基于BGM的不同繁殖长度对集合预报的影响

利用T63L9全球谱模式和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 对BGM方法中增长模的繁殖长度对集合预报效果的影响进行研究。结果表明:与控制预报相比, 不同繁殖长度的集合预报都能使预报效果得到一定程度的改进, 特别是第4天预报以后, 改进程度随预报时效而稳步提高。三组不同繁殖长度的集合预报对控制预报的改进存在差别, 分析结果表明:繁殖长度为2 d的集合预报明显效果最差, 而繁殖3 d和4 d的集合预报差别并不明显。对集合Talagrand分布以及离散度的初步分析表明, 繁殖长度取为3 d似乎最为合理。     

我国沿海棘头梅童鱼（Collichthys lucidus）群体遗传结构的AFLP分析

利用AFLP技术分析了我国沿海棘头梅童鱼8个地理群体（山东荣成、江苏南通、启东、上海芦潮港、浙江温州、瑞安、福建福州和广州番禺）的遗传结构特征。10对引物组合在8个群体160尾个体中共扩增出272个位点,多态位点72个,多态位点比例为26．47％。8个地理群体的多态位点比例、Nei遗传多样性指数分别为8．82％-15．...     

磁梯度探测在工程基桩桩长检测中的应用

磁梯度探测方法可以高效、高精度探测具有铁磁性的地下障碍物深度,因此在工程基桩长度测试中有良好的效果。     

河西走廊下垫面粗糙度实测值与模拟值的差异性分析

利用甘肃省河西地区17个风塔观测资料和风向风速标准差法,计算了风塔处的下垫面粗糙度,并与中尺度数值模式ARPS中使用的粗糙度参数进行了比较分析。结果表明,数值模式中使用的粗糙度值和实况具有一定差异,其使用的粗糙度定义方案并不能准确地反映出下垫面粗糙度和非均一性特征。差异最大出现在草原下垫面上,可达375%,且差异程度随下垫面植被复杂程度增加。     

A simple method of estimating rock mass porosity and permeability

Conclusion A simple method of estimating fracture porosity and permeability based on empirical relations between fracture aperture andJRC andJCS can be developed. This shows very close correlation with existing data, using simple discontinuity models. There is quite a good correlation between fracture porosity and permeability and depth for larger initial apertures.     

交通流量分析与实时最优控制

通过将车流量的增大或减小转化为路长权重的变化。将交通流量的动态问题转化为静态问题，用解决最短路问题的Dijkstra方法，给出交通流量实时最优控制的可行性模型及其有效算法。     

缝长,尺度对水压致裂应力测量结果的影响规律

本文从弹性力学、断裂力学的基本理论出发,结合室内实验和野外观测结果研究了尺度、缝长对水压致裂应力测量结果的影响规律。研究结果表明,室内实验样品的孔径比不应大于四分之一,最好小于十分之一,较大的绝对尺度可以使实验结果变得稳定。野外实际测量除了满足上述要求外,裂缝单翼长度不应小于十倍的钻孔半径,否则测不到可靠的封闭压力。据此,进行大尺度水压致裂室内模拟实验对于提高压裂技术,完善水压致裂应力测量理论是非常必要的。     

Correlations in aftershock and seismicity patterns

Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration of clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California.     

黄海南部小黄鱼洄游分布及种群结构特征

Monthly fishery survey data of the small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis in the southern Yellow Sea from2003 and 2013 were employed to evaluate the variation in the resource distribution and biological characteristics(especially body length and sex ratio) in the population on a decadal scale.The results indicated that the small yellow croaker migrated from the Shawai fishing ground to the Dasha fishing ground in spring and was mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the Dasha fishing ground in April and May.Larimichthys polyactis in the Dasha fishing ground migrated eastward to offshore wintering grounds in autumn and reached the central Dasha fishing ground in October and November.The small yellow croaker entered the western waters of the Shawai fishing ground in winter.A large number of age 0+ fish occurred in the Shawai and Jiangwai fishing grounds in October of 2003 and 2013.The body lengths of the spawning stock and wintering stock in 2013 were larger than those in 2003,and the monthly sex ratios(female to male) were significantly less than 1 in both years.The monthly distribution of this fish in the southern Yellow Sea was consistent with a previous finding that "the stock migrated between the wintering grounds in the west of Jeju Island and the Lüsi spawning grounds" but tended to move more northward,with the spawning grounds extending outward.In the past decade,body length variation experienced a decline after an increase,rather than a steady decrease.The sex ratio in the single-stick stow net showed a tendency to increase over the decade,but was either less than or more than 1 depending on the fishing gear;therefore,further studies should be conducted to determine the sex structure.     

采集参数对音频大地电磁法二维非线性共轭梯度反演结果的影响研究

非线性共轭梯度(NLCG)算法广泛应用于音频大地电磁法(AMT)二维反演中,并且取得了良好效果.本文以Rodi(2001)提出的大地电磁法二维NLCG反演理论和算法为基础,开展AMT野外数据采集参数(测线长度、点距、频点数)对二维反演效果的影响研究.通过低阻理论模型的试验结果表明:野外数据采集参数的选择应该以探测目标体的规模、深度以及背景电阻率为依据,测线长度应大于目标体宽度和探测深度的两倍以上,异常体上方测点数及探测深度范围内的频点数至少大于三个.