气候变化背景下湖北省水稻高温热害变化规律研究

利用历年气象资料,运用数理统计方法,分析了湖北省1951—2010年水稻高温热害的动态变化,探讨了气候变化背景下高温热害的演变趋势与规律。结果表明,鄂东部、江汉平原部分地区水稻高温热害发生趋于频繁,且除西南部地区外的湖北省其他地区水稻高温热害最大概率出现的时间均有明显的提前,甚至每10a提前1d以上。最后,利用ArcGIS对湖北省的水稻高温热害变化趋势和风险程度进行了区划。     

书籍如何在中国古代民间社会中发挥信息交流作用

从传播学的角度看,书籍具有信息交流的作用。在古代民间社会中,由于各方面条件的限制,书籍信息交流作用的发挥除了体现在传统的家学渊源中以外,主要表现为读书人之间的借阅、互借、借抄、赠予等行为。此外,少数书主慷慨大度地开放藏书(类似私家图书馆)及唐宋以来的历代私建书院,也使书籍的交流作用得到了发挥。     

The A.D. 79 eruption as a future explosive scenario in the Vesuvian area: evaluation of associated risk

 Due to the lack of an effective policy of planning and prevention, over the past decades the area around Mt. Vesuvio has undergone a steady increase in population and uncontrolled housing development. Consequently, it has become one of the most hazardous volcanic areas in the world. In order to mitigate the damage that the impact of an explosive event would cause in the area, the Department of Civil Defense has worked out an Emergency Management Plan using the A.D. 1631 subplinian eruption as the most probable short-term event. However, from 25 000 years B.P. to present, the activity of the Somma-Vesuvio volcano has shown a sequence of eight eruptive cycles, which always began with a strong plinian eruption. In this paper we utilize the A.D. 79 eruption as an example of a potential large explosive eruption that might occur again at Vesuvio. A detailed tephrostratigraphic analysis of the eruption products was processed by a multivariate statistical analysis. This analysis proved useful for identifying marker layers in the sequences, thus allowing the recognition of some major phases of synchronous deposition and hence the definition of the chronological and spatial evolution of the eruption. By combining this reconstruction with land-use maps, a scenario is proposed with time intervals in the eruptive sequence similar to those reported in Pliny's letter. Thus, it was calculated that, after 7 h from the start of the eruption, a total area of approximately 300 km² would be covered with the eruption products. In the following 11 h, a total area of approximately 500 km² would be involved. The third and last phase of deposition would not cause significant variation in the total area involved, but it would bring about an increase in the thickness of the pyroclastic deposits in the perivolcanic area. Received: 30 November 1996 / Accepted: 29 May 1997     

Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. I: Methodology and hazard investigation

Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probability_e) and the relative importance of the outcome (importance_o). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed.     

地籍信息与社会公共信息整合关系研究

采用文献资料法和比较分析法,建立了由"地籍空间分辨率圆锥"和"地籍时间参照系统"构成的区域地籍信息模型,阐述了现代地籍信息与社会公共信息整合关系在地籍空间定位系统、时间参照系统、边界系统及环境系统中的体现。     

A case study of coping strategies and landslides in two villages of Central-Eastern Nepal

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal’s Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.     

雷击风险评估中Lo损失因子在多线路系统下的细化和改进

2008年推广施行的新国标GB/T 21714.2已广泛应用于各地雷击风险评估业务中。但在实际应用过程中人们也发现用其建立评估模型时,标准的一些简约化约定,使得其计算结果不够精准,特别是描述和处理也显得越来越困难,影响和制约了它的应用范围和前景。为此,本文针对带有多种电气和电子系统的复杂结构建筑,提出按其进线分布特点,对Lo损失因子取值方法进行改进(下文均称"Lo优化取值法"),为多线路进线建筑物的雷击风险管理提供更细化的依据和算法,并举例证实。结果表明:细化考虑不同线路的Lo对于建筑物雷击风险评估更为切近真实。     

Droughts and famines: The underlying factors and the causal links among agro-pastoral households in semi-arid Makueni district, Kenya

Famines are often linked to drought in semi-arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa where not only pastoralists, but also increasingly agro-pastoralists are affected. This study addresses the interplay between drought and famine in the rural semi-arid areas of Makueni district, Kenya, by examining whether, and how crop production conditions and agro-pastoral strategies predispose smallholder households to drought-triggered food insecurity. If this hypothesis holds, then approaches to deal with drought and famine have to target factors causing household food insecurity during non-drought periods. Data from a longitudinal survey of 127 households, interviews, workshops, and daily rainfall records (1961–2003) were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods. This integrated approach confirms the above hypothesis and reveals that factors other than rainfall, like asset and labour constraints, inadequate policy enforcement, as well as the poverty-driven inability to adopt risk-averse production systems play a key role. When linking these factors to the high rainfall variability, farmer-relevant definitions and forecasts of drought have to be applied.     

Risk analysis for clustered check dams due to heavy rainfall

Check dams are commonly constructed around the world for alleviating soil erosion and preventing sedimentation of downstream rivers and reservoirs.Check dams are more vulnerable to failure due to their less stringent flood control standards compared to other dams.Determining the critical precipitation that will result in overtopping of a dam is a useful approach to assessing the risk of failure on a probabilistic basis and for providing early warning in case of an emergency.However,many check dams are built in groups,spreading in several tributaries in cascade forms,comprising a complex network.Determining the critical precipitation for dam overtopping requires a knowledge of its upstream dams on whether they survived or were overtopped during the same storm,while these upstream dams in turn need the information for their upstream dams.The current paper presents an approach of decomposing the dam cluster into(1)the heading dam,(2)border dams,and(3)intermediate dams.The algorithm begins with the border dams that have no upstream dams and proceeds with upgraded maps without the previous border dams until all the dams have been checked.It is believed that this approach is applicable for small-scale check dam systems where the time lag of flood routing can be neglected.As a pilot study,the current paper presents the analytical results for the Wangmaogou Check Dam System that has 22 dams connected in series and parallel.The algorithm clearly identified 7 surviving dams,with the remaining ones being overtopped for a storm of 179.6 mm in 12 h,which is associated with a return period of one in 200 years.     

区域土地资源配置与社会经济发展

文章在阐述土地资源配置与区域社会经济发展的辩证关系的基础上,分别从土地资源供给约束、资源禀赋和利用结构方面探讨了土地资源配置对区域社会经济发展的影响与制约,并对实现十六大提出的全面建设小康社会目标,从土地资源配置角度提出对策与建议。