Predictability of Interannual Variability in the Kuroshio Transport South of Japan Based on Wind Stress Data over the North Pacific

It is expected that a roughly two-year forecast of the Kuroshio transport variation can be made from a past record of wind stress data over the ocean, since it takes nearly ten years for the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave to traverse the entire basin in the midlatitude North Pacific (∼30°N). We therefore investigated the predictability using an ocean general circulation model driven by the wind stress data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. Referring to a hindcast experiment as the control run, we carried out fifteen forecast experiments, the initial conditions of which are taken from the hindcast experiment at intervals of two years during the period from the end of 1969 to the end of 1997. Each of the forecast experiments is driven only by wind stress in the year preceding each experiment. The forecasted Kuroshio transport anomaly south of Japan agrees better with the hindcasted one during the first two years of the forecast in most cases. In some cases, however, significant disagreements occur, most of which are likely due to larger unpredictable variations caused by wind stress anomalies near Japan. At the end of forecast year 2, the anomaly correlation coefficient is about 0.7, and rms of the forecast error is smaller than rms of the hindcasted anomaly. These results indicate that the prediction of the interannual variability in the Kuroshio transport could be made two years in advance at a statistically significant level. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

东亚温带气旋及其长期预报（二）：预报应用分析

本文以赤道东太平洋海温作为主导因子，分析其与东亚温带气旋的关系。得出：高海温多气旋，低海温少气旋的对应关系较为明显。并进一步对不符合这种主要关系的年份从环流型。下垫面海温等作了分类鉴别分析。     

在各类天气系统影响下石臼港沿岸波浪场的分布

本文查阅了从１９７３－１９８５，１３年的历史资料，对石臼港沿岸波浪场进行了详细的分类、统计分析和计算，提出了各类较强天气系统影响石（即指石臼港）的极端区域，同时获得了石港沿岸各类天气系统影响下的波浪分布特点以及波高计算式，为保障石港的生产及港口建设为石港的波了提供了有益的分析数据和预报手段。     

红海及亚丁湾间之海水交换

分析表观耗氧量、滴定碱度及总二氧化碳量等资料来研判红海及亚丁湾间之海水交换。结果显示,红海深层水的方解石及霰石饱和度均比亚丁湾和阿拉伯海深层水的饱和度高。红海全水柱之方解石和霰石都处於过饱和状态,亚丁湾和阿拉伯海中各深度之方解石亦呈过饱和状态,但霰石的饱和探度则大约在500m左右。分析深层水之生物体无机碳与有机碳的分解比值,可以发现此地区深层水中,大约有25％的总二氧化碳增加量是由无机碳酸钙溶解而来。     

1998年春深圳湾环节环沟藻赤潮及其发生原因的探讨

1998年4月23日至29日深圳湾发生了较大规模的环节环沟藻赤潮,面积逾200km2,细胞密度高达3.8×106 个/L。赤潮发生于大量降雨之后 ,高峰期水体盐度在20以下。在深圳河河口海域 ,虽然富营养化程度也较高 ,但由于悬浮物含量过高 ,浮游植物及环节环沟藻数量较少。赤潮期间 ,深圳湾没有发生死鱼现象 ,养殖牡蛎的大量死亡估计与赤潮无关     

Spatial variability in the primary productivity in the East China Sea and its adjacent waters

Primary productivity in the East China Sea and its adjacent area was measured by the¹³C tracer method during winter, summer and fall in 1993 and 1994. The depth-integrated primary productivity in the Kuroshio Current ranged from 220 to 350 mgC m⁻²d⁻¹, and showed little seasonal variability. High primary productivity (above 570 mgC m⁻²d⁻¹) was measured at the center of the continental shelf throughout the observation period. The productivity at the station nearest to the Changjiang estuary exhibited a distinctive seasonal change from 68 to 1,500 mgC m⁻²d⁻¹. Depth-integrated primary productivity was 2.7 times higher in the shelf area than the rates at the Kuroshio Current. High chlorophyll-a specific productivity (mgC mgChl.-a⁻²d⁻¹) throughout the euphotic zone was mainly found in the shelf area rather than off-shelf area, probably due to higher nutrient availability and higher activity of phytoplankton at the subsurface layer in the shelf area.     

非线性洋面温度反演

本文从辐射方程出发，简述洋面温度与亮度温度之间的非线性关系，进行非线性洋面温度反演的方案设计，用正演算法 计算出非线性洋面温度反演公式的回归系数，对样进行检验。     

南海沉积岩芯的地球化学研究

本文对南海中部陆坡区和海盆区的5个岩芯中的 Si,Al,Fe,Mn,Ca,Mg 和 CaCO_3成分做了分析,并对其分布特征与有关影响因素进行了讨论。受沉积区环境差异的影响,元素的分布具有区域性特征;受海区特定地理位置的影响,元素的分布呈现出过渡性特征(浅海到大洋的过渡);受沉积过程中环境变化的影响,元素的分布展示了周期性变化或旋回性。根据岩芯中元素的分布特征,并参考有关古地磁,氧碳同位素和钙质超微化石的测试分析结果,将本区岩芯划分为14层地球化学层,并将本区划分为两个沉积地球化学区,揭示了早更新世以来本区沉积环境的变化和存在的两种沉积模式。     

试论东海陆架盆地的基底构造演化和盆地形成机制

本文主要根据东海陆架盆地和周边的地质、地球物理资料,分析盆地的基底岩性特征、结构特征。认为东海陆架盆地的基底除元古界片麻岩外,还分布有一定范围的中生界及古生界。基底构造特征是纵向上多层次,横向上不均一,南北有别,东西分带。构造演化上经历了张、合、压、扭等复杂过程。