不同方法评价喀斯特煤矿区农田土壤重金属生态风险比较

采用TCLP法、内梅罗综合污染指数、嵌入Igeo综合污染指数法等方法对贵州织金县某煤矿区周边农田土壤重金属进行评价。土壤中Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni、Hg和Zn的含量范围分别为0.79～2.08 mg·kg-1、144.20～464.40 mg·kg-1、91.63～187.50 mg·kg-1、48.13～104.47 mg·kg-1、0.14～2.33 mg·kg-1、144.35～265.89 mg·kg-1,所有土壤样点的Cd、Cr、Cu和Ni含量均已超过国家土壤环境质量二级标准,部分土壤样点的Hg和Zn含量超过二级标准。TCLP法评价结果所有土壤样点均未受到重金属污染;内梅罗综合污染指数法评价结果为农田土壤重金属生态风险处于安全水平;嵌入Igeo综合污染指数法评价结果表明,90%的土壤达到中度污染以上,其中65%的土壤处于中度污染,25%的土壤受到中度至重度污染;潜在生态危害指数法评价表明,所有土壤样点重金属均处于轻微生态风险水平。针对不同评价方法得出的结果存在差异的情况,在评价土壤重金属污染状况时,应根据评价目标的差异选择合适的评价方法。      

Use of LiDAR-derived DEM and a stream length-gradient index approach to investigation of landslides in Zagros Mountains,Iran

This paper presents an approach to stream length-gradient index analysis to identify tectonic signatures. The graded profile of the Dez River in Zagros Mountains, Iran, indicates that the area has been tectonically disturbed, and it triggers landslide hazards. The high-gradient index shows that a steeper gradient could be potentially a signature for landslides identification. The digital surface models acquired by airborne LiDAR were used in this study to generate the HRDEM. Our result shows a great potential for improving landslide investigations by implementing stream length-gradient index derived from the HRDEM in conjunction with the landslide inventories data-set in the GIS environment. We also identified a correlation between the stream length-gradient index and the graded topographic profile with slopes and landslides. This empirical approach was verified by geodata analytics and landslide inventories data-set in conjunction with field observations. This study has identified the locations of high-gradient indices with susceptible to landslides.     

Examining human heat stress with remote sensing technology

Heat stress as an environmental hazard which can seriously affect productivity, health, or even survival of individuals has long been studied. Despite the endeavors that have been made to address the issue quantitatively with various heat stress indices, they are often measured at scatter sites. This research devotes to revealing human heat stress within continuous space with remote sensing technology. The study began with the retrieval of dry-bulb temperature from land surface temperature (LST) with empirical models. As wet-bulb temperature was calculated from dry-bulb temperature and relative humidity, discomfort index (DI) as an indicator of heat stress was revealed for the study area at 1 km spatial resolution for three summer days. Results indicated that DI can be derived within continuous space with remotely sensed data, and its spatial distribution can be dramatically affected by relative humidity. Further comparison between DI and LST indicated that LST as a widely utilized indicator of surface thermal condition fails to address human heat stress as environmental factors such as relative humidity are not taken into account.     

成层软土地基预固结处理后桩基水平承载力估算方法

目前通过对软土地基预加固处理来提高桩基水平承载力已被工程界认可,但如何在工程前期设计过程中估算软土地基预处理后桩基水平承载力提高值仍是技术难点。基于此,参考Bowles[1]的地基土水平抗力计算式,同时考虑成层软土地基预排水固结处理影响,通过数学推导,推求出根据原状软土室内土工试验抗剪强度指标及预加固处理时间,估算软土地基预处理后桩基水平承载力提高值的实用计算方法。考虑桩侧土弹塑性屈服影响,推导出成层软土中水平受荷桩弹塑性解析解及塑性区深度的计算式,给出了桩顶水平位移、桩身最大弯矩的无量纲计算式及相关计算源代码。依托于浙江省某水闸桩基工程案例,根据提出的计算方法对桩基水平承载力、桩顶水平位移及桩身最大弯矩等性状进行预估计算,并与地基预处理前、后现场试桩检测值进行验证对比,认为桩基水平承载力、桩顶水平位移及桩身最大弯矩等预估计算成果与工程现场试桩的检测值较接近,对类似工程设计具有较好的参考价值。     

基于多源遥感影像的长春市城市建成区提取

夜光遥感影像记录的城市灯光与人类活动密切相关,已广泛应用于城市信息提取。珞珈一号作为新一代夜光遥感数据源,比以往的夜光数据具有更高的空间分辨率和光谱分辨率,可以更清晰地表达城市建成区范围和内部结构。本文利用珞珈一号夜光遥感影像,通过人类居住指数（human settlement index, HSI）、植被覆盖和建筑共同校正的城市夜光指数（vegetation and build adjusted nighttime light urban index, VBANUI）及支持向量机（support vector machine, SVM）监督分类3种方法对长春市城市建成区进行提取,并与利用NPP/VIIRS（suomi national polar-orbiting partnership/visible infrared imaging radiometer suite）夜光遥感影像、采用同样方法得到的结果对比。结果显示：本文提出的VBANUI提高了传统植被覆盖校正的城市夜光指数（vegetation adjusted nighttime light urban index, VANUI）的提取精度,使用珞珈一号夜光遥感影像通过VBANUI提取的城市建成区结果最优,其Kappa系数为0.80,总体分类精度为90.74%;使用珞珈一号和NPP/VIIRS夜光遥感影像通过HSI按最佳阈值提取城市建成区的Kappa系数分别为0.75和0.72,总体分类精度分别为88.27%和86.54%;复合数据的SVM监督分类法中Landsat-NDBI、Landsat-NDBI-VIIRS、Landsat-NDBI-LJ和Landsat-NDBI-LJlog的Kappa系数分别为0.602、0.627、0.643和0.681,总体分类精度分别为81.11%、81.52%、82.25%和84.48%。研究结果表明：3种提取方法下,均为使用珞珈一号夜光遥感影像的结果优于使用NPP/VIIRS夜光遥感影像的结果,证明相比于NPP/VIIRS夜光遥感影像,珞珈一号夜光遥感影像更适用于城市尺度的建成区范围提取。     

滑坡对降雨响应的多指标监测及综合预警探析:以赣南罗坳滑坡为例

降雨量和位移是当前降雨型滑坡监测预警最常用的指标。然而,降雨量和位移监测结果只能反映降雨作用下滑坡的变形情况,不能揭示滑坡内在物理力学性状对降雨的响应。因此,除降雨量和位移监测之外,建立包括体积含水率、基质吸力等反映滑坡动态演化过程的关键指标监测体系必将成为今后更真实地把握滑坡内在演化趋势、更准确地建立滑坡综合预警判据的最有效手段。笔者对赣南地区典型降雨型滑坡进行了多指标监测及综合预警示范研究。结果表明:(1)在降雨条件下滑坡土体内部体积含水率、基质吸力和温度等多指标均产生有规律的动态响应;(2)随着降雨的持续,滑体体积含水率与基质吸力的变化均具有显著的滞后现象;(3)体积含水率和基质吸力变化速率与滑体位移具有显著的正相关性;(4)滑体温度分布变化规律受大气温度和体积含水率的共同影响。以实测数据的滑坡稳定性分析为基准,在考虑实际降雨入渗深度与滑坡稳定性的关联度上,建立了包括日降雨量、体积含水率增加速率、基质吸力减小速率以及位移速度多元指标预警方法体系,提出了基于关键指标综合预警体系及确定方法,旨在为降雨滑坡准确预警提供新模式。     

Brittleness index predictions from Lower Barnett Shale well-log data applying an optimized data matching algorithm at various sampling densities

The capability of accurately predicting mineralogical brittleness index(BI)from basic suites of well logs is desir-able as it provides a useful indicator of the fracability of tight formations.Measuring mineralogical components in rocks is expensive and time consuming.However,the basic well log curves are not well correlated with BI so correlation-based,machine-learning methods are not able to derive highly accurate BI predictions using such data.A correlation-free,optimized data-matching algorithm is configured to predict BI on a supervised basis from well log and core data available from two published wells in the Lower Barnett Shale Formation(Texas).This transparent open box(TOB)algorithm matches data records by calculating the sum of squared errors be-tween their variables and selecting the best matches as those with the minimum squared errors.It then applies optimizers to adjust weights applied to individual variable errors to minimize the root mean square error(RMSE)between calculated and predicted(BI).The prediction accuracy achieved by TOB using just five well logs(Gr,pb,Ns,Rs,Dt)to predict BI is dependent on the density of data records sampled.At a sampling density of about one sample per 0.5 ft BI is predicted with RMSE～0.056 and R2～0.790.At a sampling density of about one sample per 0.1 ft BI is predicted with RMSE～0.008 and R2～0.995.Adding a stratigraphic height index as an additional(sixth)input variable method improves BI prediction accuracy to RMSE～0.003 and R2～0.999 for the two wells with only 1 record in 10,000 yielding a BI prediction error of＞±0.1.The model has the potential to be applied in an unsupervised basis to predict BI from basic well log data in surrounding wells lacking mineralogical measure-ments but with similar lithofacies and burial histories.The method could also be extended to predict elastic rock properties in and seismic attributes from wells and seismic data to improve the precision of brittleness index and fracability mapping spatially.     

2017年辽宁省春夏季精细化气象干旱监测评估

基于辽宁省1114个国家级和区域级地面台站1961年以来的逐日气温和降水观测资料,利用距离平方反比法差值生成了1717个乡镇的气象资料序列,采用气象干旱综合监测指数统计分析了辽宁省2017年4—8月精细化到乡镇的气象干旱特征。结果表明:2017年辽宁省春夏季异常高温,同时降水异常偏少,致使气象干旱不断发展;干旱在4月5日前从中部和北部开始,4月末扩展到西部,5—6月再向东南发展,波及88%的乡镇,7月以来气象干旱程度开始减轻;气象干旱持续时间长的乡镇主要集中在中部和北部,最长持续时间153d;受气温偏高和降水过程的影响,中度以上气象干旱面积呈阶段性变化,且极端干旱的发展伴随高温时段。由于气象干旱不同于农业干旱,在开展为农服务时要因地制宜采取应对措施。     

CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon "Hato", the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of "Hato", the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on"Hato". The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of "Hato"included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of"Hato"was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.     

华北雨季开始早晚与大气环流和海表温度异常的关系

本文利用国家气候中心的1961~2016年华北雨季监测资料、美国国家环境预报中心/大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）的大气再分析资料、NOAA海表温度资料,分析了华北雨季开始早晚的气候特征,然后利用合成分析、回归分析等方法,研究了华北雨季开始早晚与大气环流系统和关键区域海表温度的关系。结果表明,56 a来华北雨季开始最早在7月6日,最晚在8月10日,1961~2016年华北雨季开始平均日期是7月18日。华北雨季开始时间具有显著的年际变化,但雨季发生早晚的长期变化趋势不太明显。华北雨季开始早晚与西太平洋副热带高压（简称副高）、东亚副热带西风急流、东亚夏季风等环流系统的活动关系密切,当对流层高层副热带西风急流建立偏早偏强,中层西太平洋副高第二次北跳偏早,低层东亚夏季风北进提前时,华北雨季开始偏早,反之华北雨季开始偏晚。华北雨季开始早晚与春、夏季热带印度洋、赤道中东太平洋海表温度关系显著且稳定,当Ni?o3.4指数和热带印度洋全区海表温度一致模态（IOBW）为正值时,贝加尔湖大陆高压偏强,副高偏强偏南,东亚夏季风偏弱,导致华北雨季开始偏晚;当海表温度指数为负值时,则华北雨季开始偏早。