基于生态工程的海岸带全球变化适应性防护策略

在全球变化导致的海平面上升和灾害性气候等压力下,我国海岸带风暴潮、海岸侵蚀、地面沉降等灾害发生频率和强度正在增加,对海岸防护体系的需求日益提高。传统海岸防护工程维护成本高,更新困难,而且可能造成地面沉降、水质恶化、生态退化、渔业资源衰退等后果。基于生态工程的海岸防护提供了抵御海岸带灾害的新理念。修复和重建沙滩、红树林、沼泽湿地、珊瑚礁等海岸带生态系统,可以起到消浪、蓄积泥沙、抬升地面的作用,有效应对全球变化引发的灾害风险,形成更可持续的海岸防护体系。通过分析不同海岸防护技术的优势和限制,认为以生态工程为核心理念构建和管理我国海岸防护体系,才能起到保障社会经济发展和维持生态健康的最佳效果。     

Evolution and Morphodynamics of a Prograded Beach‐Ridge Foreland,Northern Baffin Island,Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Landward retreat (marine transgression) is a common response of coastal systems to rising relative sea level. However, given sufficient sediment supply, the coast may advance seaward. The latter response of gravel barriers has been recorded in parts of southeastern and northwestern Canada, where seaward‐rising sets of beach ridges are observed in areas of Holocene RSL rise. Cape Charles Yorke, northern Baffin Island, is a 5 km long gravel foreland characterized by seaward‐rising beach‐ridge crest elevations. The prograded morphology of the Cape Charles Yorke foreland is a prime example of coastal response to a combination of rising RSL and abundant sediment supply, an unusual and little‐documented pattern in the Canadian Arctic. The main gravel supply to Cape Charles Yorke is likely from eroding bedrock and raised marine deposits southwest of the foreland. Although not the dominant sediment source, the Cape Charles Yorke delta contributed to the formation of the foreland by sheltering it from easterly storm waves and providing an anchor point for the prograding ridges. The truncation of relict ridges by the modern shoreline suggests a recent regime shift from continuous deposition to predominant erosion. The cause and timing of this shift are unknown but could result from a recent dwindling in sediment supply, increased accommodation space, increased wave energy, and/or an accelerated rise of relative sea level.     

2011年宁夏川区一次高温天气分析

文章利用Micaps资料及数值预报产品,对2011年6月15日宁夏川区高温天气进行了分析,结果表明:此次高温天气主要影响系统是河西一带产生暖性高压东移形成河套高压。从低层到高层盛行暖平流是高温出现的直接因素,气流的上升下沉加快了暖流扩散。     

Impact of justice and solidarity variables on the acceptability of managed realignment

Sea-level rise due to climate change will have significant effects on coastal areas and populations. Adaptation policies recommend the managed realignment of the most vulnerable assets and activities. Despite their medium- and long-term benefits, these policies face significant friction due to social acceptability in the communities where they are implemented.

This article investigates the hypothesis that respecting principles of justice in the implementation of managed realignment should increase its acceptability. We compare preferences of those people who are exposed to the risk of climate-change-induced flooding and those who are not, as regards funding managed retreat policies and defining compensation criteria for assets at risk. The main theories of social justice provide the four principles included in the analysis: efficiency, need, responsibility and priority assigned to property rights.

A choice experiment survey was conducted with 258 residents of coastal and hinterland communities in the south of France. Four attributes were selected to define the managed realignment policy: the dialogue arrangements, the implementation period, the policy implementation schedule and the cost. The results show support for a relatively fast launch of these policies (within 15 years) but in stages and through a process of dialogue with the population. People's perceptions of the funding criteria reveal a preference for national solidarity. Finally, national funding of managed retreat policies and compensation criteria based on market prices have a significant positive influence on the acceptability of managed realignment policies, whereas introducing responsibility-based compensation criteria tends to favour the status quo over the adaptation policy.

Policy relevance

Prioritization of the funding criteria reveals the preference for national solidarity. Preferences for the justice criteria underpinning compensation reveal a great diversity of values. Besides implantation modalities, preferences for managed realignment policies depend on which level they are implemented at, on the expropriation criteria (the emphasis given to property rights, i.e. market price), on the attachment (people perceived as worst off, i.e. the property is their main residence rather than a second home or they have lower levels of income) and on the degree of responsibility (related to the date of purchase, i.e. on the information given at the time on the risk).     

Hydrogeological aspects of groundwater drainage of the urban areas in Kuwait City

Residential areas in Kuwait City have witnessed a dramatic rise in subsurface water tables over the last three decades. This water rise phenomenon is attributed mainly to over irrigation practices of private gardens along with leakage from domestic and sewage networks. This paper presents a comprehensive study for urban drainage in two selected areas representing the two hydrogeological settings encountered in Kuwait City. In the first area, a vertical drainage scheme was applied successfully over an area of 1 km². The system has been under continuous operation and monitoring for more than 4 years without problems, providing a permanent solution for the water rise problem in this area. The hydrogeological system has approached steady state conditions and the water levels have dropped to about 3·5 m below the ground surface. In the second area a dual drainage scheme, composing of horizontal and vertical elements, is proposed. Horizontal elements are suggested in the areas where the deep groundwater contains hazardous gases that may pose environmental problems. The proposed drainage scheme in the second area has not yet been implemented. Field tests were conducted to assess the aquifer parameters in both areas and a numerical model has been developed to predict the long‐term response of the hydrogeological system in the two areas under consideration. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat of the Nile Delta promontories, Egypt

Studies of the Nile Delta coast have indicated wide values of local subsidence, ranging from 0.4 to 5 mm/yr. Trend analysis of sea-level rise and shoreline retreat at two Nile Delta promontories have been studied. Records from tide gauges at Alexandria (1944–1989) and Port Said (1926–1987), north of the Nile delta coast, indicate a submergence of the land and/or a rise of the sea-level of 2 and 2.4 mm/yr, respectively.Dramatic erosion has occurred on some beaches of the Nile Delta. This is greatest at the tips of the Rosetta and Damietta promontories, with shoreline retreat up to 58 m/yr. Relationship between the shoreline retreat and sea level trends in terms of correlation analysis and application of the Bruun Rule indicates that the sea level rise has, by itself, a relatively minor effect on coastal erosion. The sea-level trend at the Nile delta coast is found to be only one of several effects on shoreline retreat. Major recent effects include a combination of cut-off of sediment supply to the coast by damming the River Nile and local hydrodynamic forces of waves and currents. Estimates of local future sea-level rise by the year 2100 at Alexandria and Port Said, respectively, is expected to be 37.9 and 44.2 cm. These expectations, combined with other factors, could accelerate coastal erosion, inundate wetlands and lowlands, and increase the salinity of lakes and aquifers.     

中国崛起的国际地缘战略研究

围堵与反围堵是世界历史上大国崛起的常态。本文立足于结构现实主义的国际关系原理,运用地理学的空间相互作用和区位选择等理论,探讨中国在和平崛起过程中权力一利益半径外延的必然性、与本文为竞争利益空间而发生的全球性战略互动,以及由此诱发的周边地缘风险。作者指出,由于区域的非均质性,中国向外实现战略突破时只能依循非均衡路径,即集中优势资源在空间阻滞效应较弱、"投资"回报较高的局部地区率先实现突破,并以此为"极轴"向其他地区辐射战略影响。在全球层面上,由于综合国力的结构性缺陷,目前中国宜把战略资源优先投放到"低政治"领域,运用渗透性较强的经济手段,争取尽快在非洲、拉美与西欧等地获取必要的战略立足点;而在区域层面上,中国应追求在"高政治"领域有所建树,选择与中国在地理上接近、文化亲缘性较强、战略互信度较高的国家进行对外拓展,如:巴基斯坦、缅甸、蒙古、塔吉克斯坦和哈萨克斯坦等地。两者相辅相成,共同组成了21世纪中国和平崛起的国际地缘战略。     

基于QTM的海平面上升分析与模拟

针对海平面上升影响范围分析与模拟这一国际前沿问题,通过研究基于球面四元三角网(QTM)的关键技术问题,包括复杂拓扑关系计算、LOD剖分、球面水淹分析、基于QTM的多分辨率的DEM数据组织方法和分析精度的相关性评定等,以.Net和Direct3D为开发工具,设计开发了基于QTM的海平面上升影响范围评估模型。该研究结果可为全球海平面上升影响的防灾减灾决策提供有效支撑,并推动了球面数据模型和球面格网拓扑分析的理论成果在全球变化预测相关领域的应用进展。     

中国近海海平面变化趋势的对比分析

本文分析了近40年的中国近海验潮站资料海表面高度的线性变化趋势,并与卫星高度计资料进行了对比。通过对验潮站资料的分析发现,中国海域无论是近40年(1970~2013年)、还是近20年(1993~2013年)海平面均显著上升。各海区近20年的海平面上升有加速的趋势,且各时段上升速率大于全球平均海平面上升率。但是,受到海平面的年际和年代际变化的影响,近10年海平面上升趋势放缓。同时,本文也分析了不同季节海平面变化的趋势,北部海域秋季最大,冬季最小;南海海域春季最大,秋季最小。通过AVISO资料和验潮站资料的对比可以发现,AVISO资料在描述近20年海平面变化的线性趋势上与验潮站资料接近,较大的差异主要是由验潮站地表发生升降引起的。同时,通过对比也发现了用验潮站资料估算海域平均的海平面高度变化会有一定的误差,在黄海、渤海、东海海域验潮站估计的数值偏高,而在南海海域则偏低。