北京与兰州地区的地闪特征

利用闪电定位系统(LLS)在兰州地区和北京地区探测到的共两万多个地闪资料,对两地的正、负地闪特征进行了对比。分析发现兰州地区的正闪比例是北京地区正闪比例的5倍多。北京地区的正闪平均强度近似为负闪的3倍,而兰州地区的正闪强度只有负闪的2.2倍。无论正闪还是负闪,两地的地闪强度均是稳定的正态分布,并且与雷暴本身的特征无关,从而可用DF强度来作雷暴临近的估计。两地的正、负地闪的回击数均按指数规律下降,不过北京地区的多次回击较兰州地区的多次回击要多。两地的闪电频数都在下午后期出现峰值,但北京地区的闪电频数最大值和最小值都较兰州地区早1小时出现。 通过试验找到了地闪定向仪显示数与闪电辐射电场和放电电流的关系,扩大了地闪定向仪的利用率。     

晚冰期Younger Drayas环境灾变

新仙女木事件(Younger Dryas Event)是过去15000年里全球最为严重的环境灾变事件。它使得冰期气候急剧回返,陆地自然环境严重恶化,并且遣成更新世末期的生物界大绝灭。该事件在深海沉积、大陆冰盖和湖泊沉积物剖面都有多种十分显著的记录。对其成因和机制的研究,将会深入揭示太阳辐射—大气—海洋气—冰盖气—陆地气—生物圈相互作用系统中的非线性反馈现象,为探索人类面临的全球变化问题提供借鉴。     

不同气候情景下中国滨海城市海岸极值水位重现期预估

气候变化背景下,海平面上升叠加台风—风暴潮、天文大潮等产生的海岸极值水位事件趋多增强,对我国滨海城市社会经济可持发展构成了严重威胁。为认识未来我国滨海城市海岸极值水位危害性（强度和频率）的变化,本文首先采用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）数据,分析了不同气候情景下（RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5,简称为RCPs）下,未来不同年代（2030年、2050年和2100年）我国滨海城市沿岸海平面变化幅度;其次,基于沿海验潮站的历史观测资料和文献数据,分析了未来热带气旋强度变化对海岸极值水位的影响;最后,利用皮尔逊Ⅲ型（P-Ⅲ）水文概率曲线方法,预估了不同气候（RCPs）情景下未来不同年代（2030年、2050年和2100年）我国9个滨海城市海岸极值水位重现期的变化。结果表明：（1）在不同气候情景下,我国滨海城市沿海平均海平面均呈现上升趋势,其中,到21世纪末,长三角地区沿海海平面上升幅度最大,上升速度比全国平均高出约30%;（2）热带气旋的强度与台风—风暴潮的增水幅度存在正相关关系。预计到21世纪末,热带气旋的整体强度很可能将增强,热带气旋引发的台风—风暴潮的增水幅度较当前很可能有明显提高。（3）未来我国滨海城市沿海极值水位将有显著增高的趋势,当前极值水位的重现期将明显缩短。到21世纪末,我国滨海城市当前百年一遇的极值水位,重现期几乎都将缩短至20年一遇以下,其中,大连、青岛、上海和厦门等城市海岸极值水位重现期很可能缩短为（或低于）1年一遇。本文虽在一定程度上反映了不同气候情景下海岸洪水危害性的变化,但对于未来热带气旋的变化及其影响的研究尚有待进一步深入。     

Mapping spectral tropicality in The Maid and Return to Pontianak

Contemporary, postcolonial Singapore has tamed, managed, and essentially disavowed its tropicality, aptly captured symbolically as the 'air-conditioned nation'. This essay traces how two recent Singapore horror films, The Maid (2005) and Return to Pontianak (2001), evoke the 'return of the repressed' as a form of haunting that I call 'spectral tropicality'. The films image and imagine this spectral return through unruly bodies (citizen subjects, female domestic workers, ghosts and vampire-ghosts) and uncanny landscapes (the jungle and city). In particular, the films and this analysis examine two sociocultural spectres lurking beneath Singapore as a tropical urban city-nation: the female domestic worker ( The Maid ) and ethnoracial folk beliefs ( The Maid and Return to Pontianak ). The Maid features the Hungry Ghosts Festival in the Chinese religious calendar, ghost marriages and an engagement with yin and yang energies, while Return to Pontianak deals with Malay folk beliefs of semangat ('life force'), and the pontianak, a female vampire-ghost. The Maid attempts to integrate Chinese folk beliefs into contemporary Singapore's cityscape, particularly the architecturally conserved Chinatown shophouses, while Return to Pontianak displaces Malay folk beliefs onto the tropical forest, which is mapped as a threatening other(ed) space and serves as Singapore's tropical doppelganger. Both films suggest that these folk beliefs have an unruly presence within the state's seemingly harmonious and meritocratic ethnoracial ideologies.     

Tsunamigenic incisions produced by the December 2004 earthquake along the coasts of Thailand, Indonesia and Sri Lanka

Field observations and satellite images indicate that tsunami waves exhibit specific patterns during flooding and recession forming characteristic incisions in the coastal landscape. To study these incisions we analyze high resolution remote sensing images of the coastline of Indonesia, Thailand and Sri Lanka impacted by the tsunami of December 26th, 2004. The analysis sheds light on the different mechanisms by which currents scour incisions during the flooding and receding phases of a tsunami. During flooding the high velocity flow indents the levees of existing tidal channels and bays, leaving short flood scours. The receding water then dissects the coastline with equally spaced return channels widening toward the coast.     

On the effect of the sampling frequency of sea level measurements on return period estimate of extremes—Southern European examples

Estimates of extreme sea levels and return periods have been based mainly on hourly sampling rates. Technological development has enabled the sampling rates to increase and sampling rates of 5–10 min are becoming increasingly common. In this paper we explore the relationship between extreme sea levels and estimated return periods based on hourly and shorter sampling periods in three tide-gauges one at the Atlantic coasts of Spain (Coruña), one in the western Mediterranean (Malaga) and one in the N. Adriatic (Trieste). Significant differences of several centimetres are found in the hourly and 5 min extremes. These reflect in significant underestimation of the 50-year return levels which in Trieste reach 38 cm. A theoretical relationship between the high and the low sampling rate of extremes is also tested. Thus updated 50-year return levels for the Mediterranean and the coasts of the Iberian peninsula are produced assuming that the differences identified in the various stations generalise to other tide-gauge (hourly) records for which hourly values have been analysed earlier.     

近距离地闪电场变化及对通道电荷密度分布的响应

一般认为,如果回击过程将先导通道的电荷完全中和,则几十米到几百米范围内的近距离先导电场与回击电场的大小相同,否则,二者之间则存在一定的差异。为了对上述观点进行分析,将源电荷先导模式和MTLL回击模式组合建立了先导-回击模式(这两个模式的组合意味着先导通道的电荷被回击完全中和),对近距离先导-回击电场变化的"V"形结构进行了模拟分析。结果表明,即使假定先导电场被回击完全中和,在近距离30—550m范围回击电场与先导电场强弱关系并不确定。另外,根据进一步的讨论,上述模拟结果几乎不受其他因素,如土壤湿度(该因素直接决定土壤电参数)和地形起伏的影响。因此,在回击开始几十微秒内,基于地面测量的先导-回击电场之差来判断先导通道电荷是否被回击完全中和可能存在一定的不确定。     

Radiocarbon deficiencies of US Gulf Coast lakes compromise paleo-hurricane records

Radiocarbon assays of sediments from Lake Shelby, US Gulf Coast, exhibit substantial ¹⁴C deficiencies of 9.3% and 4.7% for the limnic sapropel and associated fresh-water clams Rangia cuneata, respectively. Measured radiocarbon dates from the sapropel and clams require corrections of 785 ± 80 and 365 ± 90 ¹⁴C yr (1σ), respectively, in order to achieve consistency with the radiocarbon time scale. Lake sediments of the US Gulf Coast serve as unique repositories of pre-historic hurricane strikes. Previously unrecognized radiocarbon deficiencies likely render compromised chronologies of the paleo-hurricane records, and erroneous estimates of return period and landfall probability that are derived from the storm chronologies. The recalculated severe hurricane chronologies suggest that the annual landfall probabilities of the last millennium on the US Gulf Coast are equal to, or higher than, the preceding three millennia.     

四川盆地短历时强降水极值分布的研究

运用广义帕雷托分布(GPD)和广义极值分布(GEV),借助于L-矩的参数估计方法,对四川盆地12站的小时极端降水量进行拟合,并对两种模型的拟合效果进行比较。运用Hill图,结合统计量D*来确定GPD的最佳门限值是合适的,选出的样本是独立的。各站的小时极端降水概率分布均符合GPD和GEV,但GPD模型的拟合精度要优于GEV模型。利用两种模型推算出各站给定重现期的最大小时降水量,其中泸州50 a一遇和100 a一遇的降水极值分位数都超过了100 mm,除了遂宁站外,两种模型估计出的极值分位数的相对误差基本都在10%以下。通过分析,GPD推算的结果更加可靠。