Evaluating climate model outputs for hydrological applications

Citation Wilby, R. L. (2010) Evaluating climate model outputs for hydrological applications – Opinion. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1090–1093.     

Integrated surface water–groundwater modelling in the context of increasing water reserves of a regional Sahelian aquifer

Abstract

Despite the Sahelian drought of the 1970s–1990s, the unconfined aquifer in southwest Niger exhibits a multidecadal increase in groundwater reserves. Recent changes in land surface conditions have enhanced runoff and thus indirect groundwater recharge below endorheic ponds. This paper presents a model-based investigation of surface runoff and groundwater recharge at mesoscale (～5000 km²). A new lumped-conceptual runoff model applicable to the large number of ungauged endorheic catchments is specially developed, derived from an existing fine-scale, physically-based hydrologic model. Runoff simulated for sites identified as groundwater recharge sources are used to derive recharge forcing for a Modflow-based model of the aquifer. The rising water table trend and its spatial distribution over the period 1992–2003 are generally well simulated, albeit smoothed year-to-year dynamics. Comparison with alternative methods of recharge estimation suggests, however, that there may presently exist more recharging sites and/or contributing surfaces than those considered so far.

Citation Massuel, S., Cappelaere, B., Favreau, G., Leduc, C., Lebel, T. & Vischel, T. (2011) Integrated surface water–groundwater modelling in the context of increasing water reserves of a regional Sahelian aquifer. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1242–1264.     

Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River,west coast of India

Abstract

A hydrological modelling framework was assembled to simulate the daily discharge of the Mandovi River on the Indian west coast. Approximately 90% of the west-coast rainfall, and therefore discharge, occurs during the summer monsoon (June–September), with a peak during July–August. The modelling framework consisted of a digital elevation model (DEM) called GLOBE, a hydrological routing algorithm, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB), an algorithm to map the rainfall recorded by sparse raingauges to the model grid, and a modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. A series of discharge simulations (with and without the SCS method) was carried out. The best simulation was obtained after incorporating spatio-temporal variability in the SCS parameters, which was achieved by an objective division of the season into five regimes: the lean season, monsoon onset, peak monsoon, end-monsoon, and post-monsoon. A novel attempt was made to incorporate objectively the different regimes encountered before, during and after the Indian monsoon, into a hydrological modelling framework. The strength of our method lies in the low demand it makes on hydrological data. Apart from information on the average soil type in a region, the entire parameterization is built on the basis of the rainfall that is used to force the model. That the model does not need to be calibrated separately for each river is important, because most of the Indian west-coast basins are ungauged. Hence, even though the model has been validated only for the Mandovi basin, its potential region of application is considerable. In the context of the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) framework, the potential of the proposed approach is significant, because the discharge of these (ungauged) rivers into the eastern Arabian Sea is not small, making them an important element of the local climate system.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Suprit, K., Shankar, D., Venugopal, V. and Bhatkar, N.V., 2012. Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 686–704.     

Aeolian component records in lacustrine sediments and its atmospheric circulation significance for evolution of Qarhan salt lake,NE Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

正1 Introduction The Qarhan Playa of Qaidam Basin is located at the northeastern QinghaiTibetan Plateau(QTP),in which thick lacustrine and evaporate sediments deposited since the late Pleistocene(Chen et al.,1985,1986).As surrounded by capacious Gobi and yardang fields and suffered strong westerly-northwesterly wind,abundant aeolian materials were trapped in these sediment sequences in the     

印度洋浮游生态系统的特点及其对全球变暖的响应

与太平洋和大西洋相比,印度洋有独特的季风和洋流系统和由此驱动的浮游生物分布及生产规律.在全球变暖的背景下,印度洋的变暖趋势比太平洋和大西洋更为显著,是研究变暖对海洋浮游生态系统影响的热点海区之一.文章结合国内外文献,评述印度洋浮游生态系统的现状、特点及对全球变暖的响应,包括印度洋的浮游生物地理分布、南北印度洋浮游生态系...     

Heinrich event 4 and Dansgaard/Oeschger events 5–10 recorded by high-resolution speleothem oxygen isotope data from central China

A 50-yr resolution reconstruction of climate and environment variability during the period 43–14 ka was developed using 26 high-precision U/Th dates and 390 oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) data of a stalagmite (SJ1) collected from Songjia Cave in central China, which is close to the northwestern boundary of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). The δ¹⁸O record in SJ1 displays significant millennial-scale changes that correlate well in timing and duration with Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events 5–10 and Heinrich event 4 (H4) identified in high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Four ²³⁰Th dates constrain the H4 event precisely to the period of 39.7 to 38.3 ka. Notable centennial variations of the ASM activity could be observed within the H4 event. The magnitude and duration of D/O event 4.1 recorded in SJ1 are similar to those archived in east China but different from those documented in southwest China, suggesting that the manifestation of this event may be regionally different. The timing, duration and structure of D/O events 5–10 and Heinrich event 4 suggest that temperature changes in both hemispheres have exerted significant influences on the ASM variations in central China.     

不同季风时节北京近地面大气颗粒物中7Be和POPs的变化

2009年8月至2010年7月在东亚季风区中纬度城市北京连续一年以每周3天的时间尺度同步采集近地面大气中气溶胶样品并测定了宇宙射线成因核素7Be 和8种有机氯农药（OCPs）、7种多氯联苯（PCBs）的浓度。7Be浓度全年平均值为（8.39±0.49） mBq/m^3,显著高于欧洲地区具有相同纬度的城市。最高值出现在9月（15.64 mBq/m^3）,最低值出现在5月（1.35 mBq/m^3）。夏季7Be浓度值较低,春、秋季浓度值较高。对大气气溶胶中7Be进行不同季风时节的比较要比季节性的比较可更好地揭示7Be的变化规律及其来源。夏季的低值与东南季风导致的多降雨气象条件有关。秋季的高值为大气环流异常所致。OCPs和PCBs总浓度（∑OCPs和∑PCBs）呈现夏季低,秋、冬季高的现象。西风和西北风为北京市大气气溶胶中POPs浓度最高的季风时节。较高氯代PCBs （PCB153和PCB180）在冬季占主导优势。较高的PCB101和PCB118可能来自北京周边的污染源。在部分时期7Be与DDTs和δ-HCH有显著的相关性,而在春季和夏季PCB-101与7Be有很好的相关性。     

Anthropogenic origin of a change in the fire-climate relationship in northern China after ~2000 yr BP: Evidence from a 15,500-year black carbon record from Dali Lake

There are debates regarding whether a wet and warm climate or a dry and cold climate dominated Holocene fire activity in northern China on the millennial timescale, and when human activities overtook climate change as the dominant control on fire occurrence in the region. Here we present a high-resolution fire history for the past ~15,500 years from a sediment core in Dali Lake, located in the foothills of the Greater Hinggan Mountains, one of the areas of highest fire risk in China. The results demonstrate that fire activity was rare during the last deglaciation (~15,500-11,700 yr BP), gradually increased at the beginning of the Holocene, and reached its highest level during ~9000-5000 yr BP, after which there was a decreasing trend. However, after ~2000 yr BP this decreasing trend ended, and the most prominent feature is a peak in fire activity during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Overall, fire activity corresponded well to changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation on the millennial timescale during ~15,500-2000 yr BP, but this relationship changed after ~2000 yr BP. We propose that fire activity in northern China on the millennial timescale during ~15,500-2000 yr BP was dominated by the biofuels reserve under the control of the EASM precipitation. In contrast, with the intensification of human activities after ~2000 yr BP, human activity caused a ~62%-73% increase in fire activity, which altered the fire-climate relationship that had previously prevailed in northern China. Our results indicate that a wet-warm climate (increased EASM intensity), rather than a dry-cold climate, was the dominant control on fire activity in northern China during 15,500-2000 yr BP on the millennial timescale, but that human activities played an important role in fire occurrence after ~2000 yr BP.     

Potential Correlation between the Decadal East Asian Summer Monsoon Variability and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

This study discusses the potential contribution of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)and the evident correlation between the positive PDO and"Southern flood and Northern drought(SFND)"summer rainfall pattern over East China.The mechanism behind this contribution is also discussed.     

The Long-Term Field Experiment Observatory and Preliminary Analysis of Land-Atmosphere Interaction over Hilly Zone in the Subtropical Monsoon Region of Southern China

To improve current understanding of the water cycle,energy partitioning and CO2 exchange over hilly zone vegetative land surfaces in the subtropical monsoon environment of southern China,a long-term field experiment observatory was set up at Ningxiang,eastern Hunan Province.This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the field observations at the observatory collected from August to November 2012.Results show that significant diurnal variations in soil temperature occur only in shallow soil layers(0.05,0.10,and 0.20 m),and that heavy rainfall affects soil moisture in the deep layers(≥ 0.40 m).During the experimental period,significant diurnal variations in albedo,radiation components,energy components,and CO2 flux were observed,but little seasonal variation.Strong photosynthesis in the vegetation canopy enhanced the CO2 absorption and the latent heat released in daylight hours;Latent heat of evaporation was the main consumer of available energy in late summer.Because the field experiment data are demonstrably reliable,the observatory will provide reliable long-term measurements for future investigations of the land-atmosphere interaction over hilly land surfaces in the subtropical monsoon region of southern China.