2016年10月大气环流和天气分析

2016年10月北半球极地地区极涡呈偶极性分布,极涡强度较常年同期偏强。中高纬环流为４波型,西太平洋副热带高压位置明显偏西、偏北,强度偏强。10月全国平均降水量55.4 mm,较常年同期（35.8 mm）偏多55%,为1951年来同期最多;全国平均气温10.9℃,较常年同期（10.3℃）偏高0.6℃。月内我国主要出现了6次区域性暴雨天气过程,其中2次是台风莎莉嘉和海马导致,2次是受低涡、切变线影响。冷空气活动频繁,出现5次过程,较常年偏多。京津冀地区出现4次雾 霾天气过程。今年第21号台风莎莉嘉于10月18日在海南省万宁市以强台风级别登陆,今年第22号台风海马于10月21日在广东省汕尾市登陆,均造成重大影响。     

区域数值预报系统在北京地区的降水日变化预报偏差特征及成因分析

为了研究北京快速更新循环同化预报系统(BJ-RUCv2.0)在北京地区降水日变化的预报偏差特征及其成因,利用2012—2015年夏季BJ-RUCv2.0系统第2重区域(3 km分辨率)预报结果和北京地区122个自动气象站逐时观测数据以及观象台探空观测资料,分析模式对北京地区降水日变化预报偏差的区域性特征和传播特征,研究模式局地环流预报偏差特征及其对降水预报偏差的可能反馈机制。研究结果表明,BJ-RUCv2.0系统多个更新循环的预报在北京平原地区均存在夜间降水漏报问题,降水预报偏差表现为模式预报降水在西部山区降水偏多,预报降水雨带难以在平原地区增强发展,造成了模式降水在傍晚山区偏多而夜间平原地区降水明显偏少。通过分析模式局地环流预报偏差及其响应机制发现,由于白天平原地区近地层偏暖偏干,山区底层偏冷中层偏湿,造成了山区-平原地区间的温度梯度强度偏强且强温差出现时间提前,西部山区午后降水偏多;由于平原地区地面气温预报持续偏高,入夜后偏北风难以到达平原地区,造成了山区-平原间的地形辐合线位置偏北,影响山区降水雨带向平原地区移动,同时平原地区近地层内水汽持续偏低,抑制降水雨带在东移过程中的发展,造成模式在平原地区夜间降水预报容易出现漏报。模式冷启动所用的GFS资料土壤湿度在北京平原地区明显小于实际观测,是模式预报偏暖偏干的可能原因之一。     

2017年1月大气环流和天气分析

2017年1月大气环流主要特征如下：北半球极涡呈绕极型分布,中心气压较常年偏低,欧亚中高纬度环流呈两槽一脊型;南支槽强度与常年接近,平均位置位于90°E以西附近,副热带高压较常年接近。1月,全国平均降水量为12.4 mm,较常年同期偏少6%。全国平均气温为-3.4℃,较常年同期（-5.0℃）偏高1.6℃,为1961年以来历史同期第三高值。月内,我国出现主要冷空气过程、主要降水过程以及雾 霾天气过程各2次,其中2016年12月30日至2017年1月6日雾 霾天气过程是1月范围最广、持续时间最长、强度最强的雾 霾天气过程。     

松花江流凌预报方法

为了充分开发、利用水利资源，在分析大气环流与流凌关系的基础上，采用统计方法，对松花江流凌进行了气候分析，确定了流凌与气象因子的关系，为航运局航道局提供航运决策，收到了明显的经济效益和社会效益。     

EXPERIMENTS OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION BY THE OSU/NCC GCM FOR SUMMER SEASON IN CHINA

By using of an ensemble method,the tests of rainfall for the predictions of the seasonal,interseasonal and annual scales in China during 1982—1995 have been made by the atmosphericGCM/mixed layer ocean and ice model(OSU/NCC).Contrasts between forecasts by the OSU/NCC and the observations show that the model has a certain ability in the prediction ofprecipitation for summer over China in all of the three different time scales.And it indicates thatthe interseasonal prediction is the best among the forecasts of three scales.It is also indicated thatthe prediction is especially acceptable in certain areas.     

亚欧及北太平洋相当正压层高度的分析及数值模拟

本文利用相当正压层方法,分析了亚欧及北太平洋中纬度地区47个站点的相当正压层高度,其结果与文献[1]类似。计算表明:亚欧及北太平洋的相当正压层高度平均位于359hPa,略去高原站点后,平原地区的平均高度为374hPa。相当正压层是一个波动很大的不同气压的曲面,并随地区和季节变化较大。高原和西风急流的强弱可能都是其影响因子,尤其是高原的作用值得进一步探讨。数值模拟也证实了300hPa上Rossby波比500hPa效果好。     

Testing theories of the vertical stratification of the ACC against observations

Recent theories of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) suggest that its lateral and vertical stratification is controlled by its baroclinic instability: eddies in the ACC not only feed-off the available potential energy stored in sloping isopycnals but play a central role is setting up that stratification. Simple theory makes predictions about how the depth of the thermocline in the ACC depends on the surface winds, the air–sea buoyancy flux and transfer by baroclinic eddies. By examining gridded hydrographic data, here we test some of these predictions against observations. We show that, to a remarkable degree, the buoyancy field in the ACC decays exponentially with depth beneath the mixed layer. The e-folding depth increases equatorward, from less than 500 m on the poleward flank of the ACC to greater then 1000 m on its equatorial flank, in a manner that is broadly consistent with the theory.     

厄尔尼诺与太阳黑子和大气环流的关系及其预报

通过对1956-1996年11次厄尔尼诺现象与太阳黑子、大气环流的关系分析,发现有一定规律,用概率统计方法建立起厄尔尼诺的预报模式。     

宁夏夏季极端降水日数的变化规律及其成因

利用1961—2015年宁夏逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及NOAA海温资料,分析了宁夏夏季极端降水的变化规律及其成因。结果表明:1)55年来宁夏夏季极端降水日数呈微弱减少趋势,但变率在1994年发生了由大到小的气候突变。各月极端降水的变化存在差异:6月极端降水日数在1982年发生突变,突变后日数显著增多;7月极端降水日数呈微弱减少趋势;8月极端降水日数在1995年发生突变,突变后日数显著减少。2)500 h Pa高度场上6月中国华北—东北与西太平洋上的偶极型异常分布、8月西西伯利亚—蒙古—副热带地区的遥相关波列和EAP异常分布型以及700h Pa上宁夏6月偏东风增强和8月偏北风增强,是导致极端降水事件变化的直接原因。3)6月菲律宾附近海温偏高,有利于500 h Pa高度距平场形成华北—东北与西太平洋的"+-"偶极型异常分布;8月拉尼娜事件的发生,有利于我国呈现西低东高分布型,激发EAP遥相关波列,冷空气与水汽条件相配合,从而导致宁夏极端降水事件频发。     

The Ocean Circulation of Chatham Sound,British Columbia,Canada: Results From Numerical Modelling Studies Using Historical Datasets

Chatham Sound, a semi-enclosed inland sea located off northern British Columbia, is an important waterway due to many proposed industrial activities related to the Port of Prince Rupert, along with its high levels of marine productivity. The oceanographic forcing in Chatham Sound is complex due to a combination of large tides, seasonally strong winds, and large freshwater discharges. Although much oceanographic data have been collected over the past six decades, past studies of the oceanographic regime of the full Chatham Sound area have been very limited. Using these extensive forcing datasets, high-resolution three-dimensional numerical modelling using the Coastal Circulation model for Sediment transport was conducted to investigate the tidal and wind-driven currents in the stratified waters of Chatham Sound. The numerical study shows the progression of the river-dominated lower salinity near-surface waters being advected northward, especially on the eastern side of Chatham Sound, with more saline waters on the western side of the Sound, especially in areas of exchanges with the waters of Hecate Strait through side channels. These surface circulation results are in good agreement with the large-scale representation of the outer diffuse Skeena River plume as seen in high-resolution Landsat satellite imagery. The model was operated over a representative year with four seasonal model runs. Southern Chatham Sound was found to be dominated by large tidal currents. Seasonal variations of residual flow were also investigated. Significant correlation between non-tidal current speeds and Skeena River discharges was found in the Skeena River delta area and through narrow tidal channels in southern Chatham Sound. In other offshore areas, non-tidal currents were found to be constrained near the surface and driven mainly by winds.