Towards medium-term (order of months) morphodynamic modelling of the Teign estuary, UK

The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model.     

地震次生火灾研究进展

由于双重灾种叠加，地震次生火灾曾经带来过巨大生命财产损失，并始终严重威胁人类社会。梳理历史上几次重大地震次生火灾情况，归纳地震次生火灾的成灾与蔓延研究成果，讨论现有研究成果中常用的分析手段和研究方法；从工程结构和装备设施，以及灾害区划单元两个层面总结分析了地震次生火灾的风险与损失评估研究成果；从民用建筑、油气化工设施、核电站、灾后安置点与林业等多个方面探讨地震次生火灾的预防和控制研究进展。采用文献计量学方法对近二十年以"地震次生火灾"为主题的中文文献进行统计，并分析研究热度与地震事件的联系。     

Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Niño3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

小波检验方法在国内业务模式中的最新应用研究进展

本文主要介绍小波检验方法在国内区域业务模式中的最新应用研究进展,该方法被应用于模式降水预报的个例检验和统计检验,并针对两种解决二元域限制问题的技术方案进行阐述和讨论。结果表明：D8小波可以提供一种从不同降水率阈值和空间尺度对模式定量降水预报进行评估的方案,该方案首先对预报场和分析场进行阈值获得二进制误差场,再对二进制误差场进行尺度分解,从而可以评估模式在各个降水率阈值和空间尺度上的预报技巧和偏差。统计检验结果显示模式对较大尺度降水事件表现出较高的预报技巧评分,较小尺度降水事件和强降水的预报技巧评分相对较低,并且总体上呈现出预报降水事件多于观测降水事件的特征。Padding方案和Tiling方案对应的模式统计检验结果并无明显差异,由于后者不对原始降水场做任何改变,因此是一种更为稳健和可靠的方案。     

Development of a skill assessment tool for the Korea operational oceanographic system

A standard skill assessment(SA) tool was developed and implemented to evaluate the performance of operational forecast models in the Korea operational oceanographic system.The SA tool provided a robust way to assess model skill in the system by comparing predictions and observations,and involved the computation of multiple skill metrics including correlation and error skills.User-and system-based acceptance criteria of skill metrics were applied to determine whether predictions were acceptable for the system.To achieve this,the tool produced a time series comparison plot,a skill score table,and an advanced summarized diagram to effectively demonstrate the multiple skill scores.Moreover,the SA was conducted to evaluate both atmospheric and hydrodynamic forecast variables.For the atmospheric variables,acceptable error criteria were preferable to acceptable correlation criteria over short timescales,since the mean square error overwhelmed the observation variance.Conversely,for the hydrodynamic variables,acceptable root mean square percentage error(e.g.,p erms) criteria were preferable to acceptable error(e.g.,erms) criteria owing to the spatially variable tidal intensity around the Korean Peninsula.Furthermore,the SA indicated that predetermined acceptance error criteria were appropriate to satisfy a target central frequency(fc) for which errors fell within the specified limits(i.e.,the fc equals 70%).     

综合地质超前预报在齐岳山隧道施工中的应用

在长大隧道施工过程中,由于工程地质条件的复杂性和不确定性,常会出现如塌方、涌水等地质灾害,为了规避这些地质灾害的发生,在施工过程中实施综合地质超前预报就显得十分有必要。本文以宜(昌)—万(州)铁路齐岳山隧道PDK366+020~PDK365+984段为实例,详细介绍地质分析-TSP地震勘探-超前水平钻探相结合的综合地质超前预报方法,结果证明,该方法具有较高的精度和准确度。     

New advances in the study of Alpine glaciations

The European Alps is the birthplace of glaciology and in particular Quaternary glaciology and for over one hundred years has been a model region for studying mountain glaciations. In this paper, we review the achievements from this region, which will benefit glaciological studies of the Tibetan Plateau, China. According to new evidences of glaciofluvial de- posits discovered in valleys and forelands of the Alps, researchers have progressed from an original four Pleistocene gla- ciations to seven glaciations： Biber, Donua, Gtinz, Haslach, Mindel, Riss and WOrm. The earliest one Biber possibly oc- curred between the Pliocene and Pleistocene, but the chronology before Riss is still in doubt. Recent years, Riss and Wtirm glaciations have been supported by a large numbers of cosmogenic exposure dating. In particular, cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating has been carried out for different moraine boulders in numerous valleys, which reveals a series of climatic change events, and they are comparable to post-glacial age records of northern Europe. The advancement of glaciological studies in the Alps is important in promoting glaciological research in the Tibetan Plateau.     

测绘职业技能鉴定命题技巧初探

由于当前测绘知识技术更新速度极快,使得测绘职业技能鉴定题库也在不断地更新当中,这就要求命题工作者除了掌握应有的测绘专业技术知识之外,还要不断探索、深入研究命题技术和命题技巧.本文的研究,为进一步实现测绘职业技能鉴定命题工作科学、客观、统一、规范具有一定的现实意义.     

国外钻井工具与仪器新进展及国内发展建议

页岩气、致密油气、深井超深井油气和深水油气的勘探开发对钻井工具与仪器提出了更高要求。本文介绍了国外钻井工具与仪器的新进展,钻井工具包括高效破岩钻头（Aegis铠装合金钻头、Crush＆Shear?混合式钻头、智能自适应钻头、StrataBlade*凹面金刚石元件钻头和HyperBlade*双曲面金刚石元件钻头）、辅助破岩工具（Navi-Drill DuraMax井下马达、NitroForce?高性能螺杆和耐温300 ℃螺杆钻具）和循环短节（iCWD智能循环短节、iDisc智能循环和丢手工具、MOCS G2循环短节和JetStream?RFID循环短节）,而钻井仪器包括旋转导向工具（Lucida高端旋转导向系统、RST旋转导向系统、VectorEDGE旋转导向系统、HALO高性能旋转导向系统和NeoSteer@bit导向系统）和随钻测量仪器（TruLink*高分辨率动态MWD、IriSphere*随钻前视LWD、HEX200℃高温LWD和Quest^TM随钻陀螺测斜仪）。在此基础上,对国内钻井工具与仪器的未来发展提出了建议。最后指出我国应尽快完成核心钻井工具与仪器的国产化,继续加大低成本替代技术的研究力度,以实现经济有效开发。     

三叠纪年代地层与中国建阶

国际地层委员会三叠系分会(SubcommissiononTriassicStratigraphy,简称STS)成立后的第一件工作就是建立全球统 一的三叠纪年代地层划分方案.以国际地质对比规划项目IGCP-4(特提斯地区的三叠系)所取得的研究成果为基础,经过STS 专家的深入研讨,采用投票表决的方式于1991年确定了将三叠系划分为3统7阶的国际年代地层格架.随后的焦点集中于各 阶界线层型剖面和点位(GlobalStratotypeSectionandPoint,简称GSSP)的选定工作.但时至今日只确定了3个阶的GSSP,而 且只有三叠系底界,即印度阶底界的GSSP获得的研究最多,且应用广泛;另外2个阶(拉丁阶和卡尼阶)底界的GSSP仍以传 统的菊石作为首选定义标志,其推广可应用性还待实践检验.其他4个阶的界线层型选定工作正在推进中,但都存在一些困 难,其中尤以奥伦尼克阶界线层型的选定工作面临重大挑战.鉴于国际年代地层研究工作所面临的困境,全国地层委员会组织 专家于2000年提出了中国的年代地层划分和建阶方案,并在全国范围开展研究和推广应用.由于三叠纪时期中国处于从海向 陆的重要转折时期,海、陆相地层在中国都有广泛发育,因此提出了海、陆相两套中国三叠纪年代地层划分和建阶方案.经过十 多年的建阶研究和应用实践,中国三叠纪年代地层建阶方案逐步得以改进和完善,促进了中国三叠纪地层规范化研究,为相 关科学研究和实践应用奠定了基础,也推动了国际相关领域的科学研究.