Assessing the Seasonal Predictability of Summer Precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin with Multiple APCC Models

Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Huaihe River basin is evaluated in this paper on the basis of 23-year(1981-2003) retrospective forecasts by 10 climate models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) Climate Center(APCC) multi-model ensemble(MME) prediction system.It is found that the summer rainfall variance in this basin is largely internal,which leads to lower rainfall predictability for most individual climate models.By dividing the 10 models into three categories according to their sea surface temperature(SST) boundary conditions including observed,predicted,and persistent SSTs,the MME deterministic predictive skill of summer rainfall over Huaihe River basin is investigated.It is shown that the MME is effective for increasing the current seasonal forecast skill.Further analysis shows that the MME averaged over predicted SST models has the highest rainfall prediction skill,which is closely related to model’s capability in reproducing the observed dominant modes of the summer rainfall anomalies in Huaihe River basin.This result can be further ascribed to the fact that the predicted SST MME is the most effective model ensemble for capturing the relationship between the summer rainfall anomalies over Huaihe River basin and the SST anomalies(SSTAs) in equatorial oceans.     

复杂山地环境下雷暴天气中的地基微波辐射计影响距离分析

利用2017年2月-2018年10月地基微波辐射计和无线电探空仪、闪电和雷达数据, 首先评估了微波辐射计温度和绝对湿度在不同高度的探测性能, 微波辐射计和无线电探空仪不同高度的温度的相关系数为0.800~0.985, 绝对湿度的相关系数为0.600~0.916;微波辐射计温度的标准差为3.9~6.1℃, 绝对湿度的标准差为0~4 g/m3, 无线电探空仪温度的标准差为4.2~6.1℃, 绝对湿度的标准差为0.1~4.2 g/m3; 微波辐射计和无线电探空仪温度绝对误差的标准差为1.06~2.90℃, 绝对湿度绝对误差的标准差为0.08~2.02 g/m3。二者K指数相关系数为0.945。其次利用K指数上升和下降到35℃的时次和不同距离闪电开始和结束时次做相关性分析, 结果表明在30 km处具有最大的相关系数(0.864), 这可能就是微波辐射计温度和湿度在复杂山地下雷暴天气中能够代表的大气层结的有效距离。最后统计分析了微波辐射计K指数上升达35℃时, 90%上游移向微波辐射计的雷暴回波(30 dBZ雷达回波超过-15℃高度层)距离微波辐射计平均距离为35.3 km, 移到微波辐射计附近平均需要92.8分钟, 局地雷暴(40 km以内)生成需要138.2分钟。      

层序地层学研究现状及进展:模式多样化

1977年至1988年,层序地层学从诞生逐渐走向成熟,并且形成了一套完整的概念体系和工作方法,这段特殊时期被称为层序地层学的Exxon时代.之后,将最大海泛面作为层序界面的R-T层序模式则代表了后Exxon时代模式多样化的开始.随后,对Exxon层序地层学概念体系不协调的认识则代表了由模式多样化所表征的后Exxon时代...     

MSP技术在任楼煤矿巷道超前探测中的应用

煤矿巷道中的断层、陷落柱和煤岩体结构破碎带等不良地质条件不但影响掘进施工,同时也存在突水、瓦斯突出等安全隐患。断层、陷落柱等地质异常构造与围岩在密度、速度等物性方面存在较大差异,因此可利用多波多分量地震反射法探测煤矿井下异常构造。近两年来,任楼煤矿针对矿井巷道前方的未知隐伏构造做了多次MSP震波超前探测。以Ⅱ7322机巷为例,在巷道j19点前76m处,分别于巷道的左帮及右帮对迎头前方进行了两次超前探查,2次探测解释的2个异常界面位置分别为82m、101m和85m、102m,实际揭露2个断层位置为82m、109m,探测结果与实际基本相符,实现了对掘进巷道内地质构造带的准确超前预测预报。     

国外城市交通系统的空间研究进展

城市交通空间研究历史悠久,最早追朔到19世纪初,整体上经过了萌芽探索（19世纪初至19世纪末）、深化发展（20世纪初至50年代）、快速发展（20世纪60年代至80年代）和丰富全面（20世纪90年代以来）四个阶段：研究领域主要集中于交通—城市空间耦合、城市交通空间通达性、空间句法及形态、空间复杂性等方面,其中交通—城市空间耦合研究历史久远,贯穿始末,空间通达性兴起于20世纪60年代,空间句法集中于20世纪70-80年代,空间复杂性则起步较晚,兴盛于21世纪初;整体上,国外城市交通空间复杂性研究薄弱,集成复杂系统科学理论／方法,结合GIS地计算的城市交通空间复杂性规律研究势必成为未来研究的重心和中心。     

区域土地利用变化驱动力研究进展与展望

剖析了区域土地利用变化驱动力的概念和内涵,通过对国内外土地利用变化驱动力研究进行系统的分析比较,归纳了土地利用变化的主要驱动因素,概括了驱动力的基本特性,着重分析了土地利用与土地覆被变化的驱动力机制及其模型研究进展,并总结了各个模型的特点及其适用范围。最后提出了未来土地利用变化驱动力研究的发展趋势,以期为土地利用/覆被变化研究提供借鉴。     

浅谈英语快速阅读

快速阅读在英语学习中是一个很重要的内容。要具备这种能力 ,不仅要了解快速阅读的技巧和方法 ,而且还要多读多练。文章介绍了如何快速阅读英语的方法。     

Mechanism and forecasting method of persistent extreme weather events: review and prospect

Persistent extreme weather is of high disaster causing capability, represents a great threat to the safety of both people and property and results in substantial economic losses. However, the underlying mechanism of such high impact weather remains unclear, and related forecasting methods are quite under studied currently. Based on the comprehensive reviews of the relevant studies about persistent extreme weather, the prediction of such events within the period during 1～2 weeks in advance is believed to be a significant scientific issue. For this scientific problem, the studies of atmospheric low frequency process, the interaction between multi scale systems, the forcing of complicated underlying surface and sea land atmosphere interactions are necessary to be performed. These multi perspective studies will favor the final establishment of the corresponding forecasting theory and method based on the combination of dynamical prediction and statistical predication. It is hoped that the deficiencies in systematic studies about persistent extreme weather may be made up through pertinent studies, which will prolong the time length of forecasting and increase the prediction precision of such high impact events.     

Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Blocking by the NCEP Climate Forecast System

Daily output from the hindcasts by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) is analyzed to understand CFSv2's skill in forecasting wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere.Prediction skills of sector blocking,sector-blocking episodes,and blocking onset/decay are assessed with a focus on the Euro-Atlantic sector(20°W-45°E) and the Pacific sector(160°E-135°W).Features of associated circulation and climate patterns are also examined.The CFSv2 well captures the observed features of longitudinal distribution of blocking activity,but underestimates blocking frequency and intensity and shows a decreasing trend in blocking frequency with increasing forecast lead time.Within 14-day lead time,the Euro-Atlantic sector blocking receives a higher skill than the Pacific sector blocking.Skillful forecast(taking the hit rate of 50%as a criterion) can be obtained up to 9 days in the Euro-Atlantic sector,which is slightly longer than that in the Pacific sector(7 days).The forecast skill of sector-blocking episodes is slightly lower than that of sector blocking in both sectors,and it is slightly higher in the Euro-Atlantic sector than in the Pacific sector.Compared to block onset,the skill for block decay is lower in the Euro-Atlantic sector,slightly higher in the Pacific sector during the early three days but lower after three days in lead time.In both the Euro-Atlantic and the Pacific sectors,a local dipole pattern in 500-hPa geopotential height associated with blocking is well presented in the CFSv2 prediction,but the wave-train like pattern that is far away from the blocking sector can only maintain in the forecast of relative short lead time.The CFSv2 well reproduces the observed characteristics of local temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with blocking.     

稳定分层水库水质的季节性变化特征及扬水曝气水质改善

为了解深水型水库水体的热分层结构、水质特征及扬水曝气系统对水质的改善情况,对水温、溶解氧、pH、叶绿素a、营养盐、溶解性有机碳浓度等水质指标进行为期一年的监测,探讨各项指标的季节性变化规律.结果表明,黑河水库水体呈单循环混合模式,在3-10月形成自然热分层,水体的热分层导致相应水库水质明显分层.黑河水库为偏碱性水体,叶绿素a、总磷、总氮、铵态氮和溶解性有机碳浓度平均值分别为2.21 μg/L、0.022 mg/L、1.32 mg/L、0.20 mg/L和2.93 mg/L,表明黑河水库处于中-富营养状态.热分层期底部水体溶解氧浓度在0～7.9 mg/L之间,平均值为2.9 mg/L,氮磷质量比在41～100之间,表明黑河水库是一个底部季节性缺氧、高营养盐型水库.在水库自然热分层末期,应用扬水曝气技术,不仅改善了底部水体的厌氧/缺氧环境,抑制了厌氧/缺氧条件下内源污染物的释放和藻类的增殖,而且还使得水库水体提前混合,实现了强制混合与水体自然混合过程的有机衔接,延长了水质持续改善的作用时效,有效地改善了水环境,保障了安全供水.