槽型、东亚大槽深(浅)、南支槽浅(深).     

微生物地质工程技术及其应用

微生物地质工程技术是将微生物参与的生化过程加以控制和利用,来解决工程地质问题的一类新型岩土体水—力学特性改性技术。研究表明该技术具有低成本、环境友好、低能耗和过程可控的优点,是工程地质界近些年的一个热门研究内容,也是现代工程地质学科的重要发展方向。文章基于当前该技术取得的研究进展,系统总结了能被加以控制和高效利用的三种代表性微生物地质工程技术（微生物成矿作用、微生物膜作用及微生物产气作用）的原理及其应用领域。着重对研究最多、应用前景最广的微生物成矿作用改性岩土体力学特性、渗透特性、抗侵蚀性等工程性质及机理进行了阐述,并深入探讨了影响微生物成矿作用改性效果的关键因素（细菌种类、菌液浓度、环境温度、pH值、胶结液、土体性质及灌浆工艺）。此外,文章还详细论述了微生物成矿作用在地基处理、岛礁建设、防风固沙、水土保持、抗裂防渗、文物保护、地灾防治等领域的应用现状,并探讨了该技术当前面临的主要挑战及未来的重点研究方向。     

Quantitative reconstruction of Holocene precipitation changes in southern Patagonia

Holocene variations in annual precipitation (P_ann) were reconstructed from pollen data from southern Argentinian Patagonia using a transfer function developed based on a weighted-averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression. The pollen–climate calibration model consisted of 112 surface soil samples and 59 pollen types from the main vegetation units, and modern precipitation values obtained from a global climate database. The performance (r² = 0.517; RMSEP = 126 mm) of the model was comparable or slightly lower than in other comparable pollen–climate models. Fossil pollen data were obtained from a sediment core from Cerro Frias site (50°24'S, 72°42'W) located at the forest-steppe ecotone. Reconstructed P_ann values of about 200 mm suggest dry conditions during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition (12,500–10,500 cal yr BP). P_ann values were about 300–350 mm from 10,500 to 8000 cal yr BP and increased to 400–500 mm between 8000 and 1000 cal yr BP. An abrupt decrease in P_ann at about 1000 cal yr BP was associated with a Nothofagus decline. The reconstructed P_ann suggests a weakening and southward shift of the westerlies during the early Holocene and intensification, with no major latitudinal shifts, during the mid-Holocene at high latitudes in southern Patagonia.     

暴雨和降水偏态系数分析

采用统一的统计参数计算方法分析计算了全国0.51万~1.36万个雨量站历时为10 min~3 d的暴雨资料、210个站历时为1 d~90 d和1 a的降水资料的偏态系数和变差系数比值R_sv。探讨了皮尔逊Ⅲ型频率分布曲线的R_sv特性;分析了R_sv的地域分布、R_sv与雨量历时的关系,并研究了对R_sv有影响的多个因子。研究表明,在目前资料条件下,不宜对各个地区各种历时的暴雨频率分析均采用单一的R_sv值(3.5)。     

Chemo‐mechanics of cemented granular solids subjected to precipitation and dissolution of mineral species

This paper studies the chemo‐mechanics of cemented granular solids in the context of continuum thermodynamics for fluid‐saturated porous media. For this purpose, an existing constitutive model formulated in the frame of the Breakage Mechanics theory is augmented to cope with reactive processes. Chemical state variables accounting for the reactions between the solid constituents and the solutes in the pore fluid are introduced to enrich the interactions among the microstructural units simulated by the model (i.e., grains and cement bonds). Two different reactive processes are studied (i.e., grain dissolution and cement precipitation), using the chemical variables to describe the progression of the reactions and track changes in the size of grains and bonds. Finally, a homogenization strategy is used to derive the energy potentials of the solid mixture, adopting probability density functions that depend on both mechanical and chemical indices. It is shown that the connection between the statistics of the micro‐scale attributes and the continuum properties of the solid enables the mathematical capture of numerous mechanical effects of lithification and chemical deterioration, such as changes in stiffness, expansion/contraction of the elastic domain, and development of inelastic strains during reaction. In particular, the model offers an interpretation of the plastic strains generated by aggressive environments, which are here interpreted as an outcome of chemically driven debonding and comminution. As a result, the model explains widely observed macroscopic signatures of geomaterial degradation by reconciling the energetics of the deformation/reaction processes with the evolving geometry of the microstructural attributes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hazard Zoning for Landslides Connected to Torrential Floods in the Jerte Valley (Spain) by using GIS Techniques

The Jerte Valley is anortheast-southwest tending graben located in the mountainous region of west central Spain (Spanish Central System). Mass movements have been a predominant shaping process on the Valley slopes during the Quaternary. Present day activity is characterized as either `first-time failure' (shallow debris slides and debris flows) or `reactivations' of pre-existing landslides deposits.A delineation of landslide hazard zoningwithin the Valley has been carried out by using the detailed documentation of a particular event (a debris slide and a sequel torrential flood, which occurred on the Jubaguerra stream gorge), and GIS techniques. The procedure has had four stages, which are: (1) the elaboration of a susceptibility map (spatial prediction) of landslides; (2) the elaboration of a map of `restricted susceptibility' in the particular case of slopes that are connected to streams and torrents (gorges); (3) the elaboration of a digital model which relates the altitude to the occurrence probability of those particular precipitation conditions which characterized the Jubaguerra event and (4) the combination of the probability model with the `restricted susceptibility map', to establish `critical zones' or areas which are more prone to the occurrence of phenomena that have same typology as this one.