区域化变量的空间聚类分析

传统的聚类分析方法利用数据对平均值的偏差，研究变量之间的相互关系。当它应用于区域化变量的分类时，因缺乏对区域化变量的空间结构的考虑，对合理解释区域化变量之间的相互关系不利。空间聚类分析方法比较好地解决了这个问题。本文介绍了该方法的基本原理及其算法，并说明了它在非条件模拟及在某矿区中的应用情况     

A review of mathematical models of river planform changes

Different mathematical models of river planform changes exist or are being developed. They are reviewed here by discussing a two-dimensional depth-averaged model, various meander models and a model for the braided Brahmaputra-Jamuna River in Bangladesh. Much emphasis is placed on topics where further research is needed. It is concluded that the models help in understanding the underlying processes, but cannot yet be considered generally valid and easy-to-use software packages. In the hands of experienced geomorphologists or river engineers, however, some of the models do already form valuable tools which allow better predictions of future river planforms.     

Lichens: Lichenometric dating of diachronous surfaces

This paper describes software to accompany McCarroll, D. 1993. ‘Modelling late-Holocene snow-avalanche activity: incorporating a new approach to lichenometry’, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 18 , 527–539; and McCarroll, D., Matthews, J. A. and Shakesby, R. A. 1995. ‘Late-Holocene snow-avalanche activity in southern Norway: interpreting lichen-size-frequency distributions using an alternative to simulation modelling’, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 20 , 465–471.     

Hydrological control of flooding: Tuscany,October 1992

In the study of flash-flood occurrence in small catchments the lack of flow measurements is often one of the main limiting factors. Prior to estimating the forecasting potentialities and techniques for such events, an accurate reconstruction of past event flood dynamics is first required. This issue is here addressed by analyzing, with the use of a distributed hydrological model, the hydrometeorological conditions in which a severe flash-flood occurred, on October 1992, on a 48 square kilometers catchment in the Arno basin. Such an event was caused by the persistence of intense convective clusters on the background of widespread rain bands of frontal origin. The distributed hydrological model here adopted is devoted to simulate the evolution and the variability of the primary processes involved in the runoff cycle. Together with the hydrological model structure, other particular aspects of the event reconstruction procedure are discussed: the managing and processing of the information coming from different sensors, with different temporal and spatial resolutions; the identification of local precipitation dynamics (frontal or convective) within small areas of integrated radar and rain gauges data fields; the interpolation of rain gauge data on the basis of the radar-estimated spatial correlation. The results of the distributed modeling, concerning the estimate of the flood wave at various sites, are compared with analogous results obtained with simpler lumped models.     

Seismogenic model of earthquakes in groups in tectonic block and analysis for some features of earthquake precursory field

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Numerical simulation of the detachment dynamics in North China Basin

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Elastic models of seismic failure in the Valley of Mexico

Restricted parts of the Valley of Mexico have been plagued by swarms of small earthquakes during recent years. The cause of these events is puzzling, but they may relate to massive artificial changes in the hydrology of the lake-bed which underlies most of Mexico City. If the valley responds elastically, plane strain finite element calculations can be used to relate geologic and seismic structure to observed seismicity and overall stability of the valley. These calculations show that unstable zones and areas of local seismicity coincide if the triggering mechanism of the seismicity is related to variations of pore pressure and water load.In order to make such a connection it is necessary to ascribe the generating mechanism of the seismicity to the density and elastic modulus anomalies associated with the valley structure, and to suggest that the phenomenon that triggers this seismicity is related to changes in water content of the near surface formations.     

Direct and Indirect pCO2 Measurements in a Wide Range of pCO2 and Salinity Values (The Scheldt Estuary)

Recent improvements in both Infra-red spectroscopy and equilibrator techniqueshave allowed to determine, for the first time, pCO₂using simultaneously and continuously both the direct and indirect methods in an estuary where pCO₂ values range from 500 to 8500 atm and salinity from 0 to 30. Our results show that both methods are in excellent agreement in the wholeestuary (r² = 0.999, n = 1075, p < 0.0001). Thus, the NBS (US National Bureau of Standards) scale, although inadequate for seawater samples, is appropriate for estuarine waters and can be applied with confidence to calculate pCO₂.     

Simulations of strong ground motion in SW Iberia for the 1969 February 28 (Ms= 8.0) and the 1755 November 1 (M∼ 8.5) earthquakes – II. Strong ground motion simulations

This is the second paper of a series of two concerning strong ground motion in SW Iberia due to earthquakes originating from the adjacent Atlantic area. The aim of this paper is to use the velocity model that was proposed and validated in the companion paper for seismic intensity modelling of the 1969 ( M _s= 8.0) and 1755 ( M = 8.5–8.7) earthquakes.
First, we propose a regression to convert simulated values of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) into Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) in SW Iberia, and using this regression, we build synthetic isoseismal maps for a large ( M _s= 8.0) earthquake that occurred in 1969. Based on information on the seismic source provided by various authors, we show that the velocity model effectively reproduces macroseismic observations in the whole region. We also confirm that seismic intensity distribution is very sensitive to a small number of source parameters: rupture directivity, fault strike and fault dimensions. Then, we extrapolate the method to the case of the great ( M = 8.5–8.7) 1755 earthquake, for a series of hypotheses recently proposed by three authors about the location of the epicentral region. The model involving a subduction-related rupture in the Gulf of Cádiz results in excessive ground motion in northern Morocco, suggesting that the source of the 1755 earthquake should be located further west. A rupture along the western coast of Portugal, compatible with an activation of the passive western Iberian margin, would imply a relatively low average slip, which, alone, would could not account for the large tsunami observed in the whole northern Atlantic ocean. A seismic source located below the Gorringe Bank seems the most likely since it is more efficient in reproducing the distribution of high intensities in SW Iberia due to the 1755 earthquake.