西藏措勤地区地层古生物研究新进展——兼论古生物学在新一轮地质大调查中的作用

在西藏措勤地区进行的1：25万区调中,地层古生物的研究取得一些新进展,在原来被认为属上新世陆相沉积的“乌郁群”上部发现丰富的有孔虫化石,根据有孔虫化石组合,这套地层应属阿普特期至赛诺曼期的深浅海沉积;在早白垩世至晚白垩世早期的角砾凝灰岩中首次发现大量硅化木化石,表明在此期间西藏气候温暖湿润,并有大量森林被毁于频繁的火山喷发;在拉果错-川巴断层南、北两侧的下二叠统 存在不同的化石群落,其南侧为代表浅海环境的珊瑚-Ting群落,北侧为深浅海的菊石群落,由此可以看出古生物化石研究在区调中的重要作用。     

On Phase Shifts In Periodic Well Fluctuations

Summary. For the case of a well completely penetrating a confined aquifer of infinite extent, an analysis is made of the flow processes in the well-aquifer system due to periodic pressure variations like earth tides and barometric tides. It is shown that the earth tides lead to well fluctuations with a negative phase difference (phase lag), while the barometric tides cause well fluctuations with a positive phase difference (phase advance).
In both cases the amplitudes and phases of the well fluctuations depend on frequency and are therefore different for the individual components of the tidal spectra. These frequency characteristics need to be studied more carefully than is the case now. A schematic model of a device is described that could not only be used for this purpose, but also for the determination of the specific storage S _s and the conductivity k. the method would be closely related to the well-known slug or bail tests.     

中尺度数值预报中不同初值方案的检验对比

采用WMO推荐的标准化检验方法对两套初值方案进行检验，一套为使用T106L19全球中期模式预报场作为初猜场的cressman逐步订正客观分析方案（T106）；一套为直接插值客观分析方案（OBS）。通过对比分析发现：（1）反映大尺度环流场的要素，例如，300hPa风场、500hPa高度，T106初值方案略好于OBS。（2）空间尺度较小的要素，例如，850hPa温度、湿度等，OBS略优于T106；在比湿预报场中，低层预报优于高层，但850hPa比湿预报出现正的系统误差，随着预报时效的延长，正系统误差加大。（3）在风场的预报中，低层预报总体不如高层好，U风分量的预报有负的系统性误差，V风分量有正的系统性误差。同时对责任中初值预防的降水进行TS评分，评分结果表明，T106的总体评分高于OBS，但T106初值方案的空报率高于OBS，而OBS初值方案的漏报率高于T106。     

利用超前锚杆短循环法解决在砂砾石地层中隧洞挂口的技术难题

介绍在四川省荥经县泗坪罗家湾电站桥溪沟支洞工程的施工中，利用超前锚杆短循环法解决在砂砾石地层中挂口难题的一些具体措施和关键技术。     

岩体结构面网络模拟技术研究进展

主要介绍了岩体结构面网络模拟技术的研究进展，通过近期的研究，结果面网络模拟技术得到了进一步的完善与发展，特别是三维模拟技术的出现使岩体结构面网络模拟技术更加实用，表现出比二维模拟更大的优势，可以较好地解决空间岩体力学问题，具有良好的应用前景。     

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to theex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971–1988.     

Geostatistical analysis of longwall face roof convergence data

Summary Roof convergence and the rate of convergence are regionalized variables; the geostatistics can thus be applied to a set of underground observations. This investigation shows that the removal of a slice of coal induces roof movement. The rate of convergence is highest just after the coal removal and decreases with time. The immediate advance of a rigid powered roof support decreases the total convergence for a complete production cycle. On the other hand, the timing of the advance of a relatively soft support element has no influence on the total convergence for a complete production cycle.     

“八五”勘查技术进步

本文系统的介绍了“八五”期间中国地质勘查技术院在航空物探技术、地面物探技术、井中物探技术、化探技术以及遥感地质技术所取得的勘查技术进步。     

Trends and short-term prospects for copper demand

In recent years, the rate of consumption of minerals and energy has been increasing. Herein, a few fundamental components of mineral consumption including population growth, rising standard of living, advances in technology, and economic growth are analyzed. Copper is one of the best resources for illustrating the growth of metal consumption and components of that growth because statistical data for copper are quite comprehensive. Among the various factors examined, an index of rising standards of living is the most significant factors explaining growth of copper consumption.     

洪水计算的新进展——古洪水研究

尽管中国有悠久历史，但利用历史洪水展延洪水频率曲线以求稀遇设计洪水，仍感困难和不可靠，古洪水研究可得到数千年的大洪水资料。使洪水的考证期大为扩展，因而得以从根本上避免现行数字外延洪水顺频率曲的弊端，成果稳定可靠，为洪水计算工辟了一条新的途径，本文论述了古洪水研究的原理方法和我国四大河流应用古洪水研究的经验与成果。